RADIO
Welcome to Week 9, the midway point of the 2024 fantasy football season. It's arrived quickly for most, but there's still plenty of season left!
Injuries to wide receivers have left a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy managers, therefore propping up running backs. However, some running backs may have a rough week while wide receiver matchups aren't too bad.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Josh Jacobs (RB, GB) vs. Detroit
Josh Jacobs' fantasy outlook hinges on Jordan Love's health. A hampered or absent Love will downgrade the wide receivers and Tucker Kraft. It would also put the offensive onus onto Jacobs.
That's not to say Jacobs can't handle the responsibility. He ran for 151 yards (on 32 carries) in Malik Willis' first start in Week 2 against the Colts. The results weren't as fruitful the following week against a good Tennessee defense (14 for 43), and stopping the run is the weak part of the Titans' unit. That's the strong suit for the Lions, who allow the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.
Jordan Love said his groin is definitely feeling better.
How realistic is it to play Sunday against the Lions?
“I think it’s realistic.” pic.twitter.com/Ro2OQu9OpU
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) October 30, 2024
Love says he'll play on Sunday. Whether he's active or not, the Lions' defensive focus should be on the run game. Force a not-100% Love or Willis to beat you through the air.
Jacobs isn't a sit but there's enough reason to be worried about the running room on Sunday.
Tank Bigsby (RB, JAX) at Philadelphia
Vic Fangio's defenses are notorious for starting slow, especially when he's in a new city. The longtime defensive coordinator has a complicated system, but the Eagles look to have picked it up.
Over the last four weeks, the Eagles have been elite in the metrics we care about. They allow the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, third-fewest to running backs, fewest to wide receivers, and fifth-fewest to tight ends. The Giants and Browns were opponents in that stretch. But even the startable assets on those teams (Malik Nabers, David Njoku, and Tyrone Tracy Jr.) were not good. Chase Brown and Zack Moss averaged under three yards per carry last week.
Tank Bigsby stayed relevant last week because the Jaguars were competitive. We've seen the coaches take Bigsby out of the lineup when attempting to play catch-up. And that wasn't for Travis Etienne Jr. D'Ernest Johnson outsnapped Bigsby in the blowout by the Bears.
#Jaguars coach Doug Pederson tells reporters that he "feels good" that RB Travis Etienne Jr., dealing with a hamstring injury, will be back this week.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 30, 2024
With Etienne trending toward returning to the lineup, Bigsby's initial touches take a hit. Plus, if the Eagles jump out to a big lead, Bigsby likely won't be in the backfield often. The Eagles are 7.5-point home favorites and it's uncertain how the leaky Jacksonville defense stops Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith.
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving (RB, TB) at Kansas City
Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and J.K. Dobbins logged their lowest YPC against the Chiefs. Alvin Kamara had a worse game against Denver but averaged just 2.36 yards per attempt in Arrowhead. Alexander Mattison ran the football 14 times. He finished with 15 yards. This is the stingiest run defense in football by a significant margin.
#Chiefs goal line stand. This is team run defense. Herring, Wharton, Pennel and Bolton create a pile and congestion on the pulls. Tranquill takes advantage of the mismatch of a WR blocking and knifes in to blow it up. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/CoGpXtl4bl
— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) October 31, 2024
Those running backs listed above take a majority of the touches in their respective backfields. That's not the case for Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, who have 27 and 28 touches, respectively, in the last two weeks. Sean Tucker also gets involved on a smaller scale.
So running the football against the Chiefs will be difficult, but what about receiving? White caught five balls and a touchdown against Atlanta. Irving tallied a career-high seven passes. It's an integral part of the Tampa Bay offense, especially with Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring) out of the lineup.
Well, the Chiefs are in the top 10 for the fewest receptions and yards to the running back position. They've also yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back. It's also worth noting Irving is playing through a toe injury.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN) at Baltimore
Javonte Williams went from a bust of a draft pick to a running back we can start in favorable matchups (111 total yards against both Las Vegas and New Orleans). Then, he delivered a dud against Carolina, the worst run defense in the NFL.
Frustration will continue into Week 9 because Williams hasn't delivered in difficult matchups yet this season (36 total yards against the Chargers, 11 carries for 17 yards versus the Steelers). He has another one on deck in Baltimore.
The Ravens allow 3.3 yards per carry this season and are vulnerable against the pass. With Bo Nix playing well, the Broncos won't need to rely on the running game to stay competitive.
The one hope for Williams is that the Ravens allow the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this year. He's sure to secure at least a few receptions, but there's a low ceiling in play here. In the aforementioned Pittsburgh game, he caught five passes for 48 yards and still barely cracked double-digit fantasy points.
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Nick Chubb picked a rough stretch to return to play. Sure, his first matchup against Cincinnati was soft, but it was his first game back from a major injury. He wasn't going to exceed expectations in that game.
