RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Start in Deep Formats Only
POSITIONAL VALUE: TE2/FLEX
ANALYSIS: There couldn't be a tougher player to predict every week than Likely. He's scored 49 fantasy points in six games this season, but 37 of those points came in two games. The boom/bust nature of his game log makes him a nightmare for standard leagues and the recent resurgence of Mark Andrews has relegated Likely to a deep league player at best.
It's tough to bail entirely on Likely as he's still playing a lot of snaps and running a lot of routes. But his 12-target game from Week 1 is a distant memory as he's earned more than three targets just once since then.
Tonight's game is a good matchup for the Baltimore tight ends as the Bucs rank 29th in DVOA against the position, however, it's anyone's guess as to which Baltimore tight end is going to get targeted by Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are a run-heavy offense, too, so the passing volume isn't there for this offense to sustain multiple pass catchers unless the Ravens get behind and are forced into a more pass-heavy game script.
The #Buccaneers run the MOST zone coverage.#RavensFlock vs. Zone:
🤪Charlie Kolar: 50% TPRR, 9.6 YPRR
👀Justice Hill: 28% TPRR, 2.5 YPRR
✅Zay Flowers: 24% TPRR, 2.14 YPRR
😱Isaiah Likely: 22% TPRR, 2.16 YPRR
🤔Nelson Agholor: 20% TPRR, 2.59 YPRR pic.twitter.com/5uCDt7WxXF— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 21, 2024
The bottom line is that Likely is far too inconsistent to deploy in standard formats. You are only putting him in a lineup tonight if you have no other choices at the TE position or you are desperate for a flex play with a high ceiling, but a very low floor.
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