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Welcome back to the Week 10 edition of our fantasy football busts, and players that may disappoint for fantasy managers.
The running back rebound is the theme of the 2024 fantasy football season. There have been few injuries to the best runners. Therefore, the position has dominated appearances in this column. A down week happens. Other running backs are suppressing the upside of their quarterbacks and wide receivers. Will the theme continue in Week 10 and beyond?
Let's take a look. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Tony Pollard (RB, TEN) at Los Angeles Chargers
Tony Pollard has been the lone bright spot of a floundering Tennessee offense. He has 20+ touches in four of the last five games and just tallied 31 against the Patriots. That's 31 touches after entering Sunday as a game-time decision. Even Superman has his limits.
Callahan: Would love to get RB Tyjae Spears back. Team would love to reduce Tony Pollard's workload, because all the carries are wearing on him @Titans
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) November 4, 2024
The Titans don't want to wear out Pollard, but coaches didn't have any other choice. Tyjae Spears has missed the last three games because of a hamstring injury. He practiced last week before being ruled out. His return could come against the Chargers.
The Titans couldn't lean on the passing game because that's a disaster. Mason Rudolph and Will Levis have combined to throw an interception in every game.
The Chargers allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs in the last four weeks. They are second for the entire season. If Spears returns to ease Pollard's workload, plus the matchup, Pollard will fall short of fantasy managers' current expectations for him.
Tank Bigsby (RB, JAX) vs. Minnesota
The conversation about Jacksonville's running backs begins with game scripts. In wins and one-score games (excluding last week because Philadelphia was ahead by multiple scores for most of the game and Week 2 when he didn't play an offensive snap), Tank Bigsby averages 92 rushing yards per game. He averages 18.3 rushing yards per game in blowout losses (again, counting Philadelphia as a blowout loss). It's a rarity to see any production in the passing game.
Couple different looks at QB Trevor Lawrence (upper-body) during media-viewing portion of practice today.
With Lawrence “unlikely” to play vs #Vikings (per @RapSheet), Mac Jones the first QB to go through drills. #Jaguars | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/g5CD0LwEBl
— Mia O'Brien (@MiaOBrienTV) November 7, 2024
The Vikings are seven-point road favorites, and the Jaguars are likely to be without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Mac Jones would get the start. Brian Flores' defense is designed to bait quarterbacks into turnovers with confusing looks. It is second in the NFL in takeaways. Jones will make mistakes on Sunday.
Even if the game stays competitive, the Vikings have allowed the third-fewest yards to running backs this season and surrendered just three rushing touchdowns. Travis Etienne Jr. will be involved in the Jaguars backfield despite his inefficiencies. There are too many red flags to trust Bigsby this weekend.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN) at Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs have an elite run defense. Javonte Williams crumbles against elite run defenses (well, he's not great against some poor run defenses, either).
Add Rachaad White and Bucky Irving to the list of running backs who struggled against the Chiefs. White had 35 total yards but was saved by a touchdown. Irving totaled 34 yards.
Sean Payton and the Broncos coaching staff are frustrated by Williams. He often publicly threatens to increase the touches for a backup running back.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on whether there’s any chance we see more of Audric Estime moving forward:
“I think that’s a good and fair question, and one that I think I would answer ‘yes.’”
Payton has a 50% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak, with a big strike looming… https://t.co/hyhalcwzz9 pic.twitter.com/11Yc3RloC4
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 4, 2024
Whether Payton is speaking the truth or not (there were also reports of Estime seeing increased usage against Baltimore but he didn't carry the ball until midway through the fourth quarter), Williams is one to avoid this week. The matchup won't do him any favors. Losing more work would be the cherry on top of a Sunday bust.
Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL) vs. Philadelphia
How much can you trust Cooper Rush? The Cowboys offense was already a letdown. Now, they move from Dak Prescott (hamstring) to the career backup.
The entire offense is downgraded, plus the Cowboys host a red-hot Philadelphia defense. Since their bye week, the Eagles have fully embraced first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system. Their success begins with stopping the run. Tyrone Tracy Jr., Chase Brown, Travis Etienne Jr., and Tank Bigsby failed to reach 33 rushing yards.
The Eagles are the only team in the NFL to rank in the top 6 in offense and defense
The Eagles are giving up the fewest points in the NFL during this 4 game winning streak (11 points/game) and they have the most sacks (16) pic.twitter.com/4EK2E2tJ5L
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) November 5, 2024
Brown is one of two running backs to score against the Eagles this season. Rico Dowdle has been reliable lately, but likely won't add his name to that list.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) vs. New York Jets
This won't be Marvin Harrison Jr.'s first bust and it won't be his last.
James Conner and the running game is the engine of Arizona's offense. The Cardinals run at the eighth-highest rate in the league. Unsurprisingly, the rookie first-round pick averages just a hair over six targets per game. That's not WR1 volume. That's not even WR2 volume.
