Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - January 2025 Market Report

It's time to turn the page once more. The calendar has officially flipped from 2024 to 2025, and with that, we officially turn our attention toward our Dynasty leagues. Sure, there are still some post-season tournaments and a Super Bowl Champion still to be crowned, but putting in the work now can get fantasy managers ahead of that dead period between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft.

Each month, our team of RotoBaller experts, which includes Brandon Murchison (@RotoSuperstar), Jorden Hill (@JordenHill95), Matt Terrelle (@SuperMT), and myself (@MattDonnellyFF), update our dynasty rankings as the market changes.

Looking at our monthly consensus, we can identify fantasy football's biggest risers and those fantasy assets trending downward to allow you to stay ahead of the competition. With this insight and the dynasty trade chart, you can buy low and sell high as the market adjusts.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings (January 2025)

Trending Upward

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks (+18)

Previous rank: 39

Current rank: 21

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise to fantasy managers to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba's name as one of the top fantasy risers. Throughout December, between weeks 13 and 16, the Seahawks pass catcher was averaging 18.5 fantasy points per contest. That production put him between a pair of elite fantasy receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.7) and CeeDee Lamb (17.9) on a per-game basis.

From Week 9 through Week 16, Smith-Njigba produced at least 18 fantasy points in six of those seven contests. Focusing on December numbers, Smith-Njigba averaged 7.8 targets per game and a 32.4% target share. There was a change of guard in Seattle as D.K. Metcalf saw a 17.5% target share and averaged just 5.6 targets per game over that period.

Expect Smith-Njigba to continue to see his value trend upward for much of the offseason. This season, the former Buckeye finished with 100 receptions, an increase of 37 from his previous season. He also increased his yardage from 628 as a rookie to 1,130 this past season thanks to a significant adjustment in targets that saw him targeted on 44 more occasions.

Elite connection from Geno to JSN 🎯

📺: #MINvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ZGPe2ArI0R

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

Breaking down the data a little further. In 2023, Smith-Njigba saw a 19% target per route run rate, an average depth of target of 6.4 yards, and a yards per route run of 1.32. Over the five-week sample in December, the target per route run jumped to 25%, the aDot increased to 9.7 yards, while he also improved by a full yard, finishing at 2.36 yards per route run.

Smith-Njigba is on the precipice of fantasy greatness. Currently, he sits as the WR13 in fantasy jockeying for position inside that Top 12 alongside names like Rashee Rice, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., and Tee Higgins.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (+23)

Previous rank: 75

Current rank: 52

Depending on how the Bengals attack this offseason, Chase Brown is another dynasty asset that may not have hit its peak value yet. In December, Brown ran for 323 yards on 89 rushing attempts and added another 153 yards on 19 receptions. 

If you put Browns season next to Joe Mixon's, the numbers are closer than one may have predicted back in August. Brown's 990 rushing yards were three fewer than Mixons, while Mixon's 12 total touchdowns bested Brown by one.

Brown was the more consistent of the two, finishing with 17 explosive runs and only 19 negative runs this season compared to Mixon's 20 explosive runs and 35 negative ones. In the passing game, Brown surpassed Mixon, hauling in 54 receptions for 360 yards to Mixon's 304 receiving yards on 35 receptions.

Chase Brown vs Joe Mixon comparison pic.twitter.com/VtZxnVYmnh

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) December 30, 2024

Only Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Josh Jacobs averaged more fantasy points per game than Brown's 19.3 in December. With that strong finish to the season, it's no wonder that Brown jumped the shark and moved up my dynasty rankings. Heading into post-season action, Brown sits comfortably as my RB7.

At just 24 years of age, Brown gave the Bengals no reason to take a deeper look at addressing the running back position as they have their answer in-house with the Canadian playmaker. 

Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (+21)

Previous rank: 173

Current rank: 152

Everyone loves a good redemption story. Over the last couple of seasons, we have seen quarterback castaways such as Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff, and this season, Sam Darnold rise from the ashes and insert themselves as an every-week starter. Back in September, Bryce Young was heading down the path of being labeled a draft bust and was benched because of his third-down inefficiency.

One question now being asked is, "Would you rather." Would you rather Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud? The numbers are leaning considerably in Young's favor over the last 10 games. With nearly the same number of passing attempts (318 for Stroud and 319 for Young), Young has an edge in passing yards, total touchdowns, adjusted net yards per attempt, and fantasy points.

C.J. Stroud vs. Bryce Young@FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/lGrRPmFu6I

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) January 6, 2025

Young still has some work to do to provide a sense of vindication for those who believed in him coming out of college, but we are starting to see what made him special at Alabama. For Young to take that next step, it's on Carolina management to put the proper pieces in place for their franchise quarterback to succeed.