Then, he drew the Baltimore Ravens, a unit that (as stated above) allows the fewest yards per carry in the league. The Chargers are next on the schedule. Zero running backs have scored a rushing touchdown against Los Angeles. It has surrendered the fifth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. It is beatable on passes out of the backfield, but that's not Chubb's game.
The revival of the Browns offense under Jameis Winston was the best story of Week 8. The Chargers now have film on the new Cleveland offense and are a better overall defense than Baltimore. Chubb will need a touchdown to be worthy of a fantasy football start.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC) at Cleveland
Is J.K. Dobbins slowly becoming a touchdown-or-bust running back? After starting the season with back-to-back 100-yard efforts, Dobbins has rushed for under 60 yards in four of his last five games. He hasn't averaged four yards per carry since Week 2.
The volume is still fantastic, but this week's matchup is not. The Browns allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Knowing Cleveland's early season struggles on offense caused it to fall behind, the stats are even more eye-opening. A lot of the production is from rushing touchdowns. The Browns have allowed seven to the position.
Jim Harbaugh is altering his game plans and letting Justin Herbert (the proven franchise quarterback) pass more often. He has at least 32 attempts in his last three games and none in his first four.
Justin Herbert is so good he turned Harbaugh and Roman pass-leaning. pic.twitter.com/gqhEB5PwKJ
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 29, 2024
Fantasy managers may be betting on a short touchdown plunge for Dobbins to avoid a bust.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) vs. Denver
Zay Flowers, meet Pat Surtain II.
The Denver Broncos star cornerback has been a problem for some of the league's greats. DK Metcalf (three catches for 29 yards), George Pickens (two for 29), Mike Evans (two for 17), and Garrett Wilson (five for 41) have struggled against Surtain and the Denver secondary.
Pat Surtain INT on 4th down! 🐴
📺: #CARvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/YztKfcA0oX— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
The Broncos give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Flowers lines up outside (a.k.a. Surtain territory if he doesn't shadow) more often than not.
Baltimore also acquired Diontae Johnson from the Panthers this week. While Flowers should still be Lamar Jackson's top target, the Ravens need to integrate their new weapon into the offense. His presence downgrades the rest of the pass-catchers this week and probably even more as the season progresses.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE) at Tennessee
Hunter Henry has one good game with Jacoby Brissett (eight catches for 109 yards in Week 2). That's in five Brissett starts this season.
Drake Maye found Henry on one of his three completions against the Jets before a concussion sidelined him. Henry logged four catches for 34 yards the rest of the way. His ceiling (and the New England offense as a whole) is capped with the veteran under center.
The Drake Maye to Hunter Henry connection is a very real thing. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/P1ShOKCIiE
— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) October 27, 2024
Tennessee gives up the fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season. The defense has slipped a bit with L'Jarius Sneed out of the lineup, but it's difficult to trust anyone in the lowest over/under line of the week (38). The next lowest line is 42.5.
If Maye clears concussion protocol, Henry will move up slightly in the rankings, but he's still outside the top 12.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN) vs. Indianapolis
About nine months ago, T.J. Hockenson underwent surgery on his knee to repair a torn ACL and MCL. He's expected to debut this season on Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts.
#Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell says TE T.J. Hockenson WILL NOT be on a snap count on Sunday against the @Colts.
O'Connell said he's healthy and ready to go. pic.twitter.com/H1YFfKjdwI
— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) October 30, 2024
The Vikings tight end said he's physically up to par (if not better) than last year. It's hard to believe he won't be brought on slowly despite coaches stating there won't be a snap count.
Hockenson was enjoying a career year when his season came to a close. This isn't the same offense he left. Sam Darnold doesn't have a history of leaning on tight ends (like Kirk Cousins) and Aaron Jones is the engine of the Minnesota offensive attack. The Vikings average the NFL's fewest pass attempts per game.
The Vikings lost star left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending knee injury just before halftime against the Rams. The offense sputtered without the blindside blocker on the field. The team traded for Cam Robinson to fill the void. Darnold's been great with a clean pocket. When he's pressured, it gets ugly. Hockenson may be tasked with chipping pass-rushers more often.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) at Buffalo
Tua Tagovailoa brought the Miami offense back from despair, but he didn't have a good fantasy game. His 14.7 fantasy points were good for the QB22. Now, he draws a matchup he's historically struggled with.
In eight career games against the Bills, Tagovailoa averages under 200 passing yards, has 10 interceptions versus seven touchdowns, and owns a 1-7 record. In Week 2 (at home), Tagovailoa recorded 145 yards and three interceptions deep into the third quarter before the concussion took him out of the game.
Christian Benford intercepts Tua Tagovailoa pic.twitter.com/ztVDnPsKYb
— PFF (@PFF) September 13, 2024
Buffalo's not just good against Tagovailoa this season. The unit gives up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is the only opposing signal-caller to finish inside the top 12 against the Bills.
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