Fortunately for disappointed MHJ fantasy managers, he's had boom games. Most of those came when he exceeded his target average.
| Game | Targets | Yards | TDs |
| Week 2 | 8 | 130 | 2 |
| Week 3 | 11 | 64 | 1 |
| Week 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Week 8 | 7 | 111 | 1 |
Fantasy managers shouldn't project increased target volume for Harrison this week. Opposing teams throw on the Jets 28.3 times per game. That's the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. Harrison also lines up outside 80% of the time. New York's outside cornerbacks are the strength of its defense.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, KC) vs. Denver
This is the riskiest pick of the column this week, especially with DeAndre Hopkins logging an eight-catch, 86-yard, two-touchdown spectacular just days ago. The Kansas City Chiefs utilize Hopkins like the now-injured Rashee Rice and JuJu Smith-Schuster. That includes a healthy number of slot snaps.
Will Pat Surtain II shadow Hopkins? The Broncos played a lot of zone defense last week to try and prevent Lamar Jackson from running. Therefore, Surtain did not shadow Zay Flowers, and the Broncos got burned. Expect Denver to return to a league-high man coverage rate.
pat surtain is playing the highest rate of single coverage in the league while allowing only 116 yards on 267 coverage snaps (0.43 yards allowed per coverage snap)
that's defensive player of the year material right there https://t.co/MBN8TNVPy2
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) November 6, 2024
Surtain has frustrated Mike Evans (two for 17), DK Metcalf (three for 29), George Pickens (two for 29), and Garrett Wilson (five for 41) this season. Hopkins isn't a sit but should be considered more of a flex with a low-floor potential.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) at Kansas City
Following his zero-catch, zero-point dud on Thursday Night Football against the Saints, Courtland Sutton has rebounded with two straight 100-receiving yard games (I had to clarify receiving yards because he's completed a pass in both games as well).
The Panthers and Ravens allowed Sutton to get open. Baltimore is the worst defense against fantasy football wide receivers. Carolina is all-around dreadful.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, surrender the fewest yards to receivers. Sutton has a lengthy history of mediocre performances against Kansas City. He averages fewer than 50 yards per game and has scored twice in nine games.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) vs. New York Jets
Was Kyler Murray included on this week's bust list so we can see Trey McBride wide-open in the end zone again?
Trey McBride should have had his first touchdown catch of the season on Sunday pic.twitter.com/uhUinBKDdg
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 4, 2024
The play highlights the problems plaguing Murray's fantasy production. As stated above, the Cardinals prefer to lean on the running game. Murray's rushing is not part of that. Since Week 4, he's topped 20 rushing yards twice. He had a 50- and 44-yard rush in those two games to boost his average.
Murray is averaging 28 pass attempts and under 200 passing yards per game. There are limited opportunities to add to his fantasy total. Missing on plays like the easy touchdown to McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr. streaking down the field turns him from a stud to a bust.
The best way to beat the Jets defense is to pound the rock. How convenient! The Cardinals love to do that! Expect another heavy dosage of Conner, and Murray to fall short of projections.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) vs. Denver
For the first time this season, Patrick Mahomes was a QB1 for fantasy football. His 24.5 fantasy points against the Buccaneers was the first time he's topped 20 points this season. His previous personal best was 19.2 points the week prior in Las Vegas. The Raiders allow the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Tampa Bay ranks second.
That's how fantasy managers navigate streaming the position. Find and exploit the matchups to find fantasy success. Don't let Mahomes' name and recent success take away that he should be in the streaming category. It's just not possible because he's rostered everywhere. The Chiefs win with the running game and defense first.
"Run it...give him the ball."
@PatrickMahomes knew exactly how he wanted to close it out 💪 pic.twitter.com/T4n317OhEw— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 5, 2024
Mahomes won't have the same matchup advantage in Week 10. Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback who had fantasy football success against the Denver Broncos. Sportsbooks expect a low-scoring divisional affair (41.5 over/under, third lowest this week).
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL) vs. Philadelphia
Once again, I ask, how much can you trust Cooper Rush? Jake Ferguson's production is even more of a concern than Rico Dowdle's.
With CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) banged up and Brandin Cooks (knee) not cleared to practice, Dallas' tight end could be the de facto top receiver against the Eagles. That may or may not be a good thing.
The Cowboys have struggled to move the football against poor defenses. It's hard to imagine that changing against one of the league's hottest defenses and a backup quarterback, especially if Lamb is on the sideline.
Ferguson has been reliable but not explosive in 2024. He averages 10.2 PPR fantasy points (TE10) but maxes out at 15.5 points. A lack of touchdowns is to blame for Ferguson's steady hand. He hasn't found paydirt in seven games. The Eagles are one of three teams to keep opposing tight ends out of the end zone.
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