D/ST Matchups to Target in Wild Card Round - Chargers, Rams, Bucs

Thunder Dan's favorite D/ST matchups to exploit for Wild Card Weekend of 2025 - DFS defenses to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These D/ST matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

It's a great feeling when you play ta defense and special teams unit in DFS and get double-digit points while a lot of the field is stuck with an underperforming unit.

DFS players tend to pay down for cheap defenses in cash games to save as much salary as possible, but paying up for defenses with upside is one way to be contrarian in tournaments. And we don't have to avoid games with high totals; sometimes those games produce a lot of offensive value and value for defenses, too, through turnovers, defensive touchdowns, or special teams touchdowns.

So, let's break down what we think are this week's best options at this position. The choices are a bit limited with only 12 teams to choose from and not any bad offenses to pick on.

L.A. Chargers D/ST @ Houston Texans

$3.2k on DraftKings, $4.4k on FanDuel

The Chargers are one of the best defenses taking the field this weekend and I like this matchup for them as they face a Houston team that was slumping down the stretch and has hobbled into the playoffs. Not only have the Chargers been keeping opponents off the scoreboard (17.7 points allowed is the best mark in the NFL), but they've also been able to rush the passer successfully and create turnovers.

Derwin James is healthy and ready to anchor the secondary, while Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack bring pressure from the outside. The Texans allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, which was the worst mark of any of the playoff teams in action this weekend.

The Chargers’ defense has been stingy all season long. 💪 pic.twitter.com/t0LagNNTna

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) January 1, 2025

The Chargers piled up 46 sacks while also snagging 15 interceptions. C.J. Stroud took 54 sacks this season which was the fourth-most in the NFL. He also threw 12 interceptions (fourth-most) as he struggled to replicate the success of his rookie season. Stroud has lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell this season to injury and has very few weapons other than Nico Collins to rely on.

It could be a long day for Stroud and the Houston offense against a very formidable Chargers group.

L.A. Rams D/ST vs. Minnesota Vikings

$2.9k on DraftKings, $3.9k on FanDuel

Sam Darnold is coming off his worst game of the season and will be under a huge amount of pressure this week to right the ship as the Vikings would have to view a first-round exit from the playoffs after winning 14 regular season games a huge disappointment.

Darnold had a career year as the starter for the Vikings, but let's not forget that he did throw 12 picks (tied for fourth-most with Stroud). The book on Darnold is that he has been very good against the blitz, but has made some poor reads and decisions when teams play zone and drop more guys into coverage. Look for the Rams to load up against the run and then play zone in passing downs as they don't have the personnel to play man coverage against Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson.

Didn't realize just how good the Rams defense has been since the Week 7 bye:

🔵10th in defense EPA.
🟡Allowed passer rating of 82.5 (5th).
🔵5.57 average net yards per pass attempt (7th)
🟡Rank 8th in run defense success rate
🔵Explosive run on 3.1% (5th)

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) January 10, 2025

While the Rams got run over earlier in the season, their defense was quietly much better in the second half. If we throw out the 30 points their backups allowed to Seattle in Week 18, they had a very impressive 3-game stretch in Weeks 14-16 where they allowed fewer than 10 points to Arizona, New York (Jets), and San Francisco. They will be very sneaky this week as a lot of players will avoid their defense due to the matchup with a high-octane Vikings offense.

Tampa Bay D/ST vs. Washington Commanders

$3.1k on DraftKings, $4.2k on FanDuel

No one is going to play Tampa's defense, it's that simple. Most rostership projections predict that they will be one of the lightest-rostered D/ST units on the slate. They were right in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed (22.7) per game but forced only seven interceptions. They did, however, recover ten fumbles and were sixth in sacks (46).

As amazing as Jayden Daniels has been this season, let's not forget that he is a rookie and that rookie QBs don't just waltz into the NFL playoffs and win on the road that often. It simply doesn't happen that often. Daniels has done well protecting the ball this season, tossing just 9 interceptions, however he loves to scramble which can put him at risk of fumbling.

If this game does end up being high-scoring, it doesn't mean that it can't also be a productive game for the defenses, too. More points means more possessions and potential for sacks and turnovers, especially if the Commanders resort to throwing the ball more against a pass-funnel Bucs defense.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

More Weekly DFS Analysis