Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 12 - Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift, more

Kev's fantasy football warning signals and lineup sit 'ems for Week 12 (2024). Who should I start instead of these players worth benching, sitting, and avoiding?

One of the worst feelings you can get in fantasy football is starting a player you expect to perform well and watching him drop a dud. The NFL is a heavily matchup-based league right down to individual position groups on both sides of the ball. In addition, an injury to a single player can create disastrous results.

Things like the loss of a single offensive lineman or a bad schematic matchup can lead to a bad fantasy performance, and this effect can be exacerbated when a player's already showing warning signs in his play during the season. It's vitally important to know that simply considering the last few games in player evaluations isn't a good idea. 

Streaks of great games followed by duds are extremely common. "He scored a bunch in the last few games, so you have to start him" isn't always the best strategy. So, which players should you consider benching in Week 12? Let's look at a couple of players' outlooks to find out who can succeed for fantasy managers and who should remain on the sidelines.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba is unlikely to be benched by many fantasy managers this week, considering he's ripped off two big games in a row. In Week 9, he caught seven of 13 targets for 180 yards and two touchdowns, had a bye week, then came back and caught 10 of his 11 looks for 110 yards.

JSN against Cover 3 (Cards run Cover 3 at 7th highest rate in the NFL:

- Vs. All Coverages: 23% TPRR, 1.85 YPRR, 24.3% 1st Read Tgt Share
- Vs. Cover 3: 16% TPRR, 0.94 YPRR, 20.9% 1st Read Tgt Share

Really sharp declines here, we might be seeing the JSN hot streak coming to an… https://t.co/eqOlTv6nHf

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) November 22, 2024

But fantasy football analyst Dataroma dug up this intriguing stat -- JSN struggles against the preferred type of coverage Arizona runs. And it's pretty bad. It's easy to have a short-term memory in fantasy football, but Smith-Njigba has only scored above 15 PPR fantasy points in three of his 10 contests this season.

Expecting 20+ points each game to be the new norm isn't a good idea when he's not the No. 1 receiver (DK Metcalf is, and that's not changing), and he has such starkly different splits between different types of coverages. Different WRs have skill sets that are best for attacking different coverages.

DK Metcalf sees the Cardinals who run Cover 3 at the 7th highest rate in the NFL (36%). DK has eaten vs Cover 3 this year, see below:

- Vs. All Coverages: 25% TPRR, 2.32 YPRR, 27.5% 1st Read Tgt Share
- Vs. Cover 3: 34% TPRR, 2.82 YPRR, 32.6% 1st Read Tgt Share

Could be a huge…

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) November 22, 2024

Quarterback Geno Smith seems to know this, targeting JSN over 30% less when defenses are in Cover 3 formations. In leagues with 10 or fewer teams, you should consider benching him, especially in non-PPR leagues.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

This is another bold take, but in the case of Taylor, it's quite revealing to look at his last game as a warning sign. This is because the team lost its starting center, Ryan Kelly, to an injury that now has him placed on Injured Reserve. The team's interior run blocking in Week 11 was horrific.

All-Pro Quinnen Williams is here to stay.

Williams finished with 7 (!) run stops in Week 11, 3 more than any other iDL in the NFL.

Williams also added a team-high 4 pressures, 2 QB hits, and a sack.

Huge reason the #Jets were able to contain Jonathan Taylor. Awesome game.

— Justin Fried (@JustinTFried) November 18, 2024

The interior of the New York Jets defensive line absolutely dominated in Week 11, holding Taylor to just 57 yards on 24 carries. He didn't score a touchdown despite plenty of carries near the goal line because he didn't have any room to run.

Somebody check on Jalen Mills. My God Anthony Richardson. pic.twitter.com/eAduraIfPv

— CLew 🏈🏀⚾️🥊 (@droppedballspod) November 17, 2024

In addition, JT has quarterback Anthony Richardson, one of the best QB rushing talents in the league, to vulture touchdowns away from him. Their opponent in Week 12, the Detroit Lions, are a nightmare matchup -- they easily have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

To make matters worse, they're softer against quarterback runs. And they have an elite defensive tackle in Alim McNeill that's one of the league's most disruptive. Also Taylor doesn't get targeted much in the passing game. If he's not able to break off a few big runs, it could be a brutal game for him.

Similar to our advice on JSN, he should still be started in deeper leagues. But outside of those, he should be benched, especially in PPR.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

Hubbard has been on a heater this season, no doubt. He's been one of the best value draft picks of the 2024 fantasy season, and he's the RB12 in full-PPR scoring so far. The matchup is absolutely abysmal, though. The Kansas City Chiefs, who he'll face in Week 12, allowed just 14.9 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

Leo Chenal in 85 run defense snaps has not missed a tackle this season. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/0CkDYb37fm

— Chiefs Hive (@chiefshive) October 30, 2024

There aren't any key injuries along the interior of the offensive line, but especially in PPR formats, running backs with little pass-catching upside in nightmarish matchups are prime bust candidates. Of course, many fantasy managers won't have a suitable replacement for him this week.

Obviously, in that scenario, it's best to leave him in your lineup. But he shouldn't be prioritized over other good players with easier matchups. Kansas City has not allowed an opposing player to rush for 60 or more yards this season a single time. In addition, this game could end up being a blowout in their favor.

That would presumably cause Carolina to largely abandon the run game. Hubbard isn't a big pass-catching back, so he presents little upside if the team starts calling mostly pass plays.

D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

Dataroma (not affiliated with RotoBaller) comes through for us (fantasy managers) again with another banger stat find on Swift (groin). It's known that the Minnesota Vikings run defense he'll be facing in Week 12 is excellent. They're the second-toughest run defense behind the Chiefs. They allow just 3.6 yards per rush attempt by opposing teams this season.

D'andre Swift has the highest Stuff Rate of any RB (54.8%) in the NFL with at least 75 attempts (per @FantasyPtsData).

He sees the Minnesota Vikings this week, who lead all NFL defenses in Stuff Rate (51.5%).

Could be an absolutely brutal showing for Swift this weekend. However…

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) November 22, 2024

The data suggests it's worse, though. Minnesota's biggest strength in stopping the run game is also Swift's biggest statistical weakness as a runner -- stuff rate. This particular definition of stuff rate encapsulates the ability to generate at least a decent gain, first down, or touchdown on a given play.

Swift will have his hands full on Sunday. He's also dealing with a groin issue, and while he's expected to play, he could cede touches to his backup, Johnson, if the team opts to try to limit his workload. It could get ugly quickly for Swift. The opposing high-powered Minny offense could get ahead of Chicago by a lot and quickly.

It helps that the Bears have a great defense. But they'll need to put together long drives on offense to give themselves plenty of chances to run the ball if No. 4 is to have a big day. Plenty of targets would help, too, though he's been involved in the passing game often.

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