RADIO
Key Takeaways
- Survivor Pool Basics: NFL Survivor Pools are elimination contests where participants pick one team to win each week, but can’t reuse teams throughout the season. A single loss eliminates your entry.
- Winning Strategies: Success in Survivor Leagues requires strategic planning, like mapping out picks weeks in advance, avoiding popular or "chalk" selections to survive especially in large pools.
- Key Selection Tactics: Picking teams with strong offenses against weak opponents, analyzing point spreads, and targeting home teams are just a few basic ways to improve your odds of surviving.
- Common Pitfalls: Avoid new quarterbacks, banged up injured teams, road teams on short weeks, and divisional rivalries, which often lead to unpredictable outcomes and more losses.
- Advanced Tools: Survivor Pool grids and sharp detailed analysis can help identify quality matchups, ensuring picks are optimized across the season.
Index
- What Are NFL Survivor Pools: A Guide for How to Play
- How to Win a Survivor Pool
- How to Make Your NFL Survivor Picks Each Week
- Survivor Pool Strategies
- RotoBaller's Survivor Picks for 2024
- Survivor Pool Picks Team Analysis - Buffalo Bills
- Utilizing Survivor Pool Grids To Find Future Value
- RotoBaller's Survivor Picks for 2023
What Are NFL Survivor Pools: A Guide for How to Play
NFL Survivor Pools, also known as a knockout pool, are elimination-style sports betting contests where participants are required to select one NFL team to win each week. The aim is to be the last one standing.
The catch? You can only use each NFL team once throughout the season. If your chosen team wins, you advance to the next week. If they lose, you’re eliminated from the pool. In some leagues, if a team ties, you're also eliminated. For instance, if a participant picked the New Orleans Saints to beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 1 on Sunday, the Saints would not be usable for the remaining 17 weeks of the year.
If the team you select loses, you are eliminated from the Survivor Pool contest. In Week 1 of the 2024 season, the Cincinnati Bengals were one of the most popular picks as a heavy favorite playing at home. After a massive upset loss to the New England Patriots, everyone who selected the Bengals was immediately eliminated from the season-long contest.
There are some exceptions where leagues offer rebuys, which would allow you to rejoin the league after a loss. That highlights the need to always know your league's specific rules before joining and making your picks.
How to Win a Survivor Pool
If you're interested in our survivor picks for the upcoming week of the NFL season, click here.
The way to win an NFL survivor pool is to survive each week until there are no other entrants left standing.
Small survivor pools (under or close to 100 entrants) typically end well before Week 18 of the NFL Season. However, large survivor pools (over 500 entrants) will frequently last through the final week of the NFL season. Some survivor pools can even run through the playoffs, but this is not typical.
If multiple teams all survive until the final week of the pool, then the prize pool may be split amongst the surviving teams. Or the prize pool may be partially split, while the remaining teams continue to battle in the final week for the rest of the prize.
How to Make Your NFL Survivor Picks Each Week
Making informed NFL survivor picks requires a combination of research, analysis, and strategy. Here are some key considerations to keep in mind:
The first step to choosing your NFL survivor pick for the week is to navigate the point spreads and see which teams are at least a touchdown favorite. If a team is favored by over a touchdown, their win probability will usually be around 65%, which are great odds that your pick will win their game that week.
The second step is to look for a team with a good offense. Even with a high win probability and a good offense though, the 2024 season has proven that no favorite is safe. Early in the 2024 season we saw several of the biggest favorites upset early in the year. Generally teams with good offenses and high win probabilities will be the “safest" picks.
Another obvious and strong tactic for picking your team each week is to pick on bad teams. In 2024, most survivor picks have come against bad teams like the Panthers, Raiders, Browns, Bears, and Giants. You can easily see which teams are bad NFL teams by looking at their point differentials, and if you want to be more granular, looking at their defensive ranks vs passing and running. It should go without saying that teams who give up a lot more points than they’ve scored are ripe for picking against.
If you can find the sweet spot of picking good offenses vs bad teams, then the matchup will frequently be heavily favored by at least a touchdown, and you'll have a high probability to win your week.
Survivor Pool Strategies
Consider the Weeks Ahead: Map out your potential picks for at least the next four to five weeks. If the biggest favorite for a given week of the season is playing more teams with weak records in the weeks ahead, it’s ok to wait on choosing that team. They provide solid expected future value, especially if several of their remaining home games come against subpar franchises. Saving teams favored in most of their matchups can save you from having too many close calls in future weeks.
Don’t Simply Choose The Best Matchup Each Week - Avoid using the best pick every week in the first half of the season or you will struggle to survive week-by-week down the stretch.
18 Weeks and 32 Teams - Some weeks you will want to use mediocre teams with great matchups, but don’t go overboard. There are only 18 weeks of the season compared to 32 teams, so you will only pick just over half of the league if you make it to the end. The exception to this is a survivor pool that goes through the playoffs. In those leagues, it's possible you could use up to 22 teams if you make it until the end, which means you'll be using many mediocre teams throughout the season.
Avoid the Chalk - By avoiding the most popular picks each week, you can differentiate your selections and save top teams for later in the year. Additionally, when big upsets occasionally happen against the heavily favored teams, if you’ve avoided picking the chalk, you will survive when a large percentage of the pool is knocked out.
