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Week 7 was a brutal Sunday with injuries and bad performances. Let's quickly move on to Week 8 and forget about Sunday. We'll dive into the data to see where to stack and attack.
This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement during the week, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 28. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 8 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 8, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 8: Main Slate Only
- Lions - 28
- Packers - 27
- Chiefs, Ravens, Texans - 26
- Broncos, Buccaneers - 25.5
- Bills - 24.5
2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Commanders- 31.1
- Lions - 30.3
- Buccaneers - 29.7
- Ravens - 29.5
- Bills - 28.4
2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Chargers - 13.8
- Broncos - 15.1
- Bears - 16.8
- Chiefs - 17.2
- Bills - 19.4
The Detroit Lions' high-power offense comes into Week 8 with the highest implied total, 28 points. The trio of Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown seems to be a wrecking ball. They'll face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday and will most likely bring the ownership with them.
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers come in second with an implied team total of 27 points. Love led the Packers to an impressive win over the Houston Texans in Week 7. Now, he'll be facing the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. The Packers should be a favorite when it comes to stacking but choosing the correct wide receiver to pair with Love may be the difficult decision.
That’s the 45th TD throw from Jordan Love since the start of the 2023 season. No one has more. pic.twitter.com/rvTl2flfcU
— trey wingo (@wingoz) October 20, 2024
Week 8 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the sample size that we have so far for the 2024 season.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- Seattle (1) vs. Buffalo (17)
- Detroit (3) vs. Tennessee (3)
- Atlanta (5) vs. Tampa Bay (29)
- Baltimore (6) vs. Cleveland (11)
- Tampa Bay (7) vs. Atlanta (13)
The first noticeable matchup to note is Tampa Bay's offense versus the Atlanta Falcons' passing defense. The Buccaneers lost both, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, in their Monday Night matchup versus Baltimore. Godwin is most likely out for the season while we're still waiting on the outcome of Evans' hamstring. The Buccaneers could be a stack to avoid.
Seattle continues to lead in the passing game, averaging 270.9 yards per game. Geno Smith could be without DK Metcalf but the offense still has plenty of weapons that could pop off. The Seahawks stack could come in more affordable on Sunday without Metcalf, giving more room to pay up for weapons.
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Baltimore (1) vs. Cleveland (15)
- Philadelphia (2) vs. Cincinatti (21)
- Washington (3) vs. Chicago (11)
- Detroit (4) vs. Tennessee (7)
- Green Bay (5) vs. Jacksonville (6)
There is one matchup to point out that looks difficult on paper but most likely isn't. The Detroit Lions will face off against Tennessee who is currently allowing 105.5 rushing yards per game. The Lions have a two-headed monster with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. It'll be difficult slowing down two good running backs who continue to stay fresh throughout games, splitting the responsibilities.
Saquon Barkley will be continuing his dominance in the Philadelphia Eagles backfield with a favorable matchup against Cincinnati. Barkley rushed for 176 yards on Sunday against his former team, the New York Giants. He finished the day with 187 total yards and will be looking to continue putting up another solid performance on Sunday.
Saquon Barkley on Sunday:
- 176 rushing yards: 2nd most by any player in NFL history in a game against his former team
- 187 total yards: 68 more than the entire Giants team
- Reached 21.93 MPH (@NextGenStats) on this run, the fastest of his career pic.twitter.com/ydIxMbKB9d
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 21, 2024
2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Jacksonville (Love), Tampa Bay (Cousins), Baltimore (Winston/Thompson-Robins), Arizona (Tagovailoa), Carolina (Nix)
RB - Carolina (Williams), New England (Hall), Buffalo (Walker III), Jacksonville (Jacobs), Las Vegas (Hunt)
WR - Baltimore (Jeudy), Detroit (Ridley), Jacksonville (Reed/Doubs), Arizona (Hill), Tampa Bay (London)
TE - Kansas City (Bowers), Indianapolis (Schultz), Cincinnatti (Calcaterra), Jacksonville (Kraft), Baltimore (Njoku)
DEF - LV (KC), MIA (ARI), TEN (DET), NE (NYJ), CAR (DEN)
Another Brock Bowers week? The Las Vegas Raiders will be facing off against the Kansas City Chiefs in what most likely will be a beatdown. That shouldn't slow Bowers down. He's averaging 7 receptions per game and has a 25.1% target share. The Raiders tight end is the safest comfort blanket for Gardner Minshew who will be under center in Week 8 for the Raiders.
A surprising stack that could come in low-owned is the Denver Broncos. Their matchup against the Baltimore Ravens has them popping up in the DvP tool in every category. Now, the Ravens could lay the smackdown on the Broncos so stacking Bo Nix with two pass-catchers could be risky. That is a risk I'm willing to take but with low exposure in multiple-entry contests.
Week 8 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- Keon Coleman ($5.6K vs. $5.6K)
- Brian Thomas Jr. ($6.5K vs. $6.4K)
- Kenneth Walker III ($7.8K vs. $7.8K)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6.4K vs. $6.1K)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8.9K vs. $8.4K)
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- Brock Bowers ($6.1K vs. $7.4K)
- Drake Maye ($5.5K vs. $7.1K)
- Kareem Hunts ($6.3K vs. $8.1K)
- Jayden Reed ($6.7K vs. $8.1K)
- DeVonta Smith ($6.6K vs. $7.3K)
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Smith - Smith-Njigba ($12K, $13.9K)
- Burrow - Higgins ($13.5K, $15.2K)
- Cousins - London ($13.4K, $15K)
- Mayfield - Godwin ($14.3K, $15.7K)
- Williams - Moore ($12.6K, $14K)
- Love - Reed ($13.8K, $17K)
Alright, that's it for Week 8 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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