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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an interesting matchup here, as Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns (3-8) head out west to take on the rookie Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos (7-5). The Browns have shown some life under Winston, as Bo Nix and Sean Payton have the Broncos firmly in playoff contention. Let’s see how this one plays out.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Browns vs. Broncos NFL DFS showdown slate on December 2. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos - $15K (DK), $16.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 2,548 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 64 rushing attempts, 300 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 13.54%
I’ll start things off with the rookie Bo Nix. Nix and the Broncos have been playing some pretty good football, and now get an interesting matchup against a Browns defense that has not been as daunting as years past. Nevertheless, Cleveland is coming in with their heads high (and on extra rest) following their victory last Thursday against the Steelers.
All 16 of Bo Nix's touchdowns in All-22 pic.twitter.com/CxzihJVNz6
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) November 29, 2024
My model has Nix throwing for 238.65 yards and 1.49 touchdowns, adding 19.85 yards and 0.12 touchdowns on the ground.
Jerry Jeudy - WR, Cleveland Browns - $13.5K (DK), $11.0K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 77 targets, 45 receptions, 645 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 3.8%
I’ll flip the field and look at Browns and former Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy next. Jeudy will be squaring off with the team that drafted him for the first time, so queue the revenge game narrative. While I’m not expecting a ton from the Browns offense tonight, I think Jeudy can carve out a solid game for himself against this Broncos defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against opposing offenses’ top receivers.
My model projects Jeudy to catch 5.82 of 7.62 targets for 61.78 yards and 0.31 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Broncos D/ST, Jameis Winston, Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams
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DFS Flex Plays
Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos - $10.2K (DK), $14.0K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 95 targets, 57 receptions, 744 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 16.6%
Though I will have some Jerry Jeudy shares in the captain/MVP spots, Bo Nix will be the top priority in most of my lineups. With that, I’ll look to pair Nix with a few of his pass catchers. Let’s start with Courtland Sutton, who has been one of the more underrated receivers in the league over the last half-decade.
Since Week 8, Courtland Sutton is the WR2 🤯
Averaging:
- 20.8 PPG
- 93.4 yards per game
- 9.6 targets per gameHe has 14 catches of 15+ yards (most in NFL) pic.twitter.com/YrYBVUAtDQ
— The Dynasty Grill (@FFDynastyGrill) November 26, 2024
My model projects Sutton to catch 6.29 of 8.85 targets for 78.61 yards and 0.53 touchdowns. He’s the top option in this offense, and I think this is an “air it out” kind of game for Denver.
Devaughn Vele - WR, Denver Broncos - $6.4K (DK), $9.0K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 41 targets, 32 receptions, 361 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 10.9%
After Sutton, our next option in the Broncos passing game will be Devaughn Vele. While Vele isn’t the “alpha” in this receiving room, he’s seen an uptick in targets of late. He caught 6-of-9 targets for 80 yards last week against the Raiders, and now draws a better matchup against this Browns defense.
My model projects Vele to catch 4.77 of 6.52 targets for 51.71 yards and 0.34 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Javonte Williams, Nick Chubb
DFS Value Plays
Broncos D/ST - $5.4K (DK), $9.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 16.83 points per game allowed, 44 sacks, nine interceptions, six fumble recoveries, and two defensive touchdowns.
I’ll be very heavy on the Broncos' offense tonight, I’ll look to stack with their defense as I predict this game to be a full rout in Denver. I think we all appreciate Jameis Winston for his quirky and fun-loving behavior, and while last week’s win against Pittsburgh was impressive, I think tonight’s game goes a little differently. I expect Denver to force multiple turnovers and perhaps find the end zone once themselves.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey - WR, Denver Broncos - $3.2K (DK), $6.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 42 targets, 29 receptions, 267 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs Other WR: 12.2%
I’ll wrap things up with one more pass-catcher for Bo Nix in Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Aside from a “breakout” game in Week 11 against the Falcons, Humphrey has been rather pedestrian this season. While that’s not saying much for a third receiver on a league-average passing offense, we could see fireworks from him tonight against this Browns defense that struggles against the pass.
My model projects Humphrey to catch 2.54 of his 3.41 targets for 32.22 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. It’s more or less a “punt” play, but I like the optics here.
Other Value Plays: Audric Estime, Troy Franklin, Jerome Ford, Jaleel McLaughlin
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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