Wait on Good Teams - Mining for mid-level value picks in the early weeks while saving some of the league’s best teams for later in the year can save you from late-season elimination. This is doubly true for leagues that allow rebuys where you can take greater risks.
Beware of Injuries - Stay informed with RotoBaller's NFL Injury Report and RotoBaller’s NFL News on which key players could be out of action for each week’s games. A team not at full strength is obviously much more likely to suffer an upset.
Watch Team Trends - If a team starts slowly but finds new life following a bye, that’s a potential green flag for future value.
Target Home Teams - While matchups matter more than anything, picking the home team can be utilized as a tie-breaking rule for weekly picks. The Seattle Seahawks haven’t been a great team in a few years, but its home-field advantage is well known and worth noting in survivor contests.
Avoid Away Divisional Matchups In Particular - Divisional matchups often bring the biggest upsets, as team familiarity becomes a factor. These matchups are higher-energy than usual, and the results are more volatile and less predictable.
Avoid New Quarterbacks - While Rookie quarterbacks are attractive to pick against, these matchups can be a dice roll since opposing defenses and coaches are less familiar with the quarterback, who may have a surprise performance in any given week. Just look at Jayden Daniels in 2024, or even Caleb Williams in his few hot weeks in 2024. Established backups coming in to relive a poorly performing quarterback is also a spot to avoid, as it gives the team a boost and a new look which the defense won't be as prepared for.
Avoid Road Teams On A Short Week - After a hard-fought Sunday game, traveling for a Thursday Night Football contest is far from ideal. A road trip on a short week can cause even the NFL’s best teams to fall.
Know Your League Rules - Last but definitely not least, make sure you know all of your league's rules prior to the survivor league starting. If you aren't 100% sure that the league doesn't run through the playoffs, ask! If you aren't sure if there are rebuys (or multiple rebuys!), ask. If you aren't sure if you have to start picking two teams at a certain point, ask!
RotoBaller's Survivor Pool Picks for 2024
- Week 1 Targets (Bengals, Saints) And Avoids (Bills, Chargers)
- Week 2 Targets (Chargers, Ravens) and Avoids (Seahawks, Commanders)
- Week 3 Targets (Browns, Raiders) and Avoids (Jets, Saints)
- Week 4 Targets (Jets, 49ers) and Avoids (Ravens, Cardinals)
- Week 5 Targets (Seahawks, Packers) and Avoids (Vikings, Broncos)
- Week 6 Targets (Eagles, Texans) and Avoids (Bills, Bengals)
- Week 7 Targets (Bills, Rams) and Avoids (Jaguars, Colts)
- Week 8 Targets (Broncos, Lions) and Avoids (Packers, Bengals)
- Week 9 Targets (Eagles, Bengals) and Avoids (Falcons, Bills)
- Week 10 Targets (Chiefs, Chargers) and Avoids (Jets, Falcons)
- Week 11 Targets (Lions, Dolphins) and Avoids (Ravens, Jets)
- Week 12 Targets (Commanders, Texans) and Avoids (Buccaneers, Packers)
- Week 13 Targets (Chiefs, Buccaneers) and Avoids (Texans, Commanders)
- Week 14 Targets (Eagles, Buccaneers) and Avoids (Titans, Dolphins)
- Week 15 Targets (Ravens, Commanders) and Avoids (Jets, Cardinals)
Survivor Pool Team Analysis - Buffalo Bills
Let's take a moment to dig into the Buffalo Bills 2024 season. The Bills were projected to win 10.5 games at the start of the 2024 season. It's clear they're a much better team than that. The Buffalo offense and defense saw a ton of change in the offseason, but quarterback Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott remained in place and they are thriving together with a cast of under-appreciated receivers. Survivor Pool participants should've been confident that they would use Buffalo at some point in the 2024 season, but finding which week to use them is the challenge.
Buffalo began the year with matchups against the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins. In the preseason, those were considered to be solid teams, so avoiding the Bills in those spots made sense.
However, if you examined their matchups against the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars from weeks three to eight, you could see the Bills as a strong play in those weeks. Two matchups with the New England Patriots and one game against the New York Jets over the final three weeks of the year were also promising spots for the Bills.
It's easy to avoid spots like the the defending Super Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, despite the Bills pulling out a win there. The Bills' Week 13, Week 14, and Week 15 matchups against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Detroit Lions following their bye were also unfavorable spots.
It's obvious that picking the Bills in one of those early matchups, or looking at the final three weeks, would be the best approach. Deciding which matchup to pick likely comes down to how many other good matchups there are that week. The more good matchups that are available in a given week, the easier it is to pick the Bills that week.
Utilizing Survivor Pool Grids To Find Future Value
Survivor Pool grids provide a color-coded overview of each team's full schedule with future Vegas odds and game lines. These grids can be sorted to quickly show contestants who the biggest favorites are in any week. Favorites are also usually highlighted to indicate they are the best picks. The grids also allow you to remove already-picked teams, and select teams for future weeks to plan out your survivor picks. You can save multiple variations of a grid, and use a different grid for each survivor pool you're in. Stay tuned for 2025 as RotoBaller is building the industry's best Survivor Grid which will be live in August.
RotoBaller's Survivor Picks for 2023
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 1) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 2) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 3) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 4) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 5) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 6) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 7) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 8) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 10) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 13) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 15) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 17) - Targets and Avoids
- NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 18) - Targets and Avoids
