Jonnu Smith Fantasy Football Outlook - Was His Big Game Legit or a Fluke?

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith had his first big game in Week 7, but he broke out in an even bigger way in Week 11 in a win against the Las Vegas Raiders. He caught six of his eight targets for 101 yards and a touchdown in the 34-19 win.

His biggest play came on a 57-yard touchdown catch to put the game on ice and make the score 30-19 with 3:19 left in the fourth quarter. Smith's clutch performance elevated the Dolphins to 4-6 and kept their dim playoff hopes alive.

So was his big game legit or a fluke? Can he be a fantasy football league-winner this season, and should you pick up or start him for Week 12?

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Why Did Jonnu Smith Have a Huge Game? 

The first reason is that he continued to earn targets at a higher rate than expected. On a team with wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running back De'Von Achane, it seems reasonable to think there wouldn't be much room for other pass-catchers to succeed, but the former Atlanta Falcon has bucked that trend.

How does the MIA receiver room stack up in Tua's starts?

By receiving FPG:
1. De'Von Achane - 17.8
2. Tyreek Hill - 14.5
3. Jaylen Waddle - 10.2
4. Jonnu Smith - 7.2

By target share:
1. Tyreek Hill - 21.8%
2. De'Von Achane - 20.4%
3. Jonnu Smith - 14.8%
4. Jaylen Waddle - 12.0%

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 5, 2024

Somewhat shockingly, we've actually seen the eighth-year pro's target share exceed that of Waddle. After 2022, when Waddle racked up 1,356 receiving yards and eight touchdown grabs, it would have seemed insane to think that a free-agent tight end signing would be a higher priority in the passing game, but here we are.

Another reason is his yards after catch ability, which we'll dive into later. But he displayed it well here, escaping from the entire defense and running away for a long touchdown to all but seal a victory.

Raiders go Cover 0, and no one had the TE deep.

Tua to Jonnu Smith for 57-yard Dolphins touchdown:
pic.twitter.com/5d9UwcXDqf https://t.co/TPesHjXDVg

— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) November 17, 2024

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel's scheme also helped him do well. Miami's playcalling has received much criticism this season, in large part from fantasy managers of Hill and Waddle, but McD is a master of taking what the defense gives him. He's still perfectly willing to call deep shots when he thinks they'll work.

It also shouldn't be overlooked that this was a horrendously busted coverage by the opposing Raiders defense. They left an entire portion of the field wide open. Smith's speed helped him take it home, though. Many tight ends would have been caught by the safety that streaked towards him near the end of the play.

Still, the TE position isn't one for fantasy managers to nitpick. Any player who posts solid production with boom games sprinkled in is a luxury to have on rosters at a position that's been miserable to deal with so far this year, though it's lightened up somewhat from earlier on.

Will Jonnu Smith Continue to Dominate? 

It's safe to say very few predicted him to put up dominant stat lines this season. He signed with Miami on March 8, 2024, after being released from the Falcons. While he had some solid games with his former team, he produced too inconsistently in his old offense to be a reliable fantasy option.

I have one final honorable mention YAC Prince to highlight before we get to the YAC Kings:

Miami Dolphins offseason acquisition TE Jonnu Smith

I am very excited to see Mike McDaniel weaponize Jonnu's YAC ability pic.twitter.com/UqRzlLvI5Q

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 1, 2024

Sometimes, a change in scenery can help a player out immensely though. As fantasy football analyst Jacob Gibbs alludes to, McDaniel is fantastic at scheming plays that allow his players to maximize their abilities to create yards after the catch, which Smith excels at.

Creating YAC isn't something we typically see tight ends do at a high level, but No. 9 is clearly an exception. We've already seen instances of his ability to weave through traffic, avoid tackle attempts, and power forward for more yards with the ball in his hands.

Jonnu Smith is the best TE we’ve had since Charles Clay‼️

Absolute ELITE signing this Off Season

Also…. Friend of the Pod @TheDiveBarPod pic.twitter.com/mFQs9dSQPn

— JoeRobbie (@JoeRobbie_) November 12, 2024

He has the tools, and he's in the right scheme, so it's hard to think he won't at least be a solid starter in fantasy leagues for the rest of the year. Defenses have become centered around taking away the deep shots after seeing Hill's 2023 dominance, and the offense has adjusted to compensate, which benefits Smith.

What Will the Rest of Jonnu Smith's Season Look Like? 

He should be a locked-in starter in fantasy leagues and maintain his status as a TE1. He's the eighth-ranked player at his position despite having missed a game due to his bye week, and he's earned eight, seven, six, six, four, and eight targets in his last six contests, which are excellent numbers.

Jaylen Waddle
33 receptions, 404 yards, 1 TD

Jonnu Smith
39 receptions, 448 yards, 3 TDs

De'Von Achane
46 receptions, 349 yards, 3 TDs

Jaylen Waddle has been the Dolphins' 4th option in the passing game this year

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 20, 2024

It's pretty clear now that opposing teams are selling out to stop the huge YAC plays and downfield missiles from leading to huge plays and touchdowns for Miami. Waddle broke away for huge scores multiple times in 2022, but his production regressed majorly last season, and has dipped even further in 2024.

Hill, meanwhile, is dealing with a torn ligament in his wrist, which could give him more problems down the stretch. He's also 30 years old, and the age cliff comes fast for some players. Other than an 80-yard touchdown on a busted coverage against the worst pass defense in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars, he's been mostly quiet.

Tyreek Hill is so back 🙌 pic.twitter.com/bBDPKMU0ij

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 17, 2024

We've seen him make plays, but they've been much shorter than in previous years. Miami's quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, hasn't been throwing the ball as deep as he has in previous seasons, and a shorter average depth of target (ADOT) surely benefits Smith and his YAC god abilities.

📊 Tua Tagovailoa under pressure since returning (league ranks):

➖ 78.3% passing (1st)
➖ 246 passing yards (8th)
➖ 10.7 yards per attempt (2nd)
➖ 4 passing touchdowns (2nd)
➖ 0 interceptions (t-1st)
➖ 15 first downs (t-5th)
➖ 150.8 passer rating (1st)

(@PFF) #GoFins pic.twitter.com/LVA4joPY51

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) November 18, 2024

The offense focused on shorter throws and quicker time to throw has actually been working, so expecting it to change overnight simply because Hill and Waddle are fast isn't reasonable.

Should I Pick Up or Start Jonnu Smith Week 12? 

He's already on rosters in 58% of Sleeper leagues. Chances are that he's been picked up in your league, but if he hasn't been, now is a good time to do it. You should probably start him, though. Miami's offense is playing well, and he's established a solid role. Tight end production is a mercurial thing, so down games are likely to happen.

But you should chase upside in fantasy football, and Smith has it.

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