DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Sony Open Golf Advice With Ben Griffin, Michael Thorbjornsen, Jacob Bridgeman, Chandler Phillips and More (2025)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Sony Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Sony

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Sony

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
• In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
• Units: +340.903 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2025
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record:
• (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles

• Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

Field

Field Size: 144
Cut: No-Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 6

Last Five Winners of the Sony

Expected Cut-Line at the Sony

Waialae Country Club

7,044 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda

Designed in 1925 by Seth Raynor, Waialae Country Club has seen a few modifications over the last 100 years, including a 2016 renovation by Tom Doak to restore and infuse the original feel back into the layout. All of that radiates out of the course with its flat, tedious setup that emphasizes par-four scoring and ball striking. However, it is paramount to remember that while we will be staying in Hawaii for the second consecutive week, the only parallels I can spot between the two properties would be the Hawaiian Bermuda-style grass and a similar resemblance when it comes to ease.

Much narrower fairways and the aforementioned flat nature of the grounds will remove some of that undulation and wide-open feel that Kapalua presented at Kapalua. The straightforward layout may be the main culprit for why the venue ranks as the second most predictive in terms of rollover success, behind only Augusta National. Still, it is not as if we don't have some highly pronounced trends with the data when trying to calculate a model for the week.

We see that come into play with the emphasized proximity distribution out of Waialae from 125-200 yards, a range that creates 67.4% of the total shots and 12.6% more impact than a typical test. The hard-to-hit fairways did have me flip the new-school moniker of distance over accuracy, and the ability to score on an easy test that has average-to-fast Bermuda greens consistently graded as one of the central answers if you wanted to find success.

Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance 

***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold.

Winners

OTT - 17.9%
APP - 32.4%
ATG  - 7.5%
Putt - 42.1%

Top Five Performers

OTT - 17%
APP - 31.9%
ATG  - 12.1%
Putt - 39%

Top 10 Performers

OTT - 17.5%
APP - 31.7%
ATG  - 12.5%
Putt - 38.3%

Top 20 Performers

OTT - 18%
APP - 34%
ATG  - 12%
Putt - 36%

Cut Makers 

OTT - 18.3%
APP - 33.3%
ATG  - 12.9%
Putt - 35.5%

Miss Cut

OTT - 18.1%
APP - 33.3%
ATG  - 12.2%
Putt - 36.4%

Perhaps the consistency of predictability that Waialae produces can be directly correlated to the flat distribution for all areas of finishing on the board.

To win, you need to hit more GIRs and spike with your putter like most events. However, this is one of the steadier outputs you will ever see.

Profiles That Most Closely Resemble That Of Past Winners

This doesn't mean these are the most likely players to win the title, but what it does suggest is that these players are most similar statistically to those who have won here in the past:

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

Strokes Gained Total: Recent (10%)

Short Par 70s  (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Removing Putting (10%)

Similar Profiles (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted BOB (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

My model saw a ton of value in that triple-digit section of the board.

It doesn't mean I didn't like the top (price not being considered), but I decided to sprinkle shots throughout at a little more than 0.50 units of risk.

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at the top 50 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

A handful of outright bets for me have made this list.

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

Golfers to Land in the Top 35 of the Field for All Categories

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I always like these situations where someone projects sub-par in my model the week before entering a course that will better suit their game if they post a high-end finish because of realistically good play.

It is never perfect for the week you get them incorrect, but it typically renders a buy-high spot the following event because my model believes we have an in-form golfer now getting a course that suits their skill set.

Unfortunately, this spot is accompanied by that golfer capturing the title and nuking his price tag and ownership higher than we may have seen before, but I don't have much of a gripe against either Matsuyama (or even Conners). 

Conners graded as one of five players to grade top-35 in all seven categories, while Hideki carried three first-place grades -- which includes topping the charts for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, Weighted Strokes Gained Total (Without Putting) and first when diving into similar profiles who have found success at this course historically.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

One of the reasons I am more inclined to pay up for Hideki comes down to this belief within my model that we have multiple spots I am lower on than consensus here in the $9,000 section. 

Names like Byeong Hun An and Si Woo Kim are going to carry more ownership than some may project because of their past success at the Sony. I know I have talked about how this course delivers higher predictability than any tournament that isn't the Masters, but it feels to me as if we are talking about fine cash-game plays who may have capped ceilings entering the week. 

I would rather shoot for the fence with an equally popular option like Russell Henley or a marginally lower-owned name like Keegan Bradley or Maverick McNealy. 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I always talk about the profile inside of my model from Ben Griffin when placing him on a Bermuda property versus anywhere else in the world.

My math ranked Griffin inside the top-six when diving into six of the seven categories this week:

Is that first-place return in my sheet too strong for someone who failed to grade better than third in any singular category and hasn't won on tour out of 76 starts? Probably...But the profile is immaculate for Bermuda complexes, and the price tag is way too cheap for the overall profile that he presents in Hawaii.

I will take my shots at 55/1 in the outright market, but the true playability pushes right into this direction on DraftKings.

The spot that is most likely to burn me would be Davis Thompson, based on where I have him ranked. I understand the history he has presented in his short career when faced with an easy facility. However, there are some concerns past his pure birdie-making potential.

Thompson ranked outside the top 100 of this field on similar Par 70s and generated some all-over-the-map retrievals. The upside will be pronounced, but a highly owned version of him would likely be a pass for me.

That will be decided when we get a better idea of ownership.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

You can mix and match a lot of my outright choices with the names in this section that didn't make my card.

I decided to roll with options like Michael Thorbjornsen, Chandler Phillips, Seamus Power and Mac Meissner, but we will dive deeper into these options later in the week when I provide my Vegas Report article.

I also talked about Michael Thorbjornsen inside Discord early on Monday and how I did find an edge with him in a matchup against Nick Dunlap. We shot that price to the moon before it eventually fell back down, but the value in this section makes me willing to 1. live in this area and 2. leave some money on the table since my totals for the top handful of these choices are very similar to the players directly above them in price.

I could make a strong case for any of those options listed above.

$6,000 Options to Consider

I am going to reiterate this answer that I give weekly.

Someone being ranked as the number one player in my sheet for "Win Profiles That Feature Similar Strokes Gained Dispersion" doesn't mean that player is the most likely victor. However, what it does suggest is that past winners have most closely yielded that statistical makeup. 

The fact that three $6,000 players fit that answer does tell me this is a wide-open course to produce a long-shot victor. I have built my card as such.

Jacob Bridgeman was a statistical darling inside of my model this week, ranking inside the top-10 six times -- including a recent first-place rank for Strokes Gained Total when I remove my weighted data.

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Hideki Matsuyama
$9,000+ - Keegan Bradley/Maverick McNealy/Russell Henley
$8,000+ - Ben Griffin
$7,000+ - I liked the entire section shown above. I will have most in my player pool
$6,000+ - Jacob Bridgeman

Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

***This still has time to change

$10,000+ - None
$9,000+ - Byeong Hun An 
$8,000+ - Davis Thompson (if ownership lands as high as I think it might) Otherwise, we can dive back into this
$7,000+ - Matthew McCarty, Max McGreevy, Nick Dunlap, Adam Hadwin
$6,000+ - Jake Knapp

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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