RADIO
Where did this season go? We are in November already! This is the lightest week of the entire season with only 39 games involving FCS teams on Saturday. We still have some good ones to pick. It's the week of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. That has to count for something!
I finished a disappointing 21-36 last week and bombed my middle picks to lose the most points of any week this season. Let's try and do better this week. I'm still above water. I am 232-229 picking every game this year. Let's keep it going!
These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bet more than you can afford. This is supposed to be for fun and excitement.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 10 (11/2/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(4) Ohio State (-3.5) at (3) Penn State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Drew Allar does not appear to be limited.
Looks pretty comfortable throwing and doing a fair bit with the footwork pic.twitter.com/Xewj6JE845
— Lyle Alenstein (@LAlenstein) October 30, 2024
The status of Drew Allar is "uncertain," but that video looks pretty certain to me. He'll likely start and take most of the snaps, but I would be very surprised if Penn State didn't use Beau Pribula in some capacity. Does that mean that Penn State finally gets over the hump?
This is Penn State's best chance to exorcise that demon, but we've been here before. Everyone loves James Franklin until he loses another big game.
Ryan Day hasn’t beaten a Top 5 opponent since September 3rd, 2022.
He’s lost 4 straight.
James Franklin hasn’t beaten a Top 5 opponent since October 22nd, 2016.
He’s lost 10 straight.
They face off this weekend in a Top 5 matchup.
Who ends their losing streak? pic.twitter.com/FKW3oH79kV
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) October 29, 2024
Even Ohio State fans give Ryan Day a pass because of the Michigan cheating scandal that has mostly been ignored by the NCAA. Something has to give here. If it is Penn State again, I don't see it losing by more than a touchdown at home. Give me Penn State.
Duke at (5) Miami (FL) (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Everyone saw what we did last week. Duke forced six turnovers and still lost. That offense is a total disaster. Give me Miami.
(19) Mississippi (-7.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Taylen Green's monster game against the other Mississippi school was an outlier. Can he do it against a defense like this? The Ole Miss offense hasn't exactly been world-beaters, either. Give me Arkansas at home. I might not take the Piggies outright, but they are going to hang around and I wouldn't be shocked if they won.
Air Force at (21) Army (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Navy covered by more than this. Army should as well.
Minnesota (-2.5) at (24) Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vegas knows what's up. Buy Max Brosmer stock. He's elevating the Gophers right now. Give me Minnesota.
I’ve been following Max Brosmer for 3+ years now, and it’s awesome to see him showcase his poise, quick release, and arm talent now that he’s settled at @GopherFootball.
His play vs. Maryland showcased how smart, efficient, and accurate he can be at the helm of the offense.… https://t.co/1c5MMe95Qu pic.twitter.com/EJpjerKomj
— Eric Galko (@EricGalko) October 29, 2024
Northwestern at Purdue (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well ... I was not expecting this. That said, Ryan Browne makes Purdue better and he's better than his counterpart. Give me the Boilermakers.
Stanford at North Carolina State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Unfortunately, this is down to -9.5 in one spot, so I take it there. I liked -10.5 better, but this still feels too high. Stanford isn't winning games (yet), but it is managing to hang around. I'll take the Cardinal.
Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A team that is forcing turnovers lately against a quarterback who threw five interceptions -- including three that were returned for touchdowns -- last week. What could go wrong? Give me the Hokies.
Buffalo (-1.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust anything about this line. Give me Buffalo, I guess.
Toledo (-9.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not playing this game. Toledo is the better team, but it has flopped in great situations more than once this year. I'll take the Rockets, but I'm leaving this one alone.
Memphis (-7.5) at UTSA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Roadrunners just blew a 25-point second-half lead to Tulsa, of all teams. Memphis lights them up!
Vanderbilt at Auburn (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jarquez Hunter's monster game against Kentucky did a good job of masking the shortcomings of Auburn for a week. It'll show back up here. Give me Vandy.
Old Dominion (-2.5) at Appalachian State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Whoever wins, I'm not losing. I'm staying far away from this one. Give me ODU.
Tulsa at UAB (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UTSA made Tulsa look good for a week. The buck stops here. UAB rolls!
(1) Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Sure, I'm game. Duck U!
