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Should I start D.J. Moore for fantasy football in Week 11 of 2024? Read the D.J. Moore fantasy football outlook for Week 11 and rest-of-season as well.
Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore is one player who was universally drafted in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts in 2024. He's also a player who's come nowhere close to living up to his pre-draft expectations, causing many fantasy managers to wonder what is happening in the world.
After a finish as the WR6 overall in full-PPR scoring with quarterback Justin Fields, not exactly one of the league's best, throwing the ball to him, it seemed that the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft could boost him to even further heights. That hasn't come anywhere close to happening.
So what's wrong with Moore? Why is he having a down season? Will he be able to turn it around? Let's dive into this ugly situation.
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Problem One: The (Now Fired) Offensive Coordinator
The Bears just fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. To put it simply, he didn't do a very good job with the offense. Between puzzling personnel decisions (dude, just put WR Rome Odunze on the field in 2WR sets) and questionable playcalling, Waldron didn't take long to lose his job.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba basically told us months ago that OC Shane Waldron was going to be a disaster for the Chicago Bears pic.twitter.com/xjCZGBAN3s
— Colin McTamany (@Colin_McT) November 12, 2024
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had to suffer through Waldron's awful coaching in his rookie year in Seattle, and his failure to say anything positive about his former OC's skill as a coach says everything. The passing and rushing attack have often looked completely lost.
Please look at the Chicago Bears offensive line on this 4th and goal at the 1 yard line. All of them are on the ground and the entire Colts defensive line is in the backfield. Truly comical picture right here. I’m not a fan of Shane Waldron at all pic.twitter.com/NDHjlk39IT
— John Stoned 🐻🍊 (@KingCalebSZN) September 22, 2024
Imagine picking up running back D'Andre Swift, having bruiser and solid goal-line back Roschon Johnson on the roster, and calling a play that hands off the ball to offensive linemen in the fourth quarter of a pivotal close game.
Oof... The Bears hand the ball off to an offensive lineman at the goal line and he immediately fumbles 😬
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/jQE0G5n0Nf
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 27, 2024
Problem Two: Yes, Caleb Williams Really Has Been Terrible
There's a MUCH bigger problem, and it's that quarterback Caleb Williams has played terribly. There are a lot of people who won't like reading this, and plenty who try their best to twist the narrative as if anyone who has something negative to say about the rookie is "just a hater."
I asked #Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron if Caleb Williams should've thrown the football to DJ Moore on this third-and-10 play against the Cardinals.
Williams threw to Keenan Allen, and the pass fell incomplete. Moore was running wide open in the middle of the field.… pic.twitter.com/qh4tbc76mS
— Nicholas Moreano (@NicholasMoreano) November 7, 2024
But when the film and the stats perfectly agree to show that a player is insufficient, he is just terrible. There isn't any way around this.
A lot of people have been asking me about Caleb Williams’ struggles today, and you can blame the coaches and offensive line all you want…
But the biggest issues are still that he’s “off-book” and inaccurate.
He’s an off-book, off-schedule, try to make shit happen… pic.twitter.com/ijYh7ijxC5
— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) November 11, 2024
There are already numerous cut-ups of Williams having clean pockets (so you can't blame the offensive line) and open receivers (so you can't blame the playcalling, and you definitely can't blame the wideouts) and simply missing. The offensive coordinator can't throw the ball for the QB.
Caleb Williams has the 4th-most vertical throws and has completed 24% of them pic.twitter.com/dxn68nMJS2
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) November 13, 2024
An inability to throw catchable passes spells doom for offenses. That's not the only problem he has, either. He made a killing in college, making wild, off-script plays, scrambling around, and buying time to set up hero throws. The problem is he's not as athletic as Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, or even Drake Maye.
Caleb Williams trying to scramble backwards in the nfl vs grown lmao this isn’t the pac 12 pic.twitter.com/PrCjlI1Hir
— John (@iam_johnw) September 8, 2024
He does not have the quickness or elusiveness to make these things happen against NFL defenders. Even the guys weighing over 250 pounds can catch him. It's simply incorrect to dismiss these takes as "hate" -- his penchant for turning pressures into losses is one of the worst in years.
How bad has Caleb Williams been?
In terms of accuracy and sack avoidance, it's the worst QB season in recent memory. Worse than any season from Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, or Justin Fields, as impossible as that may seem
cc: @FantasyPtsData / @fball_insights pic.twitter.com/ulS1DDvn6z
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 15, 2024
On non-screen plays, he's thrown the least percentage of catchable passes in the last four seasons. He's also been the second-worst at avoiding sacks when pressured. Pressure-to-sack rate controls for offensive line play -- you can't blame the OL for this being bad.
The lack of accuracy robs Moore of scoring opportunities and chances to gain yards. As the first clip shows, Williams often doesn't make the right reads. Expecting C.W. to be excellent in other areas despite his huge deficiencies here wouldn't make much sense.
It's as bad as you think....
All 22 QB Breakdown: Caleb Williams pic.twitter.com/f9YgvoZb90
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) November 5, 2024
If you really want to watch a long film breakdown, former NFL QB Chase Daniel made an excellent video on the subject.
Will D.J. Moore Turn It Around?
It's really not his fault. The better question to ask is whether Williams will turn it around, and it seems unlikely that he'll completely reverse the poor trends he's exhibiting and become a good quarterback. It doesn't help how much target competition Moore has to face, either.
The team drafted Odunze with a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and signed veteran receiver Keenan Allen into the mix. Add in tight end Cole Kmet and running back D'Andre Swift, a solid pass-catcher in his own right, and you don't have a recipe for success for Moore.
It's Less NOT Moore fantasy production for me this week for D.J. pic.twitter.com/TQNLg4VHCt
— Shane McCormick (@SMcCormick_FF) November 16, 2024
Even so, we didn't expect it to be this horrendous. It seems, though, with defenses gaining the upper hand in recent years, that the bad offenses can be extremely ugly. Chicago's O is no exception. Aside from a few games against some of the NFL's most atrocious defenses, they've floundered about and barely gotten anything going.
The NFL's embodiment of Magikarp, a Pokemon that literally does nothing except flail about, isn't likely to evolve overnight into a Gyarados, a large and powerful dragon. Instead, we may just have to get used to DJ's new reality -- he's stuck in a horrible offensive situation that he can't get out of.
He'll likely be a bench warmer in many fantasy leagues for the rest of the season unless something big changes. And he definitely shouldn't be started in Week 11. Sure, a fluke game can always happen, and he has excellent talent, but sometimes chains are only as strong as their weakest link. And this year's No. 1 overall draft pick has been a historically weak link.
Me watching the Bears lose by 3 scores to the Packers this weekend but then I realize we’re one step closer to Matt Eberflus getting fired pic.twitter.com/fQ0GJ9S9Wj
— Chicago Football Connection (@CFCBears) November 15, 2024
And they have to face the Packers in Week 11... oof.
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