RADIO
Many fantasy managers found themselves at a positional disadvantage in their fantasy semi-final matchups if they had Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, or T.J. Hockenson in their starting lineups. I am here to ensure we avoid putting ourselves at a disadvantage, once again, when it matters the most: the Fantasy Championship.
Back in August, during our fantasy drafts, we knew what we were getting. We knew it would be a wild ride week in and week out. However, no one could have predicted that A.J. Barner, Eric Saubert, or MyCole Pruitt would have carried the same fantasy value in Week 16 as Kelce.
We can never remove 100% of the risk associated with fantasy football, but our goal is to limit it. Here are your RotoBaller starts and sits at the tight end position for Week 17.
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Week 17 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Pat Freiermuth - TE, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are the Christmas present that keeps on giving. At least when it comes to surrendering fantasy production to the tight-end position. On the season, Kansas City has allowed a league-high 1,090 receiving yards while also surrendering five touchdown receptions on 94 receptions. Adding that up, you get 15.55 fantasy points allowed per game, the third-most. Even over the previous four weeks, the Chiefs have allowed 15.10 fantasy points on 24 receptions for 302 receiving yards.
Freiermuth has been the Steelers' top option in the passing game in George Pickens' absence. Despite a down week last week against the Ravens, Freiermuth has averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game since Week 13 and established himself as the TE7 in PPR formats over that period. With the likely return of Pickens this week, things should open up underneath for Freiermuth and fantasy managers on Christmas Day.
In the Steelers' previous five contests, Freiermuth has seen 23 targets, hauling in 19 receptions, three of which resulted in touchdowns. In that five-game window, the tight end's average depth of target has been 7.3 yards while accounting for a 14.3% target share. Why does this matter for fantasy managers? Freiermuth's 11.7 fantasy points per game are on par with Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins over that period, while his 0.49 fantasy points per route run are even better than Jaylen Waddle, Jauan Jennings, or Khalil Shakir.
Mark Andrews - TE, Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Speaking of tight ends coming on as of late, Mark Andrews has finished with 10 or more fantasy points in four straight contests and eight of his last 10. In these last four weeks, Andrews has averaged 14.7 fantasy points per game, and since Week 5, his 146.1 fantasy points have been the fifth-highest among his peers.
Remember when Mark Andrews was being dropped at the beginning of the season. Now he might advance you to the next round in your fantasy 🏈 playoffs…
pic.twitter.com/Q8GUummovW— Tipp Major (@tippmajor) December 21, 2024
Let's focus on those last four contests. In those four games, Andrews has accounted for an 18.9% target, a 19.4% first-read target share, and a 19.6% air yards share. Over this period, the tight end averages 2.23 yards per route run and, more impressively, a 33.3% touchdown share scoring on all four of his end zone targets.
The matchup isn't great, but with all the recent success of Andrews, it's hard not to see a scenario in which Lamar Jackson continues to target his favorite option in the passing game. For me, one of the strongest indicators of success is first downs per route run. Andrews has averaged 0.143 first downs per route run, a number in which he trails only Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, and Drake London among pass catchers with more than 70 routes run since Week 12.
Chig Okonkwo - TE, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
With the way the tight end position has been much of the season, the better question may be, why not Chig Okonkwo? Okonkwo has produced back-to-back weeks with more than 13 fantasy points after putting up 13.9 against the Bengals in Week 15 and 17.1 fantasy points last week against the Colts.
In that game against the Colts, Okonkwo took advantage of a great matchup, hauling in nine of his 11 targets for 81 yards. That's now 21 targets in the last two games. Since Week 12, Okonkwo has seen 30 targets, the same number as Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, and D.K. Metcalf. Okonkwo has averaged six targets per game, an 18.1% target share, and a 21.3% first-read target share. With that kind of volume, it's no wonder he has averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game and 0.47 fantasy points per route run.
Chig Okonkwo:
Week 15: Set career-highs in targets (10) and receptions (8)
Week 16: Sets career-highs in targets (11), receptions (9), receiving yards (81) and fantasy points (19.1)
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 22, 2024
While Okonkwo didn't succeed much in an earlier matchup against the Jaguars, Jacksonville has still been guilty of allowing 13.77 fantasy points per game this season to the position.
Week 17 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Zach Ertz - TE, Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
Zach Ertz has been held to fewer than five fantasy points in back-to-back contests after averaging 15.7 fantasy points over the previous three. It's hard to trust a player coming off a revenge game in which his team scored 36 points yet he had only two targets, catching one for 12 yards. It's harder trusting a player who has seemingly slid in behind Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, and even Jamison Crowder when it comes to targets. You can do very little when you average just two targets per game.
Yes, the matchup was difficult, as the Eagles have allowed just 9.8 fantasy points per game this season to the position. This week's opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, has been nearly as difficult. Through 15 contests, Atlanta has allowed 10.95 fantasy points per game and limited opposing tight ends to 665 receiving yards and three touchdowns, which rank in the top 10 for tight end futility.
A win's a win, I get it; it's always great to beat your former team. But did Crowder need a pair of touchdowns? I mean, come on, man.
Sam LaPorta - TE, Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
One tight end that has fallen short this season of expectation has been Sam LaPorta. Since Week 6, he has been better, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game. He is coming off a 2023 season where he finished as the overall TE1 in fantasy as a rookie, averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game. He can't even claim to have the most outstanding rookie tight end season anymore, seeing as Brock Bowers has generated 212.7 fantasy points this season, averaging 15.5 per contest.
They say set the bar low so that people will praise you for your production. Set it too high, and you may fail to achieve the standard you once set. LaPorta has played well recently, earning a 17.3% target share and 35 targets since Week 12. That has made fantasy managers happy while making them hesitant to put them into their lineups.
When you thought it was safe, the San Francisco 49ers come along. They are a team that has stifled slot receivers and tight ends alike this season. This season, the 9.13 fantasy points that the 49ers have allowed is the third-fewest, as is the 559 receiving yards or 37.3 receiving yards per game that tight ends have produced against this defense.
The only TEs in @Lions history with multiple seasons of 500+ receiving yards and 5+ TDs:
- @Samlaporta (2024, 2023)
- Charlie Sanders (1976, 1971, 1970)#ProBowlVote #OnePride pic.twitter.com/q63MwXZ8tt— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) December 23, 2024
Dalton Schultz - TE, Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Here's another tight end who came through last week for fantasy managers that I simply cannot trust this week. It's easy to get carried away in the now. Last week, Schultz finished with 15.5 fantasy points, his second-highest total of the season behind Week 13's 17.1 fantasy performance. Those were the only two occasions in which Schultz had finished a game with more than 9.7 fantasy points.
The Ravens again give the mirage that this is a great matchup for fantasy. On the season, they have allowed 83 receptions for 880 receiving yards and four touchdowns to the position. Here's the thing: we must dig deeper and look at the recent trends. Over the last four weeks, only the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints have allowed fewer than the 124 receiving yards that the Ravens have conceded to the tight end position. The 9.8 fantasy points per game against only six teams over this period have been more frugal.
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