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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a matchup between a pair of banged-up teams in this one, as Baker Mayfield and the shorthanded Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) head up to Kansas City to take on the final remaining undefeated team in the league in the Chiefs (7-0). Both teams are missing key offensive pieces, and let's see how that affects our lineups in this showdown.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on November 4. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs - $13.2K (DK), $16.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 48 targets, 38 receptions, 335 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. TE: 31.9%
I'll start this slate off with Travis Kelce. Kelce has seemingly started to find his stride over the past few weeks. Kelce has seen at least nine targets, had at least seven receptions, and at least 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games since Week 5. He finally found the end zone last week, and I'm betting he'll do the same tonight.
Travis Kelce's first TD of year? On #NationalTightEndsDay!
📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uOQ8BVlAiK— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
My model projects Kelce to catch exactly seven of his 9.02 targets for 84.52 yards and 0.69 touchdowns. He draws a strong matchup against the Buccaneers defense that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA against tight ends, who also rank 30th in receiving yards per game and 26th in receiving touchdowns per game against the position.
Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs - $15K (DK), $15.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 1,651 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, 34 rushing attempts, 139 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 19.03%
Given the way the first half of Patrick Mahomes's season has gone, I was hoping to get a "buy low" opportunity for the three-time Super Bowl MVP. Nevertheless, given the matchup he draws in this one, it's worth taking a chance here. While the Buccaneers rank 19th in defensive DVOA against the pass, they rank in the bottom five in passing completions (29th), passing attempts (29th), passing yards (29th), and passing touchdowns (27th).
My model projects Mahomes to complete 29.14 of 39.81 passing attempts for 311.39 yards and 2.26 passing touchdowns. An underrated part of this pick is his ability to run the ball against this Bucs defense that ranks 28th in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards, and 31st in rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks. My model projects him to run the ball 5.2 times for 24.32 yards and 0.13 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Kareem Hunt, Cade Otton, Xavier Worthy
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DFS Flex Plays
Rachaad White - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $7.4K (DK), $13.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 67 rushing attempts, 256 rushing yards, 31 targets, 28 receptions, 236 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -21.14%
I'll flip the field and look at a pair of Buccaneers in my flex spots, starting with Rachaad White. White has been solid from a fantasy perspective but has seen his volume chipped into by rookie Bucky Irving. The two are interchangeable from a fantasy point of view, though neither necessarily have a positive matchup against this second-ranked Chiefs rushing defense.
I favor White in this game because of his ability to work in the passing game. The Chiefs are due to regress in that department tonight. With the Chiefs' ability to generate pressure and the lack of receiving options remaining for Tampa Bay, White could see some real volume in the short and intermediate parts of the field.
My model projects him to run the ball just 7.2 times for 21.26 yards but projects White to catch 4.31 of 5.4 targets for 32.55 yards. He projects to 0.22 touchdowns, which caps his ceiling ability and is the reason I'll stay away from him in the 1.5x spot.
Cade Otton - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $8.4K (DK), $12.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 51 targets, 36 receptions, 344 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -0.4%
I'll look at arguably the top option in the passing game for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers tonight. Cade Otton has been on a tear over the last two weeks, catching 17 of 20 targets for 181 yards and two touchdowns. Following the loss of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton has stepped up in an increased role and we'll look to benefit from that again against a strong Chiefs defense.
My model projects Otton to catch 5.1 of 7.25 targets for 56.63 yards and 0.44 touchdowns. Despite the Chiefs' solid ranking in terms of DVOA against tight ends (14th), it's worth noting that they rank dead last in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to the position.
Other Flex Options: Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Baker Mayfield, DeAndre Hopkins
DFS Value Plays
Samaje Perine - RB, Kansas City Chiefs - $4.4K (DK), $13.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 13 rushing attempts, 45 rushing yards, 12 targets, nine receptions, 104 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -4.14%
I'll start my value plays with the Chiefs' number two running back, Samaje Perine. Given that Perine has just one fewer target than he does rushing attempts, he's more like a receiver who happens to line up in the backfield than a true running back. Fortunately, that's exactly why I'll be rostering him in my showdown lineups.
Tampa Bay has been strong against the run, but running backs have been able to take advantage of them in the passing game. The Bucs rank 29th in targets, 30th in receptions, 31st in receiving yards, and 28th in receiving touchdowns allowed against the position. My model projects Perine to run the ball just 2.41 times for 10.97 yards but does project 3.71 receptions on 4.01 targets for 21.03 yards.
Justin Watson - WR, Kansas City Chiefs - $3.2K (DK), $7.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 12 targets, 10 receptions, 128 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs Other WR: -7.5%
I'll wrap things up with Justin Watson, who has been delegated to the pseudo-number-three receiver following the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. While Hopkins sees an increased role in the passing game tonight, Watson remains a sneaky value option.
My model projects Watson to catch 2.92 of 4.22 targets for 31.03 yards and 0.17 touchdowns. There's a strong chance this game is a gritty, run-heavy game from the Chiefs offense. However, given their positive matchup in the passing game I have a feeling Andy Reid will get creative here and draw some stuff up to get all of his pass-catchers involved.
Other Value Plays: Trey Palmer, Sterling Shepherd, Harrison Butker
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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