DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Sentry Golf Advice With Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns and More (2025)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Sentry. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Sentry

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Sentry

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
• In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
• Units: +340.903 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2025
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record:
• (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles

• Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

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• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

Field

Field Size: 57
Cut: No-Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 14

Last Five Winners of the Sentry

Expected Cut-Line at the Sentry

Kapalua Plantation Course

7,596 Yards - Par 73 - Greens: Bermuda

Designed in 1991 by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore, the minor restorations done to Kapalua over the past 33 years have yet to augment the challenge. We see that answer front and center, with 125 of 135 golfers finishing 10-under par or better at the course over the past three seasons.

Slow Bermuda green complexes and wide-open fairways are pronounced from the second you step onto the grounds. It is worth noting that the slow greens will generate a different ask than you typically would get from a birdie-making facility.

However, the general straightforward proclivity directly stems from the 11% increase in driving accuracy and the 10-yard upsurge in driving distance. Those two factors help proliferate the GIR uptick from 65% to 79%, yielding one of the highest percentages on tour.

As I noted above, Kapalua does possess more scrambling and three-putt avoidance than most birdie shootouts because of the velcro-like nature of these gargantuan green complexes. It is likely one of the main reasons why a non-American has won this event 11 times since 2002.

In fairness, that is one way to sway numbers to fit a narrative since saying an American has won this title 11 times during the same duration provides the reverse sentiment of what I just expressed, but the point remains to look heavily into scrambling and the massive inflation regarding proximity within 100 yards (nearly 20% of shots).

Added distance does help because of the layout's wide-open structure, but I am more intrigued by how players increase their projection when given easy fairways and limited rough over the rudimentary expectation of length off the tee.

Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance 

***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold.

Winners

OTT - 17.2%
APP - 27.5%
ATG  - 17.5%
Putt - 37.8%

Top Five Performers

OTT - 19.5%
APP - 38.5%
ATG  - 13.3%
Putt - 28.7%

Top 10 Performers

OTT - 21.3%
APP - 35.6%
ATG  - 12.9%
Putt - 30.2%

Top 20 Performers

OTT - 25.3%
APP - 36.5%
ATG  - 13.8%
Putt - 24.4%

Cut Makers (No Cut This Week)

OTT -
APP -
ATG  -
Putt -

One of the factors you might notice is that the better you are off-the-tee at this course, the more correlated you are for safer results.

Also, scrambling and short-game totals helped to decide most winners. That was one of the answers I was trying to express when talking about this being a unique scoring venue.

Profiles That Most Closely Resemble That Of Past Winners

This doesn't mean these are the most likely players to win the title, but what it does suggest is that these players are most similar statistically to those who have won here in the past:

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

Strokes Gained Total: Easy (10%)

Weighted Distance + Proximity + ATG  (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Wind (5%)

Strokes Gained Total - Hawaii (5%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted BOB (10%)

Weighted Scramble (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Eight Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at the top 50 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

It is very interesting to see the rise of names like Thompson/Bhatia/Clark. 

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

*** Using Top 35 this week (excluded Hawaii & Wind)

Golfers to Land in the Top 25 of the Field for All Categories

(excluded Hawaii & Wind)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

No Scottie. No Rory. Hell, no other $10,000+ players other than Xander Schauffele at this moment after DraftKings forgot to put Collin Morikawa as a choice during their initial release of the field.

Let's not get it twisted that this wonky pricing distribution will alter roster construction for DFS players, but let's see how initial ownership projections for the event go before locking in any decisions

I don't believe Morikawa gets as much of a discount in ownership as some might project for not being a listed option since anyone aware that DraftKings removed him from the field will likely be your diehard fans, although each passing moment could change that narrative.

Schauffele and Morikawa are the deserving betting favorites for outright wagers.

***DraftKings placed Morikawa at $10,100 early on Monday. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Part of the reason my model didn't love Ludvig Aberg stemmed from his negative metrics compared to similar dispersion expectations from past winners at Kapalua. The floor projections will render a better outlook if the market moves entirely against him, but I still prefer my contrarian answer to land with Sam Burns.

Burns has been horrific in Hawaii throughout his career and will likely carry minimal ownership. I don't think the safety presents much optimism, but I have been a big advocate that 2025 will be the season Burns takes a step forward. This gives us a chance in GPP contests to bet on that upside.

Sungjae Im and Justin Thomas were the other two options graded as positive values before considering ownership. 

I would guess that the duo goes off as the two highest-owned players in this section since there are a lot of questions regarding other names, but it is hard to ignore the fact that they have combined for seven top-13 finishes over their past eight starts at this venue. 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I am going to find myself living in this section.

Akshay Bhatia, Wyndham Clark, Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, and Adam Scott all presented increased win equity projections when trying to find high-end climbers for similar game types who have won this title.

Wyndham Clark is going to be my favorite choice from that group. Clark only possesses a 47th-place rank in this field for Strokes Gained: Hawaii, but it is important to note that we are talking about a golfer who only has had two chances in the state: a 2019 missed cut at the Sony and last year's 29th at the Sentry.

Let's remove the Sony event altogether since it is a different venue that wouldn't have rewarded his skill set at any point in his career, especially before he became a major champion. Plus, I like that the market is lower on him after a "sub-par" performance last season at the Sentry that still saw him get to 19-under par.

Margins are thin on the PGA Tour, and Clark's seven top-10 returns out of eight categories this week inside my model will go a long way when betting on his upside.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

My model found its most interest in Si Woo Kim, Davis Thompson, Taylor Pendrith, J.T. Poston, and Keegan Bradley. 

Thompson and Bradley were both close for me in the outright market because of Thompson's scoring on easy courses and Bradley's resemblance to past winners. 

On the flip side, I am going to be lower than consensus on Cameron Young and Jake Knapp. I get the upside potential, but it always comes with heightened ownership from within the space.

$6,000 Options to Consider

While I will still deploy Harry Hall at some level, many of the returns inside my model come from weaker fields. It isn't enough to get me off him entirely since a weaker course still suits his game, but I do think his rank inside my model is marginally skewed, especially when you consider that he is a negative mover for me when comparing how his current form outweighs his pure course fit. 

Instead, I will get a little more aggressive with Eric Cole and Stephan Jaeger. Both landed as top 20 profiles who resembled past winners, with Cole grading fifth for BOB percentage and Jaeger producing a return inside the top five himself when adding together distance, proximity under 100 yards, and around the green totals into one category.

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Collin Morikawa
$9,000+ - Justin Thomas/Sam Burns
$8,000+ - Wyndham Clark (very happy to also rotate Bhatia/MacIntyre/Henley/Scott into builds)
$7,000+ - Davis Thompson/Keegan Bradley
$6,000+ - Eric Cole/Stephan Jaeger

Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

***This still has time to change

$10,000+ - None
$9,000+ - Hideki Matsuyama/Viktor Hovland
$8,000+ - Corey Conners
$7,000+ - Cameron Young/Jake Knapp
$6,000+ - Matthew McCarty

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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