Adding a true alpha receiver would go a long way for Young's development as an NFL quarterback and as a valuable fantasy addition. Look at that five-touchdown conclusion to his sophomore campaign.

Other Notable Risers: Jameson Williams (+12), Chuba Hubbard (+13), Zach Charbonnet (+12), Sam Darnold (+13), Jonnu Smith (+32), Jalen McMillan (+26)

Trending Downward 

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (-19)

Previous rank: 61

Current rank: 80

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. This still feels high for the Pitts, and I expect his value to drop some more before the start of the 2025 NFL season. With a new year comes a new Pitts? Stop me if you have heard that before.

There was hope again for Pitts ahead of the 2024 season with Kirk Cousins coming to town. A quarterback who had a history of peppering his tight ends with targets during his tenures in Washington (Jordan Reed) and Minnesota (T.J. Hockenson), so it was widely believed that there was a possibility that Pitts's production would once again meet promise.

That was not the case, as Pitts would average just 8.0 fantasy points per game with Cousins and saw his fantasy production fall outside that top 12.

So if Cousins, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke were the problem, then surely, Michael Penix Jr. would fix whatever was ailing Pitts, right? Nope. In the three weeks we saw Penix under center, Pitts averaged 6.5 fantasy points per game, hauling in seven passes for 66 yards and a touchdown. 

It's more than just fantasy where we see Pitts struggle. In the small sample in which Penix was under center, Pitts saw just 10 targets in three games. That works out to a 10% target share, accounting for a 7.3% air yard share and just 9.0% of the Falcons team receiving market share.

That isn't going to get fantasy managers excited. If looking for opportunities, we don't see those either, with 63.6% routes per drop back, which was lower than Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet, and Noah Fant.

Zach Ertz, whose best days are long behind him, hauled in 64 receptions for 631 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Pitts, who was considered a "generational" talent, had 46 receptions, 596 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. You would be happy if you could get Jauan Jennings or Zach Charbonnet for Pitts via trade.

34 year old "washed" Zach Ertz...
▪️ 64 receptions / 631 yards / 7 TDs

24 year old "generational" Kyle Pitts...
▪️ 46 receptions / 596 yards / 4 TDs pic.twitter.com/Au4hY7aJ39

— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) January 5, 2025

Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville (-16)

Previous rank: 80

Current rank: 96

In 15 games this season, Travis Etienne Jr. produced 558 rushing yards on 150 rushing attempts (3.7 yards per carry). Etienne contributed  254 receiving yards on 29 receptions, which boosted his fantasy production to 130.2 fantasy points this season, which is suitable for RB35.

For a little perspective, Jonathan Taylor produced 102.5 fantasy points over the Colts' final four contests, running for 623 yards and six touchdowns.

Okay, forget about Taylor. Let's look at Etienne's backfield mate, Tank Bigsby. Bigsby was the more productive back in the run game this season. The 22-year-old back out of Auburn averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season, churning out 766 rushing yards on 168 attempts. That's not what fantasy managers want to hear after drafting Etienne as the RB7 back in August.

Travis Etienne was the RB7 in fantasy drafts this summer.

He finished the year with 200 fewer rushing yards than Kareem Hunt. pic.twitter.com/zWjRIct2JX

— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) December 30, 2024

Now, let's look at how Etienne closed out the 2024 season. His 187 rushing yards since Week 14 were the 27th-most. The Jaguars "lead-back" averaged 37.4 rushing yards per game and had an explosive run rate of 1.8% (runs greater than 15 yards). 

Last season, Etienne forced 58 missed tackles, 0.22 per attempt. This season, just 13, and since Week 14, Etienne forced just three missed tackles at 0.05 missed tackles forced per attempt. If Doug Pederson's dismissal was a "business" decision, fantasy managers would need to make a business decision on Etienne's future sooner rather than later.

Amari Cooper, WR, Buffalo Bills (-15)

Previous rank: 84

Current rank: 99

I'll admit it: I thought it would be great for fantasy when Amari Cooper was dealt to the Bills, not only for Cooper but for Josh Allen, who would get that Alpha receiver back after the Bills traded away Stefan Diggs ahead of the 2024 season. I could not have been more wrong.

In the nine games with the Bills since the trade, Cooper has registered 297 receiving yards on 20 receptions. In six games with the Browns, Cooper had 250 receiving yards.

Cooper sat out Week 18, but in Weeks 14 through 17, Cooper's 161 receiving yards was the 53rd-most in the NFL. Cooper saw a 14.8% target share in that window with an 18.6% first-read target share. A couple of metrics I have found that help determine fantasy success have been first downs per route run and fantasy points per route run.

