Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 16 - Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Conner

Week 16 of the NFL season brings us some incredibly tasty matchups for some of the most reliable running backs in the league.

While there are at least a dozen good backs in play on this Sunday's main slate, there are several who stand out to me as far as their matchup and opportunity. And don't worry - we have some options at multiple price tiers, too!

Now, let's take a closer look at some of our favorite running back matchups for Week 16.

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Bijan Robinson ($8,100 DK, $8,900 FD)

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants

The Falcons' sophomore standout is shouldering more of the load for this offense lately. Robinson has averaged 26.6 touches over the last three weeks, eclipsing the 100-yard mark on the ground in two of those games and finishing with 92 yards in the other.

Those results all came against better defenses than he will see this week as the Falcons host the lowly New York Giants, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Pro Football Focus has the offensive line vs. defensive line matchup for Atlanta ranked as the third-best in the league this week, and I would expect Atlanta to pound the rock with their best player in this game, especially with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start.

The Falcons are substantial home favorites, and this game script sets up nicely for Robinson to get a ton of volume. He's pricey, but that should hold his rostership in check a bit, especially with both of these next two backs being in smash spots as well.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500 DK, $8,300 FD)

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

I circled this matchup for Gibbs the day we learned that Montgomery's injury was serious enough to put him out for the remainder of the season. Nothing that has transpired this week makes me think that there's no reason NOT to play Gibbs in just about every lineup this week. Check out these stats...

Some Jahmyr Gibbs stats...

2023 - when David Montgomery missed games
20 touches / 126 yards / 1 TD / RB3
31 touches / 189 yards / 1 TD / RB1

2024 - DMont hurt mid game
17 touches / 160 yards / 2 TDs / RB1
22 touches / 99 yards / 2 TDs / RB4
13 touches / 114 yards / 2 TDs / RB3 pic.twitter.com/hIgqJh9CBF

— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) December 18, 2024

Fantasy football players everywhere have wanted to see what Gibbs is capable of doing with a full complement of touches, and they just might get their wish here for the final few weeks of the season, as Detroit still needs to win these games to fend off the Vikings for the division title.

Gibbs is facing the 31st-ranked rush defense (DVOA) in Chicago this week, and Detroit has the top advantage up front, according to PFF. While Gibbs had only a modest fantasy output against the Bears on Thanksgiving Day, it was largely because he had only touched the football 11 times in that game. Yet he still amassed over 100 yards from scrimmage!

Gibbs is a fantastic runner with superb vision and a talented pass catcher who is dangerous in space. If we project him for 20+ touches this week, he could break this slate wide open. And he should be game-script proof as well, being utilized heavily as a runner if the Lions happen to race out to a big lead or racking up receiving yards as he did last week when the Lions trailed Buffalo.

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James Conner ($7,100 DK, $8,400 FD)

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

If you've been rostering James Conner the last two weeks, you've likely been winning money. The former Pitt standout rolled up 20 FD points against the Seahawks in Week 14 and then went off for 31 FD points last week against the Patriots.

Conner is rolling right now with 200 yards rushing over his last two games and another 60 yards receiving on nine catches.

I’ve loved James Conner all year - there’s no way I’m stopping now! A league winner is blossoming before our eyes pic.twitter.com/lkdAJ5rywS

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 19, 2024

The Cardinals need a win on the road this week in Carolina, and there's no reason they shouldn't feed their top back against the worst-ranked run defense in the NFL. The Panthers rank last against the run and have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They've also bled touchdowns to backs this season with 17 scores allowed.

Conner is set up for another big day, and like Gibbs, he's a near must-play in cash formats. Fire him up with confidence!

Jerome Ford ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD)

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

We need a value play to round things out, right? The Browns are probably not going to be a popular offense to target this week, mainly because they made the move to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback and benched Jameis Winston. DTR has been objectively bad in his career in a handful of starts, and thus, the Browns' pass-catchers all get downgraded quite a bit as a result.

But what about the running game, then? Wouldn't it make sense for Cleveland to try to establish the run against the Bengals with a young quarterback under center who has not been an effective passer? Cincy ranks just 27th against the run, and Ford should inherit most of the running back touches as his fellow backfield mate Nick Chubb is now done for the year.

Ford was one of the few bright spots for the Cleveland offense last week, rushing for 84 yards and a score on just seven carries.

He has plenty of experience as a pass-catcher, too, and I would expect Browns' coach Kevin Stefanski to scheme him the ball on some screens and easy throws for his young QB. There are always those check-downs, too, as DTR may be more inclined to dump it off to his back than force the ball down the field.

Ford is not projected to carry much rostership, so I love him as a contrarian play for tournaments.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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