2024 College Football Playoff Picture, Projections, Outlook (Week 13 Update)

This was intended to be a monthly update of the playoff picture, but things have gotten wild in the first couple weeks of November. Wild enough that we at RotoBaller thought it was necessary to do a weekly update for the last few weeks of the season. This is unlike anything we have seen before with 12 teams getting into the playoffs.

Texas and Oregon looked beatable in wins. BYU lost at home to a Kansas team on a mission. Tennessee got shut out in the second half in Athens, throwing the SEC into even more chaos by Georgia bringing everyone down to their level. Yes, it's that kind of season.

This new playoff system ushers in a new era of college football. I have been openly critical about this, but I hope I am proved wrong. I fear that once the novelty of all of these wild conference games wears off, we will be left with an unimportant regular season and a 32-team playoff. You know they're not stopping at 12. The apocalypse could happen in Year 1.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That will be the Power Four conference winners plus the next-highest-ranked conference champion.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. The top-four-ranked teams will be given a first-round "bye."

BREAKING:

The CFP has just approved the 5+7 12-team playoff model.

5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 highest-ranked at-large teams will get a spot.

The 2024 CFP will have one less automatic qualifier and one more at-large spot than the previously proposed 6+6 model. pic.twitter.com/Q0tQAcZ4J1

— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) February 20, 2024

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Those seven teams plus the other conference champion will play in the first round. Those games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of half-empty ready-made bowl stadiums. That is the one part about this playoff that I am in favor of.

Three-loss teams vying for a championship? If I wanted that mess, I would watch football on Sundays. There is a reason why I don't.

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

SMU took care of business and is all but assured a spot in the ACC Championship Game. The committee hates this. This system was not designed with teams like SMU, Indiana, and BYU in mind. The committee hopes for the failure of these teams because other teams are worth more money. Who would have guessed that college football is still run by money?

The second spot is down to Clemson and Miami. The ACC wants a Clemson-Miami title game, but they won't get it. The committee hopes that Miami sneaks in via the tiebreaker (they still aren't there) and beats SMU, rendering the ACC a one-bid league.

Big 12 (16):

BYU's loss to Kansas doesn't do much aside from guaranteeing that the Big 12 (16) is a one-bid league. The loser of the Big 12 (16) Championship will have two losses with one of them perceived as a "lesser" loss. BYU lost to Kansas and Colorado lost to Nebraska. For the sake of argument, this is still BYU's bid right now.

Big Ten (18):

Oregon escaped and is still with Indiana as the only undefeated team aside from Army. Oregon's SOS still has them as the automatic qualifier from the Big Ten (18)

SEC:

The SEC is somehow less of a disaster than last week...if you don't look at the rest of the schedule. Texas and Texas A&M are the two one-loss teams in the conference, but they play each other in Week 14. Assuming A&M loses, they're out of the SEC Championship. If A&M wins, then the SEC will have to let the Aggies play for the title.

Texas is the automatic qualifier right now. This won't be decided until Week 14 unless Texas somehow loses to Kentucky. Hey, Kentucky beat Mississippi. Strange things happen.

At-Large Champion:

Is it an undefeated Army or a one-loss Boise State? Boise nearly beat Oregon in Eugene, so I think it has to go to Boise. Besides, it will be a travesty if Ashton Jeanty isn't in this first expanded playoff.

If Army beats Notre Dame, I would say the Knights get in. Most are talking about the Irish as a playoff team despite a loss to MAC middleweight Northern Illinois at home. Fair is fair. If Army wins, they pass Boise.

College Football Playoff At-Large Bids

We have one undefeated team and four one-loss teams that aren't in. Louisiana's loss last week eliminates them from a conversation that they were never in to begin with. This also means at least one two-loss team will get in even without conference championship games.

ACC:

The ACC Championship will still be a problem for the conference. Even if SMU loses, the Mustangs might still sneak in due to the tiebreaker. SMU, Clemson, and Miami didn't play each other at all in the regular season. If SMU loses before the CCG, the conference doesn't go by ranking. They go by the combined record of conference opponents.

