RADIO
We're almost halfway through the season, and your chances of finding rookie league-winners are thinning. As more first-year players break out and solidify their status as contributors or stars, it becomes more important to make moves for them.
There are still a handful of freshman players who are worth targeting and could make a difference in your league. Even one or two extra wins from good performances could make them worth picking up.
So let's break down some of the most important new blood in the league, what's happened with them so far, and what you should do if you want to find league-winners!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Forget About it: Brian Thomas Jr.
We really hope you read Week 4's edition of this column. It predicted Thomas' breakout game to be in Week 5. It happened! Also, Thomas is basically this year's Puka Nacua (a rookie wide receiver who smashes expectations and was either undrafted or drafted late in most fantasy drafts, and becomes his team's WR1). So yeah, you aren't getting him cheap any more.
If you didn’t already know by now, Brian Thomas Jr. is a must start WR each week. pic.twitter.com/c9YwVRq3OQ
— Jesse Moeller (@JMoeller05) October 20, 2024
Nacua scored quite a few more PPR fantasy points through seven weeks of his rookie season than BTJR (144.6 to 108.8) but the gap is much closer in standard. The Ram's superstar may have set an unattainable bar, but the Jags rookie is the closest you will get, and there's a chance his role expands. He deserves the ball even more.
Brian Thomas Jr. was WIDE OPEN on legitimately every target against Houston
There’s been a lot of missed throws but he’s still on pace for 1,169 yards as a rookie
Jags got themselves a DAWG pic.twitter.com/EMeVWzlyuy
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) October 1, 2024
No. 7 already looks like a league winner, and there's a lot of room to grow.
Last Chance (Almost): Jonathon Brooks
Carolina Panthers running back Jonathon Brooks is still within his 21-day practice window. It looks like he'll be activated ahead of Week 9. Many in the fantasy football space think current lead running back Chuba Hubbard is playing so well that Brooks won't get a chance. That's not necessarily true.
6 carries for Chuba Hubbard?
For a HC who wanted to be stubborn with the run - what are we doing?
He’s averaging 10.7 yards a carry 🥴
Canales abandoned it way too early. pic.twitter.com/hQZONFpfZD
— Panthers On Tap (@PanthersOnTap) October 6, 2024
The hype surrounding Hubbard is massive. That's a GOOD THING if you want to trade for the rookie. Hubbard hasn't been forcing many missed tackles this season (he ranks 4th worst among the 42 running backs with the most volume this season) and only gains 2.44 yards after contact per attempt.
Those are not great numbers. When those advanced stats are bad but the player is still putting up great numbers, it usually means two things -- his role in the offense is massive, and he has an elite run-blocking offensive line. Brooks will benefit from that line, and he has multiple rounds higher of draft capital.
If you have a winning team, you need to trade for the rookie. He could be a league-winner, especially in PPR formats, through the last few weeks of the season. Carolina is a losing team and head coach Dave Canales will do whatever he can to ensure the offense plays well. Brooks will get his chance to shine, and he's a fantastic running back.
.@MoveTheSticks and @JoelKlatt detail the playmaking that RB Jonathon Brooks brings to the @Panthers. pic.twitter.com/10uDnJkpxF
— NFL (@NFL) May 23, 2024
Hope You Took Our Advice: Drake Maye
We highly recommended adding Drake Maye before Week 6. He's now scored 16.5 and 20.8 fantasy points in his first two starts. He should be a starting quarterback in all leagues with 12 or more teams. He's shown fantastic play with sub-par wide receivers and helped give his offense a huge boost.
Drake Maye on 20+ yard throws over the past two weeks:
90.8 passing grade - 4th among all QBs 🚀 pic.twitter.com/fxDsfGibvA
— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) October 23, 2024
Week 6 of this column tabbed Maye as "Add With Urgency" before he started a single game. He has shown off his wheels in addition to plenty of fantastic throws. What's better is that the Patriots defense has been awful -- this means the rookie will liekly continue to be forced into a pass-heavy game plan.
Drake Maye wiggles through contact and converts on 3rd
— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) October 20, 2024
He was a popular waiver-wire pickup this waiver period. Hopefully you got him for free by following our advice. He's a low-end QB1 with upside for more now.
Buy Low If You Can: Malik Nabers
New York Giants' wide receiver Malik Nabers ever really appeared in this column because he was priced so high in fantasy drafts and almost immediately had a huge impact. He had his first down game last week, and it wasn't really his fault. There were some concerns with the Giants offensive line that turned into nine sacks.
Malik Nabers is going to get some flack for his comments following yesterday's game, saying to "watch the target tape" and that he "was open."
But he isn't wrong. There are a few examples on that target tape.
Blame the OL/QB/HC, whoever you want. He was getting open. pic.twitter.com/UiD2YHNyQV
— Anthony Rivardo (@Anthony_Rivardo) October 21, 2024
It's bad. But Nabers did his job. There may be some fantasy managers willing to move off of him for a more reasonable price. Do what you can to try to get him. If head coach Brian Daboll adjusts his usage to more short routes in an effort to get the ball out of quarterback Daniel Jones' hand quicker, he could go right back to being dynamite.
He's a league-winner that you may have an opportunity to buy. Not much else to it!
Set For Big Opportunity: Jalen McMillan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan has a massive opportunity knocking at his door. The Bucs' top-2 receivers, Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle), picked up major injuries. Evans is expected to miss at least four weeks while Godwin is out for the season.
All-22 of Jalen McMillan's 8 targets against the Baltimore Ravens.
🔥 17.8% Target Share
🔥 31 Routes
🔥 59.6% Route Participation Rate
🔥 100 Air Yards
🔥 12.5 ADOTMcMillan ran 24.2% of of his snaps in the slot. This equated to 3 balls caught for 15 yards. We just missed a… pic.twitter.com/FD4Zn31YB2
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) October 23, 2024
He's still available in 52% of Sleeper leagues, and should be a speculative add considering the explosive nature of Tampa Bay's offense. While it's unclear if he'll earn the coveted slot role that was occupied by Godwin, or at least spend some time in the slot, the offense has been so good that he's an important player to at least stash on the bench.
Jalen McMillan was a continual standout throughout the offseason in Tampa Bay.
He will now have a massive “next man in”opportunity.
Can be a weekly target earner moving forward.
Led UW in receptions in 2022 with 79 (playing alongside Odunze & Polk) pic.twitter.com/Vxrk4jsw9u
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) October 22, 2024
You should at least make space on your bench if he's still available in your league. He was an excellent player in college and he's in a good situation.
Still Not Happening: Ja'Lynn Polk
New England Patriots wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk (concussion) was awful last week, and he's shown little signs of improvement. In fact, he's seemed to regress, and he's not startable or even worth rostering outside of Dynasty leagues.
Drake Maye on Ja’Lynn Polk:
“He’s gonna get there, It’s not a matter of if but a matter of when”
Leader. 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/K9uXODszj6
— Savage (@SavageSports_) October 23, 2024
Week 6 showed us Demario Douglas was the guy. Ignore Week 7 -- he had an illness, so the result should just be thrown out. Polk will need to learn how to catch the ball, something he's struggled with after claiming he had the best hands in the NFL (he does not).
It's good to see that quarterback Drake Maye has faith in the rookie, but fantasy managers shouldn't until he shows that he's fixed his separation and catching issues and consistently delivers fantasy points.
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
This week, your best bets are to take a shot on trading for Nabers, picking up McMillan if he's still available and holding him for a few weeks, and doing whatever you can to get Brooks at a reasonable price.
All those moves should pay off.
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