High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 16 Lineups Including Christian Watson, Marvin Harrison Jr., T.J. Hockenson, Jared Goff, More

December 19, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 16 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each, including Christian Watson, Marvin Harrison Jr., T.J. Hockenson, Jared Goff, and more.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 16 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 16.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. It's Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs with no byes once again.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, Pro Football Focus, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 15 started with a rainy disappointment. The 49ers and Rams combined for 18 points in the first contest of the year with no touchdowns. It was a worst-case scenario to kick off the fantasy playoffs.

Fortunately, there were some extremely entertaining matchups on Sunday. The Bills were one-half of the highest-scoring outing for the second straight week. They beat the Lions 48-42 to combine for 90 points.

Aside from the two signal-callers involved in that shootout, no one else threw for 300 yards. However, seven of them tossed at least three touchdowns, including five from Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. Plus, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts added to their total with their legs. As for rushing, seven tailbacks ran for 100 yards and two rushed for multiple scores. Eleven teams scored 30 points, including three over 40, and eleven were under 16. It was more feast or famine this week.

• Buffalo Bills - 48 points scored (1st)
• Baltimore Ravens - 35 points scored (5th)
• Washington Commanders - 20 points scored (tied for 16th)
• Los Angeles Rams - 12 points scored (tied for 26th)
• San Francisco 49ers - 6 points scored (32nd)

Feast or famine is an accurate description of our selections for Week 15. We crushed it with the Bills, who finished No. 1. The Ravens were also a top five selection. Unfortunately, it went downhill after those two, especially for the Rams and 49ers who dealt with a rainy mess. The Commanders were in the middle of the pack but still disappointing.

The Bengals and Broncos each scored a special teams or defensive touchdown, neither of which we chose. We'll look to keep the high-end outcomes and pair those with some more consistency from our remaining selections. We've got five more for you this week.

Week 16 Offenses to Target

• • Detroit Lions
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Arizona Cardinals

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

The road teams gained ground in Week 15. They were led by the Bengals, Ravens, Jets, Cowboys, Bills, and Packers, who scored 30 or more points. Conversely, only the Lions, Vikings, and Broncos reached that mark at home. Injuries are starting to impact offensive output, especially with multiple signal-callers sidelined. For the moment, the host squads look like the better bet for Week 16.

It was another week of the elite offenses boosting their season average. All three "above average" categories in the offensive touchdowns, offensive yards, and offensive plays metrics increased after last week. Meanwhile, of the six remaining categories, five stayed the same or dropped. The gap between the great offenses and the bad ones is getting wider.

Running more plays continues to correlate with the highest points scored, but not by a significant margin. Nevertheless, it bodes well for fantasy football.

Week 16 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Detroit Lions

It was a brutal week for Detroit. Losing handily to the Bills is one thing, but suffering more injuries to their defense and losing David Montgomery is devastating. It forces you to question whether they can do enough defensively to slow down their opponents moving forward. Fortunately, their offense, even without Montgomery, will remain elite.

They rank first in points per game with 32.79, first in offensive touchdowns with 3.93, second in offensive yards with 403.86, and third in plays per week with 65.57.

They'll need some reinforcements to make a deep playoff run and likely to close out the season with a win over Minnesota, but this week, they'll be just fine against Chicago. Traveling to Solider Field is a familiar spot. Weather is the only thing that could impact this one, but Detroit's offense should be part of your lineup in the semi-finals of the fantasy playoffs.

The obvious: We've seen Jahmyr Gibbs without Montgomery for short stretches and the results are amazing. He's on the shortlist to finish as the overall RB1 this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown is benefitting from these back-and-forth high-scoring contests. After a slow start to the year, Sam LaPorta has been reliable. He's been great in four of his past five outings.

Some Jahmyr Gibbs stats...

2023 - when David Montgomery missed games
20 touches / 126 yards / 1 TD / RB3
31 touches / 189 yards / 1 TD / RB1

2024 - DMont hurt mid game
17 touches / 160 yards / 2 TDs / RB1
22 touches / 99 yards / 2 TDs / RB4
13 touches / 114 yards / 2 TDs / RB3 pic.twitter.com/hIgqJh9CBF

— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) December 18, 2024

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Jameson Williams didn't hit his signature home-run play, but he found the end zone and remains an upside wideout.

Player No. 2 - Jared Goff is known for being boom-bust because he's a pocket passer on a team with an elite rushing attack. However, the injuries to their defense have forced them to air it out more. As a result, he's thrown for 240 yards and multiple touchdowns in five of his past six games, including five against the Bills. Outdoors against the Bears would historically be a spot to avoid, but he's in the top 12.

Player No. 3 - When Montgomery misses time, they tend to incorporate another back. The next man up is Craig Reynolds, who slots in as a potential flex option given the matchup, the offense, and his familiarity with the role.

