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Dave's running back start 'em, sit 'em picks for fantasy football playoffs - Week 18 (2024). Expert RB lineups advice for fantasy football start/sit decisions.
While most fantasy football leagues crowned a champion last week, there are still a handful of leagues deciding their title this week. That means we’ve got one last weekend of work left before we can finally put up our feet and relax.
Week 18 can be tricky for fantasy managers as many teams have already secured playoff berths. This means some teams won’t be playing their starters, and that can have a ripple effect throughout the fantasy football world. It becomes an even bigger problem when deciding who to start at running back. Not to worry, though; we’ve done our best to navigate the minefield that is Week 18 and present some viable start/sit options for managers still vying for a fantasy football title.
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Week 18 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Zach Charbonnet - RB, Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
With Kenneth Walker III being placed on injured reserve, Charbonnet is in line for another start this weekend. He is coming off a down game last Thursday against the Chicago Bears but did pop for 134 rushing yards and two touchdowns several weeks ago against the Arizona Cardinals.
ZACH CHARBONNET 51-YARD TD!
📺: #SEAvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/P492n4pkXU— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
This week, Charbonnet goes against a Rams defense that ranks 20th in defensive rushing DVOA per FTN Fantasy and allows over 130 rushing yards per game. Los Angeles is also expected to rest many starters in this game, and as a result, Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite.
That all suggests Seattle will be playing in a neutral or positive game script for most of this contest, which should mean plenty of touches for Charbonnet. Gamers can fire him up as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2.
Michael Carter - RB, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
James Conner and Trey Benson are both out this week. That leaves Carter as the team’s RB1. He filled in nicely for Conner in Week 17 and ran for 70 yards on 13 carries. Carter gets a chance to keep the momentum rolling this Sunday against the 49ers.
San Francisco’s defense has not played to the same level we’ve grown accustomed to seeing the last few years, and they’ve struggled defending opposing rushers. The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to running backs this year per Fantasy Football Today and rank 25th in defensive rushing DVOA.
Gamers should start Carter as an RB2 or flex this weekend. He has a good matchup and should receive plenty of volume.
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Robinson has enjoyed his best season as a pro this year. He’s set career highs in yards per attempt and rushing touchdowns and needs nine yards to set a new career high in rushing yards as well.
Blink and you'll miss this Brian Robinson Jr. 39-yard touchdown run! 💨💨💨
(via @Commanders)pic.twitter.com/lyUFktrr72
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 1, 2024
The third-year back gets another great matchup this week as he faces a Cowboys defense that allows over 138 rushing yards per game. With Washington looking to secure the No. 6 seed in the NFC and, more importantly, avoid a first-round date with the Philadelphia Eagles, they have every reason to play for the win on Sunday.
Robinson should see plenty of work and has a great chance to break the century mark for the fourth time this year. Gamers should start him as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2.
Ray Davis - RB, Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
With the Buffalo Bills locked into the AFC’s number two seed, they will be resting players in this game. Starting running back James Cook figures to be one of them. Since he is only 19 yards shy of the 1K mark, Buffalo might give him a few carries early to reach that milestone. After that, though, it should be the Ray Davis Show.
RAY DAVIS. 63-yard TD for the lead!
📺: #MIAvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/N5btgphjZ2— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
The Patriots have struggled to defend the run all season. They allow over 131 rushing yards per game, rank 28th in defensive rushing DVOA, and allow the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing backs.
Even with Buffalo resting most starters, they are still good enough to beat this Patriots team. There’s a good chance they ride Davis’ legs to do so. Gamers can fire him up as a midrange RB2, as he should find the endzone and might even go over the century mark on the ground as well.
Other RB Starts: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Rico Dowdle, Audric Estime, Isaac Guerendo
Week 18 Concerns - Fantasy Football Busts
D’Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Swift has struggled during his first season in Chicago. He’s averaging a career-low 3.84 yards per carry and ranks dead last in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE).
Chicago takes on a Packers defense that has been much better against the run this year. They allow the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game and rank sixth in defensive rushing DVOA. The Bears are also 10-point underdogs this week, and that suggests they will be playing from behind for the majority of this game. That would mean Swift would have fewer opportunities on the ground.
While Swift has had a few nice games, the reality is that he hasn’t been very good this year. His only saving grace has been volume. Gamers in need of an RB2 should look elsewhere.
Alexander Mattison - RB, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Ameer Abdullah has missed multiple practices this week and has now been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Chargers. That puts Mattison in line to start. While that might initially seem like a good thing, this isn’t the ideal spot to deploy him.
The Chargers rank sixth in PFF’s rushing defense grade and allow the eighth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing rushers. There’s some speculation on whether or not Los Angeles will rest their starters, but head coach Jim Harbaugh has stated they plan to win the game. That doesn’t sound like a man intending to rest his players.
While Mattison is seemingly in line for a heavy workload, it’s worth pointing out that the Raiders already turned away from Mattison as the lead-back earlier this year because he was ineffective. They may have been on to something, as Mattison currently ranks 41st out of 45 eligible backs in RYOE. Gamers should consider other options in their championship match.
Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Pollard is set to resume lead-back duties for the Titans, with Tyjae Spears being forced out of action with a concussion. The sixth-year back will face little competition for touches on Sunday.
Tony Pollard ices the game with a last minute TD. #TENvsMIA pic.twitter.com/DXpINtz03y
— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2024
However, head coach Brian Callahan has stated the team intends to play both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis at quarterback to better gauge the position for 2025. Starting multiple quarterbacks is usually bad news for an offense, and it could spell trouble for Pollard.
Houston coach DeMeco Ryans has also stated the team is not considering resting players at this time. The Texans have scuffled down the homestretch, so it would make sense for the team to try and build momentum heading into the playoffs. That could mean Pollard faces the full force of a Houston defense that ranks fifth in defensive rushing DVOA.
Pollard is a volume-based RB2 play this weekend, but it might behoove managers to look elsewhere to secure a fantasy football title.
Other RB Sits: Rhamondre Stevenson, Raheem Blackshear, and all Panthers RBs, Travis Etienne
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