RADIO
The Dallas Cowboys had rebuilt serious playoff hopes going into Week 14 but dropped a heartbreaker to Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. Still, a statement win in Week 15 over the Panthers provides a glimmer of hope over the final few weeks. Was it enough to keep the postseason window open?
The answer to whether the Cowboys can still make the playoffs is yes, albeit on a very thin tightrope! A clear starting point is that the Cowboys need to win out, but the specific implications of each victory won’t be obvious. Many know they are chasing Washington within the division for the final Wild Card spot, but there’s more to it than that.
In this article, we'll consider the league schedule and how other playoff races are shaping up to create the necessary script for Dallas to survive the cut. We know some want Dallas to lose out for a better draft pick, but that's for another column! Let's examine a viable path to the playoffs already.
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Basic Needs That Dallas Must Meet To Reach The Postseason
First, let’s lay out a baseline assumption that Mike McCarthy coaches well enough while his stars, such as CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons, continue to elevate the team’s play. One has to squint quite hard to envision a victory over Philadelphia in Week 17 but assume the best for this exercise. This is the energy needed for players and fans alike!
Micah Parsons on wishing the Cowboys were having more success this season: "I want something greater. I want a Super Bowl. I'm in my prime. I feel like I'm untouchable right now. (Team success) brings everything else. I said I want an unofficial no one ever to wear No. 11…
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) December 15, 2024
Week 16’s home date is against the Buccaneers, who lead the Atlanta Falcons by a game in the NFC South but don’t own the tiebreaker against them. The Falcons have a home game against the struggling Giants, so it’s almost certain that a Dallas win will be paired with an Atlanta victory, putting Tampa back into the Wild Card race. Atlanta travels to Washington for a game against the Commanders in Week 18.
What Dallas Needs From The Rest Of The League
Of course, Dallas needs Washington to lose out but can’t have both Atlanta and Tampa Bay winning so much that the NFC South runner-up claims the final Wild Card spot.
Also, Dallas lost to Atlanta back in Week 9 but if they beat Tampa, then they own the head-to-head tiebreaker there but not against ATL. Seattle could also finish at 9-8 but Dallas should own the tiebreaker thanks to conference records.
Both teams currently own a 4-5 NFC record, but remember we’re assuming Dallas wins out and Seattle is facing a likely loss to Minnesota this week. We are looking at an eventual 7-5 NFC record for the Cowboys while Seattle would end at 6-6 in this script.
The Seahawks can then win in Week 17 against Chicago before needing to lose in Week 18 against the Rams. A problem may arise with the Rams resting starters if they beat the Jets in Week 16 and the Cardinals in Week 17 before then. However, if Arizona can beat them again (they won 41-10 back in September) then the Rams must beat Seattle in Week 18 to clinch the division and a playoff berth.
How Dallas Makes The Playoffs, Week-by-Week:
Week 16: Dallas defeats Tampa Bay
AND...
-Philadelphia beats Washington
-Minnesota over Seattle
-Arizona defeats Carolina
-LA Rams over the NY Jets
Week 17: Dallas drops Philadelphia
AND...
-Atlanta defeats Washington
-Seattle beats Chicago
-Arizona over the Rams
-Carolina defeats Tampa Bay
Week 18: Dallas beats Washington
AND...
-San Francisco beats Arizona (This would render the SEA v. LAR game meaningless for DAL. A Seahawks win would notch them into the division while the Rams would have a lowly 5-7 conference record.)
And that should do it! Yes, such a simple path, right? Let's sit back and see if Dallas can find their way down this path of destiny that would have Jerry Jones and company smiling from ear to ear.
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