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Hello, RotoBallers! The NHL season is in full swing, and we have another action-packed Saturday slate.
In this piece, I will discuss my favorite forward lines to target, defensemen, and goalies in tonight's action. Be sure to keep updated with any injury notes on our newsfeed before setting your lineup.
If you have any questions about further strategy and managing the slate, feel free to chat with me on X @A_Smith_FS. All player salaries will be listed as ($DK/FD).
Forward Lines To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Washington Capitals L2 - Connor McMichael ($6.1K/$7K) - Pierre-Luc Dubois ($3.6K/$5.3K) - Taylor Raddish ($2.6K/$4K)
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
The Washington Capitals have one of the best matchups on the slate: they face the Montreal Canadiens, who, according to MoneyPuck, have allowed the second-highest 2.85 Expected Goals Against Per 60 in 5-on-5 this season.
While the Capitals have often shuffled their lines with Alex Ovechkin (leg) injured, this second line has performed very well in their limited time together.
Through 19 minutes of play, this line has generated an impressive 69.6% xGoals with 5.02 xGoals Per 60 Minutes.
14 goals on the year for Connor McMichael!#ALLCAPS pic.twitter.com/Y21i5xvH6X
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) December 1, 2024
Over his past three games, Connor McMichael has tallied four points and registered at least three shots on goal in two of those contests, while Pierre-Luc Dubois and Taylor Raddish each have two points in their past two games. Given their matchup, they should be in store for a productive evening.
Toronto Maple Leafs L1 - Matthew Knies ($4.7K/$6K) - Auston Matthews ($9.5K/$8.9K) - William Nylander ($8.3K/$7.9K)
Opponent- Pittsburgh Penguins
Another team with a great matchup is the Toronto Maple Leafs. They will face the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are in the second half of a back-to-back. While they have been playing better as of late, the Penguins still hold the fourth-highest Expected Goals Against Per 60 this season in 5-on-5, according to MoneyPuck.
Since returning to action on November 30, Auston Matthews has scored three goals with two assists across three games, logged at least one block per game, and had 12 total shots on goal.
Matthew Knies also returned from an injury on November 30 and has been very productive over his previous three games, scoring four points (two goals and two assists). William Nylander has continued his offensive dominance, scoring six goals in his previous ten contests and recording 41 shots in this sample.
Facing a weak Pittsburgh defense, this top unit should have ample scoring opportunities all evening.
Edmonton Oilers L2 - Connor Brown ($2.5K/$4.3K) - Leon Draisaitl ($8K/$8.3K) - Vasily Podkolzin ($2.6K/$3.6K)
Opponent - St. Louis Blues
Boasting an impressive 66.7% xGoals, this line should be in a great position to succeed against a St. Louis Blues team that has allowed the 12th-highest Expected Goals Against Per 60 this season.
Superstar Leon Draisaitl leads this unit and has only been held off the scoresheet twice over his previous seven contests. During this span, he has tallied ten points.
Leon Draisaitl finishes off Connor McDavid's beautiful setup, giving Edmonton the lead!#LetsGoOilers pic.twitter.com/vHYfzyDAGc
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) December 6, 2024
In addition, Vasily Podkolzin held a three-game goal streak through last week and has tallied five points overall in his previous six contests.
While both Podkolzin and Connor Brown do come with some inherent risk, given their inconsistencies, Draisaitl is a safe lineup anchor that could produce elite scoring opportunities for his wingers, especially in a positive matchup.
Colorado Avalanche L1 - Artturi Lehkonen ($5.1K/$6.1K) - Nathan MacKinnon ($9.3K/$8.8K) - Mikko Rantanen ($8K/$8K)
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
My final top offensive line to target is in Colorado. The Avalanche will face the Detroit Red Wings, who, according to MoneyPuck, currently hold the 14th-highest Expected Goals Against Per 60 in 5-on-5 play.
While this is still a solid matchup at even strength, it is even better when looking at special teams. The Red Wings boast the highest Expected Goals Against Per 60 while shorthanded this season, while the Avalanche hold the sixth-highest Expected Goals For when on the power play.
This line has continued to generate elite scoring opportunities all season. Over their past four games, each has tallied at least three points, with MacKinnon leading the way with five.
With all three forwards seeing top minutes in both even strength and on the power play, it is worth paying up on the high salary cost this evening.
Other Top Lines To Target (Cash/GPP):
- MTL L1
- PIT L2
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Defensemen To Target - NHL DFS Picks
John Carlson - Washington Capitals ($6.2K/$6.2K)
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Playing top minutes in all aspects of the game and facing a weak Montreal defense set John Carlson up for a strong showing. Over his past four games, Carlson has tallied five points while logging at least two blocks and three shots in all but one of them.
Carlson and his linemate Martin Fehevary boast an impressive 61.2% xGoals in even-strength play. He has played the No. 1 QB on the power play, leading Washington to generate the fourth-highest Expected Goals Per 60 this season.
Mike Matheson - Montreal Canadiens ($5.5K/$5.7K)
Opponent - Washington Capitals
I also want to target Mike Matheson, the other top defenseman in this matchup. Matheson plays on the top pairing alongside Kaiden Guhle and on the second power-play unit.
In 5-on-5 play, Matheson has generated high-scoring opportunities, averaging 2.07 xGoals For Per 60 an holding an overall 46.9% xGoals.
Mike Matheson ties the game for the Habs! @CanadiensMTL | #GoHabsGo | #NHLNShowcase pic.twitter.com/Y8y6jSuWzY
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) November 30, 2024
Over his past four contests, Matheson has logged at least three blocks and at least three shots in two of them. Facing a Washington team that has allowed the eighth-highest Expected Goals Against Per 60 in even-strength play should provide Matheson with several high-quality chances this evening.
Brock Faber - Minnesota Wild ($3.5K/$5.2K)
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
My final top defenseman to target this evening is Brock Faber of the Minnesota Wild. Playing on the top pairing with Jacob Middleton, Faber has generated an impressive 52% xGoals with 2.21 xGoals Per 60.
Despite only tallying one point over his previous four games, Faber has continued to produce a high number of blocked shots, providing him with a safe floor of fantasy production on a nightly basis. Over his past three games, Faber has tallied at least three blocks in two of them.
Overall, the 22-year-old has tallied 13 points across 24 games this season, with five of them coming on the man-advantage.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Morgan Rielly - Toronto Maple Leafs ($5.3K/$5.7K)
- Cale Makar - Colorado Avalanche ($8K/$7.4K)
- Evan Bouchard - Edmonton Oilers ($6.8K/$6.8K)
Goalies To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Darcy Kuemper - Los Angeles Kings ($7.9K/$7.9K)
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Darcy Kuemper was activated off the injured reserve earlier this week but has yet to return to action.
Before his undisclosed injury, Kuemper posted a strong 1.90 GAA and a .918% SV over his previous four outings.
Facing a Minnesota Wild team that has struggled to generate offensive opportunities (fourth-lowest Expected Goals For Per 60) which is surprising given their impressive 17-4-4 record, Kuemper could be a sneaky play in his return.
Stuart Skinner - Edmonton Oilers ($8.5K/$8.3K)
Opponent - St. Louis Blues
Stuart Skinner has been on a nice run as of late. Over his past three starts, Skinner has not allowed more than two goals in a single start and sits with a strong 1.35 GAA and .949% SV during this span.
Before this, Skinner posted a 3.72 GAA and .857% SV in his previous three starts.
This evening, he faces the St. Louis Blues, who have generated the eighth-fewest Expected Goals For Per 60.
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