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Our hot streak continued last week, and we had another 2-0 outing for +2 units. We were correct in fading the Jets despite the marketing moving in their favor. The Rams got the victory and covered the spread to give us our first win. The Bengals then easily covered the 7.5-point spread against a Cleveland Browns team that appears more interested in their 2025 draft position than winning games.
There are quite a few games I’m playing this week, but I’ve narrowed things down to my two favorites for this column. We are rolling with some road chalk to keep our hot streak going. Here’s to another winning week!
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New England Patriots (+4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles is fresh off a come-from-behind victory over the Denver Broncos last Thursday night while New England played the Bills tough last Sunday but ultimately lost the game. The Chargers have only won two games against teams with a winning record (both against the Broncos), but they have been very good when facing lesser competition.
This line suggests these two teams are a little closer than their records suggest, but that isn’t the case. The Chargers rank higher than New England in total team, offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. They are simply the better team.
TARHEEB STILL @CHARGERS PICK-6.
📺: #LACvsATL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/T3CodECkpD— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024
I expect the Chargers to take care of business and score a decisive victory here as they look to secure a playoff berth.
Pick: Chargers -4 (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.10 Units to Win 1 Unit
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions
Detroit is coming off a 34-17 beatdown over the Chicago Bears while San Francisco dropped a winnable game against the Miami Dolphins. Both of these defenses have struggled lately, so this is a spot where we could see a ton of points.
There is some concern that the Lions will rest starters in preparation for next week’s showdown with the Minnesota Vikings. However, head coach Dan Campbell has said he has no such plans to do so. This is also a major revenge spot for the Lions after losing to San Francisco in last year’s NFC title game, and last week, the 49ers looked like a team that has checked out on a lost season.
I got this line when it was still -3 earlier in the week but would still play it here at 3.5. Expect Detroit to easily cover this number in preparation for a huge Week 18 game that will determine home-field advantage in the NFC.
Pick: Lions -3.5 (-102) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.02 Units to Win 1 Unit
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