Christmas Day Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Russell Wilson, George Pickens, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Joe Mixon

Happy Holiday and welcome to a new NFL experiment: Wednesday games on Christmas day! For fantasy football, these two games come at a very unusual time as they fall on championship week for most leagues. In addition, the two games feature four of the top five teams in the AFC at the moment and offer plenty of fantasy options.

While you eat, open presents, and gorge yourself on merriment and family time, here is a look at the best options for the two-game holiday slate from a fantasy football perspective.

Each week, I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis (and Wednesday, too!), focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. But with an oversized three games on this holiday Thursday, there are plenty of start/sit decisions to make.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

One day until THE day.

NFL Christmas Gameday is LIVE on @netflix tomorrow! #NFLonNetflix pic.twitter.com/G3QrLCpiKI

— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2024

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers - 1:00 PM ET

Be sure also to check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:

• George Pickens (WR. PIT) - Hamstring - Available to play
• Justin Fields (QB, PIT) - Abdomen - Questionable

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Patrick Mahomes(QB - KC)

Patrick Mahomes has definitely had his weeks where we did not need to start him in fantasy football, but he has redeemed himself in the last five games. In that span, he is the QB9 with 19.8 fantasy points per game. The Steelers have been tough on quarterbacks, but have allowed 21 total touchdowns to the position in 15 games.

Travis Kelce   (TE - KC)

Despite the lackluster results (five catches for 30 yards), Travis Kelce had some of his best usage of 2024 in Week 16. He played 90% of snaps and saw seven targets. He now has at least five receptions in seven of his last nine games and remains a must-start at the volatile tight end position, even with him not playing up to his standards this year.

Xavier Worthy(WR - KC)

Xavier Worthy is now the number one wide receiver in Kansas City and the usage proves it. Worthy has played more than 80% of snaps in three straight games and has back-to-back weeks of 11 targets. He has had some trouble getting in the end zone recently, but the Chiefs are also buffering his floor with a couple of rushing attempts per game.

Xavier Worthy with two more near-miss touchdowns in Week 16. Has had roughly 30 this season. Sheesh. pic.twitter.com/MiT287xyf9

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 23, 2024

George Pickens (WR - PIT)

George Pickens returns after three missed games for this important matchup at home. Before his absence, he had at least 13 half-PPR points in three out of four games and he still leads the team with his 90 targets which is 30 more than any other players on the Steelers.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Marquise Brown(WR - KC)

Marquise Brown saw his first action of the year and played 27% of snaps in Week 16. Even with limited playing time he had eight targets and caught five balls for 45 yards. If he even gets up to 50%-60% of snaps this week it could be a massive game for Hollywood.

Jaylen Warren(RB - PIT)

Jaylen Warren is now playing ahead of Najee Harris, and his pass-catching is making him fantasy-relevant each week. Warren played 67% of snaps last week and had 92 total targets on 17 touches.

Jaylen Warren is a violent runner. You don't see a lot of guys knock back and down Robert Spillane like this. He's the guy who put Derrick Henry flat on his back. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/fhKOYwmwix

— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) September 26, 2023

Pat Freiermuth (TE - PIT)

The Kansas City Chiefs allow the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, including the most receiving yards in the league. If you need a streamer for the position, Pat Freiermuth is a viable candidate in a week without a lot of great options.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt(RBs - KC)

I don't know how this Kansas City backfield is going to shake out on Wednesday afternoon, but what I do know is that the Chiefs run game has not been efficient since Isiah Pacheco came back from injury. Pacheco has no more than seven fantasy points since returning from his broken leg. While Kareem Hunt logged the majority of snaps in Week 16, he scored five or fewer points in Weeks 13-15

DeAndre Hopkins(WR - KC)

With Marquise Brown back in the lineup in Week 16, DeAndre Hopkins saw his snaps fall to under 50% and his targets fall to just four against Houston. Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown are both now likely to play ahead of him for the rest of the season.

Noah Gray(TE - KC)

With more wide receivers available to Patrick Mahomes, Noah Gray also saw his snaps fall below 50% and he caught his only target for 10 yards. His role as a decent flex or tight end pass-catcher may be over.

Najee Harris(RB - PIT)

Najee Harris has fallen on hard times, scoring 11 or fewer half-PPR fantasy points in six out of seven games since his bye week and now Jaylen Warren is playing more snaps. The Chiefs allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season so Harris is not a priority.

Calvin Austin III(WR - PIT)

Calvin Austin led the Steelers in targets in the games that George Pickens missed, but he had over five fantasy points in a game just twice in the first 11 weeks of the season. He is a deep-league flex at best for Week 17.