Here, we can see that Coopers' 0.106 1D/RR ranks 66th alongside Sterling Shepard and Alec Pierce, while his 0.49 FP/RR sits 62nd along with Jamison Crowder and Ben Skowronek.

For Cooper managers, there is still some time to recover some value. We know that Cooper is talented, so with a productive post-season, all could be forgiven. 

Other Notable Fallers: Kenneth Walker III (-6), Jayden Reed (-6), C.J. Stroud (-6), Cedric Tillman (-10), Diontae Johnson (-22), Kirk Cousins (-9)

Dynasty Trade Value Chart

Names to Know

Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (+66)

Previous rank: 287

Current rank: 221

One name to watch this offseason is Parker Washington of the Jacksonville Jaguars. We already know that Brian Thomas Jr. is a certified stud. We also know that Christian Kirk and Evan Engram missed time this season, opening the door for Washington to showcase his talents.

In December, Washington caught 20 passes in five contests for 257 receiving yards, 39th-most. Over that period, the sophomore receiver earned a 16.1% target share and a 27.4% air yards share, accounting for 21.2% of the Jaguars receiving market share. That's a lot of shares for a receiver that not many people are talking about.

There's plenty to like about Washington and what he offers as a pass catcher and route runner, which is why we saw healthy yards per target (8.86) and yards per reception (12.85) numbers down the stretch we afforded an opportunity.

What a grab by Parker Washington!

📺: #TENvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/gN9eynZ2T1

— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2024

Washington is a stash player at this point. We don't know what the offseason has in store down in Duval County for this Jaguars team or for Washington. One thing we do know is Washington is a player worth keeping an eye on.

Maximize Return

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns (+33)

Previous rank: 104

Current rank: 71

If you are into gambling, then it's understandable why you are still currently rostering Jerry Jeudy. Holding Jeudy right now feels like asking the Blackjack dealer to hit you when you already have a pair of kings. Sure, you may get dealt an ace, and Jeudy could be the receiver you are looking for, or you could "bust," which seems to be the most likely scenario of the two.

People tend to forget that Jeudy is still only 25 years old. Hence, some were surprised by the Browns' player's breakout season, in which he would finish with 1,229 receiving yards on 90 receptions.

When you look at the numbers, it's also easy to see why Jeudy saw his value increase even more in December. Only Ja'Mar Chase and Justin Jefferson produced more receiving yards in December than the 521 that Jeudy posted. Jeudy's 39 receptions in December were among the league's top five.

Every bit of data I can pull tells me that Jeudy is good at football. His air yards share was 35.6%, his target share was 25.2%, and his team receiving market share was 43.4%, second only to Puka Nacua. The problem isn't what we know; it's what we don't know.

For example, we don't know if DeShaun Watson, who is recovering from an Achilles injury, will be the starter next season. We saw how that recovery from that injury went for both Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins this season, and it wasn't good. We don't know if the Browns will select Cam Ward of Miami or Shedeur Sanders of Colorado in hopes of landing a franchise quarterback.

With the Browns quarterback history, it feels like whoever they choose will be the wrong choice. Jeudy's dynasty value right now is similar to that of Jameson Williams, Jaylen Waddle, and even Rome Odunze, all of whom I feel more comfortable rostering. You can even fetch a late first-round rookie pick if you play your cards right. 

Buy the Dip

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (-6)

Previous rank: 11

Current rank: 17

It's not much of a dip, but it's worth buying. Especially if a league mate has grown frustrated with Marvin Harrison Jr.'s performance this season, Harrison finished his rookie campaign with 62 receptions and 885 receiving yards.

Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, and Ladd McConkey all received over 1,000 yards this season, and all were likely drafted after Harrison in fantasy drafts. Even Bucky Irving of the Buccaneers had a 1,000-yard season.

On my Dynasty Trade Chart, Harrison's value didn't change much. The Cardinals receiver should still be considered a top-10 to top-14 dynasty receiver. We often see Thomas, Drake London, Rashee Rice, Tee Higgins, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in that range. That is more than fair, and managers should consider the rookie as a blue-chip fantasy asset just as they did before the season started. 

Even with the perceived struggles, Harrison hauled in 21 passes for 276 receiving yards from Week 13 on. His 610 air yards in December were more than any other pass catcher, as he also bolstered an air yards share of 53%, which was also a league-best.

Despite the air yards and the 22.6% target share, it's hard to produce with a 47.7% catch rate. Of the 44 targets Harrison saw thrown in his direction, only 65.9% were deemed targets that the receiver had an opportunity to catch.

If I am holding anything but a top-3 rookie pick, I am throwing it at the current Harrison manager and seeing if I can get him to bite. With rookie fever around the corner, pick 1.04 may be enough to entice another manager looking to get a return on a previous investment.