RADIO
Ezequiel Tovar 2025 Outlook: Shiny Surface Stats Obscure Troubling Peripheral
11 mins agoEzequiel Tovar exploded on the fantasy scene in 2024, hitting .269/.295/.469 with 26 HR and six steals over 695 PAs. Sadly, nothing in his profile suggests a repeat. Tovar's plate discipline was atrocious, producing a 28.8% K% and 3.3% BB% backed by a 19.2% SwStr% and 44.8% chase rate. Tovar's 45.9% FB% helped his HR total, but his 10.4% IFFB% was nearly as high as his 12.3% HR/FB. He won't repeat his .344 BABIP with so many fly balls. Tovar's 93.1 mph average airborne exit velocity and 9% rate of Brls/BBE are more good than great, so power regression should be expected too. Tovar's .233 xBA and .401 xSLG don't suggest much fantasy value, and his production was virtually the same at Coors (.277/.305/.468 in 346 PAs) as on the road (.261/.284/.470 in 349 PAs). His steals were a mirage too with a success rate of just 55%. Tovar projects as Colorado's leadoff man, but his profile is the opposite of what you want at the top of the order. You can do better at an ADP of 119.85.
