High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 14 Lineups Including Jared Goff, Jordan Addison, Mike Gesicki, Sam Darnold, Christian Watson, More

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 14 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 14.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. After a one-week hiatus, we're back to dealing with bye weeks, and this one's tough. The Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders are on a bye. It takes some great offenses out of contention for this week.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

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Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, Pro Football Focus, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 13 started with the trio of Thanksgiving games, which had some wild finishes. One of those included a blunder that resulted in Matt Eberflus getting fired. Two of the three came down to the final possession, but the three favored teams were victorious. That trend continued into Friday when the Chiefs pulled yet another rabbit out of the hat.

We enjoyed another snow game in Buffalo, which reminds us that December has arrived. We also had another AFC North shootout, this time between the Bengals and Steelers, which resulted in a combined 82 points. After the Buccaneers needed extra time to beat the Panthers, we're up to seven overtime contests. The offensive output was higher than average. The week culminated in a fantastic back-and-forth contest between Denver and Cleveland.

It was a great week for passing and rushing. Six signal-callers threw for 300 yards, and five tossed at least three touchdowns, including Russell Wilson, who passed for 414 yards and three scores, and Jameis Winston, who threw for 497 yards and four scores. Similarly, eight tailbacks went over 100 yards rushing, but none rushed for multiple scores, which is unusual. Seven teams scored 30 points, including three over 40, while none were under 10. It was spectacular.

• Buffalo Bills - 35 points scored (5th)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 26 points scored (tied for 9th)
• Philadelphia Eagles - 24 points scored (tied for 12th)
• Los Angeles Rams - 21 points scored (tied for 19th)
• Baltimore Ravens - 19 points scored (tied for 25th)

For the second straight week, some unexpected teams led the way. The top 10 included the Broncos, Browns, Cowboys, and Colts. It was another strange week in that sense. We maintained our consistency again with every team scoring at least 19 points. We didn't miss on anyone and landed two top-10 offenses.

A season-high eight special teams or defensive touchdowns contributed to the inflated scoring totals in Week 13. None of our selections accounted for one, which pumps up our picks. Nevertheless, we'll aim higher with five new offenses for Week 14.

Week 14 Offenses to Target

• • Detroit Lions
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Minnesota Vikings

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

Entering Week 13, we expected the gap between the home and road teams to narrow. However, it got slightly wider with home teams increasing by 0.1 points and road teams decreasing by 0.02 points. Home teams such as Dallas, Denver, and New England exceeded their outlook, while the juggernauts like Buffalo, Washington, Cincinnati, and Green Bay got the job done. Host squads including Philly, Minnesota, Detroit, and Miami should keep the advantage in Week 14.

The offensive touchdowns metric contains the highest points scored category and has the largest differential. This trend may strengthen as the season progresses and teams are eliminated from the playoffs. The offensive yards metric isn't far behind. However, the discrepancy between categories isn't as large, so targeting teams in the "average" range is a viable option.

There was a bump in the points scored for the "above average" and "average" categories in the plays-per-game metric. Part of that was thanks to the fireworks between the Browns and Broncos, who ran a combined 148 plays on Monday. Furthermore, the Commanders, Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Falcons had at least 80. Things are leveling out a little as the data set grows.

Week 14 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Detroit Lions

Detroit did not play its best football on Thanksgiving. That said, it ended its seven-year drought on that festive holiday with a tight win over the Bears. Chicago should have sent that one to overtime, but inexcusable clock management gave the Lions the win and cost Matt Eberflus his job. It was a runaway in the first half, but the offense stalled in the final two quarters and it suffered more defensive injuries.

The Lions still rank first in points per game with 31.92 and in offensive touchdowns with 3.75, second in offensive yards with 395.17, and 10th in plays per week with 63.75. They remain one of the best offenses in football with so many ways to beat you. Additionally, while losing defensive personnel isn't good for them from an NFL perspective, it does help for fantasy.

They check all the boxes this week, including playing at home, meeting the offensive thresholds, and having an opponent that can also score. It's a rematch between them and the Packers. However, this time it's in a dome, where the weather won't matter. Vegas certainly agrees, given the over/under is at 51. It's the highest of the week.

The obvious: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery are locked in your lineup. Week 13 was special for Montgomery, who handled 70% of Detroit's running back rushes against his old team. Gibbs will likely receive more touches this week, but both can find the end zone.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Jared Goff had a good but not great game against the Bears, but much of that was their struggles in the red zone. With multiple high-end signal-callers on a bye, Goff is a top-12 option.

Player No. 2 - Sam LaPorta's inconsistency continues. He managed to haul in a pair of touchdowns last week. His target share increased from 11.1% over his first six games to 22.2% over his past five outings. It's a promising sign and part of why he's a streamer this week.

Offense No. 2 - Green Bay Packers

The Packers took advantage of home field against the Dolphins. It's one of the more difficult places to play, especially this time of year. They were evenly balanced with 28 passing attempts compared to 25 rushing. They also led 27-3 early in the third quarter, so it was never close. It marks their second consecutive easy win after a scare against the Bears.

Their offense has scored 26.5 points per game (eighth), 2.92 offensive touchdowns (eighth), and 283.83 offensive yards (third) on 61.12 plays per week. They're a potent offense that few teams have found a way to stop.

One of the teams that gave them trouble was Detroit, but Jordan Love wasn't healthy and it was before they got their rushing attack firing on all cylinders. There should be more scoring in a closer contest this week.