Russell Wilson (QB - PIT)

Russell Wilson has had some tremendous games since becoming the starter in Week 7, but it's the inconsistency that has me looking for other options in a championship matchup. He has scored more than 16 fantasy points just once in his last six games while he scored under 10 twice in that span.

Kirksey’s Christmas Picks

Current Spread: KC -3, O/U 43.5

Picks: KC -3, UNDER 43.5

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans - 4:30 PM ET

Be sure also to check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:

• Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) - Shoulder - Questionable (Expected to play)
• Nelson Agholor (WR, BAL) - Concussion - OUT
• Justice Hill (RB, BAL) - Concussion - OUT
• John Metchie III (WR, HOU) - Shoulder - Questionable (Expected to play)

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Lamar Jackson(QB - BAL)

You don't need to tell you that Lamar Jackson is the best fantasy quarterback on a points-per-game basis this season. His locked-in place in our lineups is only made better by the fact that Houston has allowed the most passing touchdowns from quarterbacks this season (28).

QB seasons with 120+ Passer Rating in NFL History (min. 300 att)

2004 Peyton Manning 🏆
2011 Aaron Rodgers 🏆
2020 Aaron Rodgers 🏆
2024 Lamar Jackson 👀

🏆 = Won MVP pic.twitter.com/vydV1Ohe7Y

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 24, 2024

Derrick Henry(RB - BAL)

Only Saquon Barkley is better on a points-per-game basis than Derrick Henry this season. Remember when Henry was on the Titans and would routinely run all over the Houston Texans for 150 yards and multiple scores in their matchups? That kind of line is in play on Christmas Day.

Mark Andrews(TE - BAL)

Somehow, Mark Andrews has clawed his way up to TE7 on the year in half-PPR scoring. His frequent touchdowns and now growing share of the targets have put him back among the elite where he belongs. Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor being banged up here should mean big things for Andrews.

Nico Collins(WR - HOU)

What's the limit to the number of targets Nico Collins can get in a game from C.J. Stroud? With no Tank Dell or Stefon Diggs, this could be a 15-target game like he had in Week 4. Only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase have more fantasy points per game than Collins this season.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Zay Flowers (WR - BAL)

Monitor the Zay Flowers news carefully as he is Questionable with a shoulder injury and did not practice this week. If he is a full-go, then fire him up. Flowers has 46 more targets than any other player on the Ravens and with Justice Hill gone, it could mean more passes for the wide receivers and tight ends.

C.J. Stroud  (QB - HOU)

This is not the C.J. Stroud from 2023. Since Week 10, Stroud is only the QB27 with 14.2 fantasy points per game. The matchup against the Ravens boosts his floor since they allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position this year. He is a safe start in 12- or 14-team leagues, but Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz better step up.

Joe Mixon(RB - HOU)

The Ravens have been one of the hardest teams for running backs to score on this season (just eight touchdowns allowed on the ground), but they can be beaten in the air (four touchdowns). Mixon has been in a bit of a slump lately, but he is going to get a tremendous amount of volume as the Texans try to control the clock at home.

JOE. MIXON. 🔥pic.twitter.com/92GEMzCua1

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) November 11, 2024

Dalton Schultz(TE - HOU)

Dalton Schultz has reentered the Texans' game plan over the last three games with 19 targets and more than 80% of snaps played in each of his last two. He also has two touchdowns in his last three games as Stroud has been looking his way more in the red zone.

Rashod Bateman(WR - BAL)

Rashod Bateman now has four touchdowns in his last four games, but it has only come on six total receptions. Lamar Jackson trusts him in the red zone, and he would enter borderline must-start status if Zay Flowers were to miss the game.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie (WRs - HOU)

One thing is for sure in Houston. Nico Collins, Joe Mixon, and Dalton Schultz are going to get a ton of opportunities. How C.J. Stroud distributes the rest of his throws is anyone's guess at this point. With Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out, it's impossible to know where Stroud goes, but if forced to pick one, I would go with Xavier Hutchinson.

Isaiah Likely (TE - BAL)

Isaiah Likely keeps popping up with random touchdowns seemingly every other week, but his consistency is maddening. The truth is he doesn't have more than 38 yards in six of his last seven games. He is a very risky play at tight end this week.

Kirksey’s Christmas Picks

Current Spread: BAL -5, O/U 46.5

Picks: BAL - 5, OVER 46.5

More Fantasy Football Analysis