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It was the night before the fantasy championship, and all through the house, not a manager was stirring, not even the one that sends bad trade offers. The cleats were hung by the chimney with care in hopes that Justin Jefferson and a trophy would soon be there.
Perhaps the greatest gift of all is the gift of Mike Evans. Maybe not, but I've committed myself to Mike Evans Watch. Last Sunday, Evans hauled in five passes for 69 yards pushing his season total to 818 receiving yards, and is now 182 yards shy of extending his consecutive 1000-yard receiving streak. Evans will now need to average 91 receiving yards per game over his final two contests to cement his legacy further. In Week 17, Tampa Bay hosts the Carolina Panthers; in Week 18, the New Orleans Saints come marching into Tampa.
With Tank Dell lost for the season with a torn ACL and dislocated knee, and CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, and Tee Higgins all scheduled for an MRI on Monday, receiver help may be needed more than ever before. Here are the RotoBaller Week 17 starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Week 17 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Davante Adams - WR, New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Look, Davante Adams knows how to play in the cold. After all, he spent eight years in Green Bay, many of them alongside Aaron Rodgers. I'm referring to Green Bay being cold, not the Grinch-like vibes that Rodgers gives off. Of note, Rodgers got an MRI on Monday, which is something to watch.
Since the Jets' Week 12 bye, only Ja'Marr Chase has averaged more fantasy points per game than Adams, who has averaged 26.5 fantasy points over that span. Adams' 47 targets in the last four contests are the ninth most among pass catchers. Let's look at the metrics for success: 31.3% target share, 0.30 targets per route run, 39.2% first-read target share, 0.141 first downs per route run, and six end zone targets resulting in four touchdowns, while also accounting for a team receiving market share of 41.3%. Only A.J. Brown and Puka Nacua account for a more outstanding team receiving market share than Adams.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams continue their late-season push to run it back in 2025. They’re grooving, just like Rodgers on his TD celebration after this one. pic.twitter.com/Tyku219umV
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) December 22, 2024
I don't need to understand analytics to understand that success will surely follow if I add all those opportunities together. Success has also followed receivers over the previous four weeks against the Bills. Over that period, no team has allowed more fantasy points to receivers than the 48.37 per contest the Bills have yielded.
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
Last week was a challenge, one that Terry McLaurin met head-on. In the previous contests against the Eagles, McLaurin was held to one reception for 10 yards. On Sunday, McLaurin exercised those demons to a degree, hauling in five passes for 60 yards and another touchdown reception, his 12th of the season.
Jayden Daniels DIME TO TERRY MCLAURIN.
📺: #PHIvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lpjGqVqn9f— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
McLaurin has produced 13 or more fantasy points in 12 of his previous 13 contests. Since Week 3, only Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown have averaged more than the 18 fantasy points per game that McLaurin has.
Since Week 12, McLaurin has been as good as any receiver, including Adams. McLaurin's metrics support his production as he has earned a 29.0% first-read target share and an overall target share of 21.7%, leading to a Commanders' air yard share of 37.7%. More importantly for fantasy managers, he had a receiving touchdown market share of 50% over those five weeks.
McLaurin became the first Washington receiver to have 1,000-plus receiving yards in five consecutive seasons. Only he and Justin Jefferson have strung together five successive 1000-yard seasons dating back to the 2020 season. We are still waiting to see if Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill will join them this season.
Jakobi Meyers - WR, Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Look, it's Brock Bowers or Jakobi Meyers in this Raiders passing attack. Meyers is currently averaging 9.6 targets per game and a target share of 23.8%, accounting for a team receiving market share of 28.8% since Week 12.
Since Week 8, Meyers has averaged 14.1 fantasy points per contest, and his 113 fantasy points have earned him WR23 status. That ranks him higher than the likes of London, Evans, and DeVonta Smith over that period. Before last week's 6.1 fantasy performance, Meyers had strung together four weeks of more than 10 fantasy points.
This week, expect Meyers to get back on track as he faces a Saints secondary that, before their Monday Night Football showdown with the Packers, had allowed 471 receiving yards and four touchdowns to opposing receivers over the last four weeks. That worked out to 37.93 fantasy points per game; the eighth-most. That makes a lot of sense, considering that on the season, the Saints have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers; 36.30 per game.
Players whose touchdown rates should improve starting in Week 17:
Trey McBride📈
Jakobi Meyers📈
Malik Nabers📈
Marvin Harrison Jr.📈 pic.twitter.com/ARyOF6Kfr6— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) December 23, 2024
Week 17 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Cooper Kupp - WR, Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Over the last five weeks, Cooper Kupp's fantasy production has been propped up by a couple of touchdowns. That's great; they all count for fantasy. However, Kupp has had just three 100-yard games this season and hasn't produced one of those performances since November 17.
The likelihood of that happening this week is not very high. Back on September 15, Kupp and the Rams faced the Cardinals, with Arizona limiting Kupp to four receptions and 37 receiving yards. Over the last four weeks, Arizona has been the sixth-stingiest unit versus opposing receivers, allowing 29.05 fantasy points per contest. Over that four-week window, they have allowed 43 receptions and 548 receiving yards.
Since Week 12, Kupp has accounted for just 19% of the team's market receiving share, playing the role of Robin to Nacua's Batman. Nacua has produced a 48.0% receiving yards market share, second to only A.J. Brown while leading the NFL in target share with 37.5%. This is good for the Rams but not so much for Kupp's fantasy managers.
Amari Cooper - WR, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Remember that meme with the guy poking something and asking it to do anything? That's how fantasy managers feel when it comes to Amari Cooper. His single contribution to this Bills offense was lateralling the ball back to Josh Allen.
Since the bye week, Cooper has averaged 5.4 fantasy points per game, including a 15.5-point performance in Week 15. He has accounted for 21.7 fantasy points in those four games. Meanwhile, five receivers are averaging more fantasy points per game than Cooper has produced in total over that time frame.
It doesn't get easier this week. Cooper and the Bills host a Jets team that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game, 28.92, on the season. Only the Denver Broncos have allowed fewer than the 10 receiving touchdowns that the Jets have yielded this season.
Jerry Jeudy - WR, Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
It's bad enough that last week, the quarterback pecking order was Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Bailey Zappe, and then Jameis Winston. This week, Jeudy will primarily draw the coverage of Jalen Ramsey.
Mention DTR, and you will go from the fantasy penthouse to the fantasy outhouse. We knew expectations were low, but really? Jerry Jeudy has been one of the top fantasy receivers since Week 8, immobilized by Thompson-Robinson and Browns management. We are talking about a receiver that had been averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game with 12.9 fantasy points as his lowest outing between Weeks 8-15, relegated to just two receptions on three targets for 20 yards.
Jerry Jeudy came into Week 16 as the 4th-leading receiver in the NFL. The Browns, on the other hand, had other plans.
With Deshaun Watson (and a half game of DTR):
- 3 for 25 (8 targets)
- 5 for 73 (6 targets)
- 4 for 27 (7 targets)
- 6 for 72 (9 targets)
- 1 for 16 (3 targets)… pic.twitter.com/tR6iNysyiE— The Dawgs - A Cleveland Browns Podcast (@thedawgspodcast) December 23, 2024
As long as this Browns coaching staff views Thompson-Robinson as the "best" option, Jeudy is an untouchable fantasy asset, especially against the fourth-toughest defense this season against fantasy receivers.
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