The obvious: Josh Jacobs is the most trustworthy fantasy asset in this offense. They're leaning on him more and he's delivering. Next to him, Jayden Reed, who had a target share of 21.4% against the Dolphins, his highest since Week 5, and found the end zone twice, is the best bet.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Tucker Kraft rebounded after two down weeks with six receptions for 78 yards. He seemed to be the beneficiary of Romeo Doubs' absence. He's a strong streamer with six teams on bye.

Player No. 2 - Christian Watson is ping-ponging between successful and disappointing performances. Unfortunately, last week was the latter. However, he had a couple of deep shots that didn't work out and still finished with 67 yards receiving. He's the upside player to call your shot on.

Player No. 3 - The confusion of which receiving option is most valuable was an issue in 2023 as well. The difference is that we knew we could count on Jordan Love for a big day. He's been outside the top 10 more often than not, especially since Jacobs started scoring touchdowns the past few weeks. There are too many missing quarterbacks not to consider him, but his floor isn't as safe as last year.

Offense No. 3 - Miami Dolphins

The narrative entering Week 13 was that the Dolphins can't handle cold weather. They did struggle at Lambeau, but some of that is simply being on the road against a top-notch franchise. Most of their production came in comeback mode, but it was there nevertheless. The loss puts a damper on their playoff chances, but they're still alive, so you'd expect more of the same in Week 14.

It was their lowest point total since the return of Tua Tagovailoa in Week 8. With him back, they're averaging 27 points per game, three offensive touchdowns, and 348.17 offensive yards. So as long as he's under center, they're a top-10 offense.

They'll get their shot to bounce back in the first of two meetings against the Jets, whose defense has crumbled. What was once a frightening matchup is now average at best. In its past three outings, New York has allowed 28.3 points, which is the seventh worst in the NFL.

The obvious: Jonnu Smith, De'Von Achane, and Tua Tagovailoa are the new trio for Miami. It's strange to see Smith in this group, but he's been among the most valuable tight ends for fantasy since Tagovailoa returned. He's a must-start along with Achane, who operates more as a receiver than a runner. Tagovailoa is averaging 323.33 yards and three touchdowns in his last three outings. He's in the top 10.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Tyreek Hill salvaged another poor outing with a deflected pass that he hauled in for a touchdown. It was Smith's target, which illustrates the concern. Since Tagovailoa's return in Week 8, Smith has 46 targets, compared to 41 for Hill. He's no longer a must-start wideout.

Player No. 2 - After crushing the Patriots two weeks ago with eight grabs for 144 yards and a score, Jaylen Waddle resumed his abysmal season, hauling in four passes for 53 yards. Like Hill, he has to be mentioned here, but he's not someone to force into your lineup.

Offense No. 4 - Cincinnati Bengals

Of all the quarterbacks in tough situations, there is no one to feel worse for than Joe Burrow. Each week, the offense lights the world on fire only to watch the defense bleed points to the opponent. The Bengals have been shockingly bad while wasting the talents of Burrow and Co. They've scored 30 points six times this season and won one time. There's nothing more the offense can do, which is concerning because the Bengals are essentially eliminated from the playoffs.

The stats back it up. They're sixth in points per game with 27.92, fourth in offensive touchdowns with 3.25, and ninth in offensive yards with 356.

This week, they head to Arlington to face a feisty Dallas team that showed some heart on Thanksgiving, especially defensively. That won't matter for Cincinnati's offense, but the resurgence of the Cowboys offense could set up a shootout. The over/under of 49.5 also supports that thought.

The obvious: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, and Joe Burrow are staples in your lineup. They're matchup-proof with elite ceilings.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Beyond that quartet, Mike Gesicki has emerged as a consistent streamer, even with Higgins on the field. The matchup is mediocre, but in a great offense against a defense built to rush the quarterback, he could be an outlet for Burrow.

Offense No. 5 - Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota continues to churn out close wins. This time it was against Arizona, which led most of the game. The Vikings offense has taken a step back relative to earlier in the season when they were dominating. However, they can still support multiple fantasy options and exploit plus matchups.

Despite the regression, they sit ninth in points per game at 24.75, ninth in offensive touchdowns at 2.42, 13th in offensive yards, and 23rd in plays per week at 61.08. The dependability is there, but it just hasn't been the same players every week.

Next up is another contest at U.S. Bank Stadium against the reeling Falcons. Atlanta may have a Kirk Cousins problem, but it also has issues against the pass. It's a juicy matchup where all the Vikings offensive weapons could feast.

The obvious: Justin Jefferson saw a 30% target share on Sunday, his highest since Week 8. Like the rest of the offense, the number of elite performances has dipped in the second half of the season, but this week sets up well. It's also a great spot for Aaron Jones, who fumbled twice against the Cardinals. Minnesota should see a positive game script, enabling it to pound the rock.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Sam Darnold threw a pair of second-half touchdowns to mount a comeback win. He's more volatile than he was during their winning streak, but given the absence of several signal-callers, he's among the top 12.

Player No. 2 - T.J. Hockenson has yet to pair together consecutive quality outings, but his usage is trending upward. He also capitalized on Josh Oliver missing Week 13. Hockenson's outlook is better if Oliver misses, but he's a streamer either way.

Played No. 3 - Jordan Addison's boom-bust nature remains intact. Last week was more bust with four receptions for 54 yards. We've seen this for several weeks now. If he hauls in the long touchdown catch, he's great, but otherwise, he's risky. The matchup increases the odds of a boom week, so he's worth consideration as a flex option.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 14. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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