In that respect, SMU gets in. However, for this exercise, that's putting the cart in front of the horse. A one-loss Miami team is still in. A two-loss Clemson team is out despite one of the losses being to Georgia. The loss to Louisville at home looks bad. At least Miami lost on the road. Miami is still in.

Create mega conferences, they said. It'll be fun, they said. For the record, no one said this, and every sane college football fan I know realizes that these conferences are horrible for the sport. Most of them are in favor of the expanded playoff, but even they see that these conferences are out of hand.

Big 12 (16): 

BYU's loss last week assures that this is a one-bid league. Colorado's loss in Lincoln in September is holding them back.

Big Ten (18):

Can the Big Ten (18) get four teams into a 12-team playoff? If the playoffs were right now, yes. Ohio State's loss is to Oregon and Penn State's is to Ohio State. This scenario may not play out. Indiana still plays Ohio State. A loss for the Hoosiers might knock them out. A loss for the Buckeyes would likely knock them out. All four teams are still in right now.

SEC: 

Here is where it gets messy. The SEC is cannibalizing itself. Texas is still in right now despite lackluster wins. A&M has a claim, but the win over LSU no longer looks so impressive. A two-loss Alabama, which has beaten four top-25 teams, should have a better claim than either of the Texas teams. The Tide beat LSU and Missouri by a combined 63 points.

Georgia's win over Tennessee makes this tough. Two-loss Georgia, Tennesee, Mississippi, and Alabama are all still ranked higher than one-loss Texas A&M...whose loss was to a Notre Dame team that many consider to be in the playoffs.

Four Big Ten (18) teams in the playoff right now hurt the SEC. This playoff was designed with the SEC in mind. No one on that committee thought the Big Ten (18) could legitimately claim that many slots. The Big 12 (16) lost its at-large to a two-loss SEC team with BYU's loss.

Forget about what could happen later. That doesn't help our exercise now. Texas A&M claims one slot for having just one loss. That leaves Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi fighting for one spot if the Irish are in.

Alabama has four wins against the top 25 teams. The loss to Vandy hurts, but does it hurt enough to steal a bid? Doubtful, since Tennessee lost to Arkansas and Mississippi lost to Kentucky. Georgia, despite the head-to-head loss to Mississippi, is still in thanks to two quality losses (Alabama and Ole Miss) and a win over Tennessee.

Those pesky teams that won't join a conference:

No, we're not talking about Wazzu here, even though it is ranked. This is Notre Dame. Does a one-loss Notre Dame team make it in over a two-loss SEC team? That loss to Northern Illinois looks bad. The win at Texas A&M looks good and the Irish are piling up style points by running up the score.

Hey, I don't blame them and I don't have a problem with it. College football doesn't care about sportsmanship and hasn't in decades. The only ones who do are the coaches, but they all understand that you have to do what you have to do when it comes to style points. The fans get more bent out of shape about it than anyone involved in the games.

The problem for Notre Dame is that Northern Illinois is in the middle of the MAC. Their other big win over Louisville takes a hit thanks to Louisville's loss to a bad Stanford team. The Navy win? Tulane shut out Navy in Annapolis. That one loses some luster too.

Georgia's win over Tennesssee knocks the Irish out of my playoffs. The Irish were more or less promised a bid in a 12-team playoff despite not having a conference. I don't have to adhere to the backroom bulls**t that the committee did in a handshake deal with Notre Dame.

What I came up with for the seven at-large teams: Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, Miami, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State.

College Football Playoff As Of November 20

Byes: Oregon (1), Texas (3), Boise State (12), SMU (13)

Other automatic qualifier: BYU (14)

At-large teams: Ohio State (2), Penn State (4), Indiana (5), Alabama (7), Miami (8), Georgia (10), and Texas A&M (15)

Realistically, some form of UT, Bama, the other UT, and UGA will hold spots 1, 5, 6, 7

OSU, ORE, PSU will probably be 2, 8, 9

Given that scenario, i still would rather be the 5 seed playing a G5 champ then the B12 champ

As opposed to having a bye, then playing ORE or PSU

— #RunItUpJ (@TVGuy_JR) October 3, 2024

The second ACC bid is the weakest of the at-large bids right now. If SMU loses in the conference championship, the ACC likely only gets one team anyway. The SEC is hoping for carnage in the Big Ten (18), even though they did steal one bid this week from Notre Dame.