Offense No. 2 - Green Bay Packers

The Packers entered Week 15 with a narrative surrounding them that they can't beat good teams. While Seattle is not a Super Bowl contender, traveling to Lumen Field to face the twelfth man in primetime is a tough spot. Green Bay made sure to silence the critics with a dominant first half, leading 20-3 at the break. They thumped the Seahawks cementing themselves as a threat.

After their impressive victory, they're averaging 27.07 points per game (7th), 3.0 offensive touchdowns (tied for 8th), and 375.79 offensive yards (4th).

Not only do they get to return to Lambeau in Week 16, but they host the banged-up Saints, who are rotating backup signal-callers. It will be a lopsided matchup with plenty of scoring opportunities for the Packers.

The obvious: Josh Jacobs has been a top 10 back in six of his past seven games. He also has 11 touchdowns during that stretch. While the weekly rotation of receivers persists, Tucker Kraft has emerged as the No. 2 option on most weeks. There's some risk of a run-heavy approach, but he's among the top 12.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Christian Watson is an ideal fit in this offense because he doesn't need a lot of volume to produce. He can hit a long play and help you win your week. He's a great flex option.

Christian Watson has been building momentum and Coach Matt LaFleur has been impressed. 👏 #LockedOnPackers#Packers #GreenBay #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/OCg44b3IHY

— Locked on Packers (@lockedonpackers) December 18, 2024

Player No. 2 - In his first game back, Romeo Doubs found the end zone twice. It's been his superpower for most of his career. He's similar to Watson, except instead of a huge play you're hoping for a touchdown.

Offense No. 3 - Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota beat up their NFC North rival on Monday. They knocked off the Bears 30-12 to move into a three-way tie with the Lions and Eagles. They'll play the Lions to end the year, but they need to win their next two to ensure they control their destiny.

The defense did its part, but the offense ranks eighth in points per game with 26.37, ninth in offensive touchdowns with 2.71, 11th in offensive yards with 349.79, and 20th in plays per week with 61.43.

They're one to target, especially against Seattle, who got pounded by Green Bay last week. A road matchup could create a closer contest, particularly if Geno Smith is active, but that's a positive for the offense because they'll need to stay aggressive.

The obvious: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Addison form a formidable trifecta. After a season of volatility, Addison has secured his role as the No. 2 target as part of a fabulous duo with Jefferson.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - It wasn't a spectacular outing for Sam Darnold, but the Bears have a better passing defense than the Seahawks. Plus, there was no need to air it out. In a closer matchup, he's got a shot to hit his ceiling, earning him a spot in the top 12.

Player No. 2 - T.J. Hockenson had another solid performance that could've been even better if not for a few missed opportunities. He's played 60% of the snaps in his last four games as he ramps up his usage. He's still not a full-time player, but on a quality offense, he's worth considering as a high-end streamer.

Offense No. 4 - Cincinnati Bengals

Finally, Cincinnati's defense decided to show up. They caused issues for Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, forcing six turnovers, including a pick-six. The offense scored 30 points as usual, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive and ensuring there's something on the line this week.

They're averaging 28.5 points per game (5th), 3.28 offensive touchdowns (tied for 4th), and 362.5 offensive yards (8th). They're a fantastic offense that's fun to watch.

With Cleveland pulling the plug on the Jameis Winston experiment and moving to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, it should be another smooth victory for the Bengals. They'll host the Browns, who seem out of answers for this year.

The obvious: This offense is as simple as they come. You start Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, and Tee Higgins and move on. The ancillary pieces are too unreliable to trust in your fantasy playoffs.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - None.

Offense No. 5 - Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is a difficult team to assess. Some weeks they look like a playoff-caliber team defeating squads such as the Rams, Chargers, 49ers, and Dolphins. In other weeks, they seem to shoot themselves in the foot, including six occasions where they were held under 20 points. Despite their inconsistency, they've usually handled the bad teams. Last week was a good example with a 30-17 victory over New England.

Fresh off their win, they sit 15th in points per game with 22.43, 19th in offensive touchdowns with 2.07, and 11th in offensive yards with 351.36.

Next up for them is a trip to Charlotte to face the Panthers. Carolina, led by Bryce Young, who was showing improvement. However, they had a major setback against Dallas last week turning the ball over four times. It's another chance for the Cardinals to flex their muscles and remain in the race for the NFC West division crown.

The obvious: James Conner has been awesome this year, but he's reaching new levels with his running mates dropping like flies. Emari Demercado was placed on the Injured Reserve list before their Week 15 contest, and then Trey Benson exited with an injury. It's coming together at the right time for him. The receiving touchdown drought carries on for Trey McBride, who seems cursed. They specifically designed a flip pass for him at the goal line and it still didn't work. Regardless, he's locked in.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Kyler Murray embodies the unpredictability of the Cardinals. He's been tough to rely on because you never know when his spike weeks are coming and there's been fewer of them than anticipated, but it's a dream matchup, so he's in the top 12.

Player No. 2 - Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the 2024 campaign with unrealistic expectations, but he's had a productive rookie season. The trend of uncertainty continues here, but he's capable of a boom performance and the matchup is superb.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 16. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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