Fun fact:
Oregon has been holding their FBS opponents on average to just greater than 12 points under their season scoring average
Michigan heads into this game averaging 21.5 points a game
Would be surprised to see the defense give up more than 10 points this weekend. pic.twitter.com/DcZs0tOTci
— Duck Sports Authority (@DSArivals) October 29, 2024
Florida vs. (2) Georgia (-14.5) in Jacksonville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The talent discrepancy is very noticeable, but Florida's youth movement getting a couple of games to get acclimated before the Cocktail Party is going to be huge. Give me Florida. I think it hangs around. Florida won't win, but it should make this interesting for a while.
Texas Tech at (11) Iowa State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know that I love the way that Iowa State plays, but this feels high. I'll take Tech. Iowa State still wins, but this feels like too many.
(13) Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
NEWS: Indiana HC Curt Cignetti announced quarterback Kurtis Rourke will start against Michigan State on Saturday.https://t.co/liXnlaQC0v pic.twitter.com/vaEAGJURgT
— On3 (@On3sports) October 31, 2024
Kurtis Rourke is back. Indiana rolls!
(17) Kansas State (-12.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Houston's not fooling me. Last week was a fluke. Give me Willie.
UCLA at Nebraska (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nebraska played its best game of the season against Ohio State and UCLA has improved a lot since Week 1. If these teams had played in September, Nebraska would have smoked it. Now, it might be a touch too high. I don't trust this. Give me UCLA.
North Carolina (-2.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Has there ever been a bigger meeting of underachievers? UNC is at least showing signs of life. Florida State is lost. Tar Heels by 90! Okay ... maybe not 90, but it could be around a third of that.
Arizona at Central Florida (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't trust either team. Give me UCF, I guess. Arizona has done me dirty too many times.
Middle Tennessee State at UTEP (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Really? Give me MTSU.
Louisiana-Monroe at Marshall (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nope. This is too many. Give me Monroe.
Wyoming at New Mexico (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that hook, but I like the Cowboys even less. Give me the Lobos.
Coastal Carolina (-3.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Everyone else is doing it, why can't CCU? Give me the Chanticleers.
Navy (-10.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Navy gets right in this one. It's going to be a big day for Blake Horvath.
Massachusetts at Mississippi State (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michael Van Buren Jr. becomes a star here. Give me the Bulldogs.
Arizona State (-3.5) at Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not buying this one. The Pokes are still a better team and are at home. Cowboys straight up.
Hawaii at Fresno State (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Hawaii is straight trash on the mainland. Fresno rolls!
(10) Texas A&M (-3.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Some see this as a trap game. I don't. This is a different team with Marcel Reed at quarterback. Aggies by at least a touchdown!
Louisville at (11) Clemson (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is Clemson's last chance to prove anything before the ACC Championship. It'll show up here. Give me the Tigers.
Wisconsin at Iowa (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the half, but I trust the Iowa defense and it's in Iowa City. I'll take the Hawkeyes in the first official game of the Brendan Sullivan era.
Brendan Sullivan listed as Iowa’s starting QB for Week 10 pic.twitter.com/qaArwLWCMz
— Iowa Chill (@IowaChill) October 29, 2024
USC (-2.5) at Washington
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, remember when this was supposed to be a game? The good old days of September. Give me USC.
Georgia Southern at South Alabama (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Jags in Mobile. It's a thing. Give me USA.
Kentucky at (7) Tennessee (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The most Mark Stoops thing ever would be to save his job yet again by beating a team that he shouldn't. Give me Kentucky just in case. This feels like too many anyway.
(18) Pittsburgh at (20) SMU (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Pitt just forced five interceptions from Kyle McCord. SMU just turned it over six times and won. These teams are nowhere close to the same. Pitt wins outright!
TCU at Baylor (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Utah has the Holy War. Texas has the Revivalry.
Listen.. The Revivalry is the true name of the TCU vs Baylor game.
No matter who comes out with the W.. can we both agree that the winner burns, destroys, or loses this thing? pic.twitter.com/e1Ex1dtaLw
— CFB MZ ? (@CFB_Memezone) October 29, 2024
Give me Baylor and one of the best rivalry names out there.
Colorado State (-2.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Pack just lost outright to Hawaii. Give me the Rams.
This week, I'm to mid. 19 of the 49 total bets are for three points. I didn't mean to go nuts this week, but it turns out that I like a lot of the bets. I have eight four-point bets and five max bets. The 13 two-point bets are by far the fewest of the season. I only have two minimum bets. I'm either bankrupting Vegas or it is taking a house payment. It's that kind of week!
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