Farmageddon went from must-see TV (and a game that could have happened in four consecutive games) to just a fun rivalry in two short weeks. The Big 12 (14) is only getting one team regardless of the outcome of the Championship game. A one-loss BYU with the loss coming in the CCG would have still had a case. Now they don't.

These super-huge conferences are an issue. They will be the death of the 12-team playoff in a matter of three years or less. The Ohio State-Indiana game in two weeks is the only remaining game in the Big Ten (18) aside from the conference championship game that will have any bearing on the playoff.

The loser of the Big Ten (18) Championship Game will still get in. We can't say that for the SEC since the loser will likely have three losses. Right now, the Big Ten (18) has a decided advantage over everyone else. Oregon and Penn State play average-at-best teams down the stretch.

If you thought whittling the field down to four was tough (it wasn't ... 2023 was the only year of the four-team playoff where it could have been necessary), wait until you see the arguments over 12! I don't know about you, but I would rather be arguing over which one-loss team deserves a shot over arguing about which three-loss team deserves a shot.

If you're wondering what the older (and better) playoff system would look like now, it would feature three Big Ten (18) teams and one of the undefeated teams wouldn't be in. That's not much better...

Since we are doing this piece weekly now, I'm going to highlight a few games this weekend of interest.

Kentucky at Texas: A loss for Texas could eliminate the Longhorns. Wins against Michigan and Oklahoma haven't aged well and they don't have any other big wins. Yes, Arkansas beat Tennessee, but that feels like a lifetime ago.

Alabama at Oklahoma: You have no idea how glad I am that I didn't buy tickets to this game. Alabama should win easily. If they don't, they're out. A loss to Vanderbilt is one thing. A loss to a five-loss SEC team? No bueno.

Indiana at Ohio State: The Hoosiers had better treat this as a playoff game. The committee is looking for any reason to keep them out of the Big Boy's Club. A close loss by the Hoosiers would keep them in the conversation (but out of the CCG). A blowout loss relegates Indiana to the Rose Bowl.

Wake Forest at Miami: A loss for Miami would further weaken the ACC's case for an at-large bid.

Mississippi at Florida: This is not going to be an easy game for the boys from Oxford. Florida is dangerous when healthy, and they are finally healthy.

SMU at Virginia: A loss by SMU would still keep them in the CCG, but it would give the committee the green light to leave them out with a loss.

Penn State at Minnesota: This is a tough road game for Penn State. This is the kind of carnage the SEC and Notre Dame are looking for. A Penn State loss would throw a wrench into just about everything.

BYU at Arizona State: Kansas gave the Sun Devils hope. A win here would put them on the inside track to a Big 12 (16) Championship Game against Colorado. Unless...

Colorado at Kansas (City): The Jayhawks hurt BYU. They could ruin Colorado and take the last major step to an unlikely bowl berth.

Army vs. Notre Dame: The Knights get a favor with the game at Yankee Stadium, only a couple hours away from West Point. A win knocks the Irish out of everyone's playoff and creates a real conversation between Army and Boise for the other conference champion's automatic bid.

Boise State at Wyoming: Two weeks ago I would have said this was a yawner. Now, Wyoming will put up a fight with Evan Swoboda benched.

Texas A&M at Auburn: ES(EC)PN will tell you this is a big game. On paper, it shouldn't be. In reality, a loss by the Aggies would destroy their shot and make the SEC even more convoluted.

We are still college football fans, so we will argue over whatever they tell us to argue about. We could have a clearer picture by next week. It could be even worse. Who knows? Until then, happy arguing!

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