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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a fun Sunday Night Football matchup tonight featuring a pair of alumni from the 2020 draft as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) head out west to take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3). It should be a fun matchup between two teams in the mix of things in the AFC Wild Card race.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bengals vs. Chargers Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on November 17th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Justin Herbert - QB, $14,100 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 1,889 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, one interception, 36 rushing attempts, 117 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 37.2%
I’ll start tonight’s slate off with Justin Herbert. Under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have shifted their identity to a run-first, defensive team. While that hasn’t necessarily boded well for Herbert from a fantasy perspective, it certainly has increased his efficiency.
Justin Herbert vs. Joe Burrow.
Who would you start a team with right now? 👀 pic.twitter.com/wtsEIh5y9e
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 15, 2024
My model projects the Chargers to see a large boost in offense against this poor Bengals defense. Herbert projects to throw for 244.65 yards and 1.97 touchdowns while adding 20.11 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on the ground.
Chase Brown - RB, $14,400 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 118 rushing attempts, 521 rushing yards, 37 targets, 30 receptions, 150 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -14.57%
I’ll flip the field and take a look at Chase Brown next. Brown has stepped into the undisputed lead-back role following Zack Moss hitting the IR with a neck issue. Brown has been a monster six them, totaling 251 rushing and receiving yards and two touchdowns in his last two games.
Tonight, my model projects Brown to run the ball 15.2 times for 57.31 yards while adding 3.05 receptions on 4.32 targets for 19.97 yards and 0.29 touchdowns. It’s a relatively low projection, likely due to the Chargers strong defense against the run. Nevertheless, I feel Brown’s value is too high, given his projected volume as RB1.
Other Captains/MVPs: Joe Burrow, Ladd McConkey, Ja'Marr Chase
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Ladd McConkey - WR, $8,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 54 targets, 37 receptions, 492 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 15.5%
I’ll take a look at Chargers rookie receiver Ladd McConkey next. From a fantasy perspective, McConkey is having an up-and-down season, mostly due to a relative lack of volume. McConkey has made the most of his volume lately, though, catching 13 of 15 targets for 227 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games.
My model projects McConkey to catch 5.55 of 7.99 targets for 78.03 yards and 0.45 touchdowns. He has the second-best matchup among all Chargers pass-catchers tonight, aside from one guy I’ll talk about later.
Tee Higgins - WR, $8,600 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 45 targets, 29 receptions, 341 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 46.3%
We’ll take a swing at Tee Higgins tonight, who will be making his first start since Week 7. Higgins has been excellent in the five games he’s played in 2024, finishing with 12+ PPR points in each of his last four games.
My model projects Higgins to catch 4.76 of his 8.03 targets for 61.65 yards and 0.34 touchdowns. Higgins draws what looks to be by far the best matchup against the Chargers, who rank 31st against “No. 2” receivers.
Other Flex Options: Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, J.K. Dobbins
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Gus Edwards - RB, $3,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 48 rushing attempts, 168 rushing yards, one target, one reception, two receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -16.55%
I’ll take a look at Gus Edwards next. While I would much rather roll with J.K. Dobbins in a vacuum, I think the Chargers may be able to control the ground game, and if Edwards gets so much of 30-40% of the touches out of the Chargers backfield, we could have a home run hitter on our hands.
My model projects Edwards to see 8.1 carries for 38.03 yards and 0.33 touchdowns. I wish he could do a bit more in the passing game, but I’ll take what I can get, especially at his price.
Will Dissly - TE, $5,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 42 targets, 33 receptions, 272 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 14.4%
I’ll wrap things up with Will Dissly, my favorite play on tonight’s slate. Cincinnati ranks 25th in DVOA against the tight end position. Dissly sees 27% targets per route run, which pairs well with this Bengals defense that ranks 31st in targets allowed to tight ends in the last four weeks.
Will Dissly has a favorable matchup inline against the Bengals defense
Dissly ranks 9th in receiving yards when lined up inline. The Bengals defense has struggled against inline TEs, ranking 27th in receiving yards allowed to that alignment. pic.twitter.com/1ObXpx7200
— PFF LA Chargers (@PFF_Chargers) November 16, 2024
My model projects Dissly to catch 4.67 of 5.97 for 42.05 receiving yards and 0.27 touchdowns. He hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, but I’ll bet that changes tonight against this Bengals defense that’s allowed six touchdowns in ten games this season and three touchdowns in their last four games.
Other Value Options: Cameron Dicker, Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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