High-Powered Offenses: Players To Target in Week 8 Lineups Including Tua Tagovailoa, Tyler Lockett, Keon Coleman, Noah Fant, Rashod Bateman, more

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 8 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 7.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses on a weekly basis, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that there are no bye weeks for Week 8, putting every option in play.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

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Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 7 was much lower scoring than the previous two weeks. The Thursday Night Football game was one-sided, which began a trend this week with six matchups won by 14 points or more. Additionally, five squads failed to exceed 10 points. 

The passing attack regressed as just three signal callers threw for 300 yards and only three tossed three touchdowns. The rushing attack was dominant across the league last week.

• Minnesota Vikings - 29 points scored (9th)
• Green Bay Packers - 24 points scored (12th)
• Houston Texans - 22 points scored (13th)
• Cincinnati Bengals - 21 points scored (14th)
• New England Patriots - 16 points scored (tied for 22nd)

Unfortunately, the lower scoring impacted some of the teams we targeted. We hit one top 10 scoring offense in the Vikings, and the next three were top 15. Our callout on the Patriots didn't quite work out, although quarterback Drake Maye delivered.

After a mere two special teams or defensive touchdowns in Week 6, we had a season-high seven this week, two of which came from the Vikings and Bengals. It's only the second time that's happened. We'll look to rebound in Week 8, much like the NFL passing attacks.

Week 8 Offenses to Target

• Detroit Lions
• Buffalo Bills
• Seattle Seahawks
• Baltimore Ravens
• Miami Dolphins

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place them in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams' unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help home in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

The gap between the home and road teams has almost closed completely. It was another strong showing from the away squads such as the Broncos, Lions, Seahawks, Eagles, and Ravens. They all defeated their opponents. Similarly, the Commanders, Steelers, Bills, and Jaguars all won at home. We'll keep eyeing home teams with good offenses.

The "above average" category in the offensive touchdowns and offense yards metrics remains consistent with a slight edge for offensive yards. Both have about a 10-point difference over the "below average" categories and about six points over "average."

As we noted in the introduction, passing and scoring were down this week, which caused a slight decrease in points scored for the "above average" and "below average" categories in offensive plays per game. The "average" category went up by 0.4 points. Still, it's promising that the points scored correlate with more plays run. Hopefully, we see a bounce-back week from the passing attacks in Week 8.

Week 8 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Detroit Lions

The Lions handed the only NFC team with a perfect record their first loss on Sunday, defeating Minnesota 31-28. It was an entertaining, high-scoring contest, but they prevailed a winner. It's reasonable to crown them as the best squad in the NFC, maybe even the NFL. They still have some issues defensively, but their offense is unstoppable.

Detroit has averaged the third-most points at 30.33, leads the league in offensive touchdowns per game at 3.67, and sits second in offensive yards per week at 411.83. Those would all clear the thresholds from the metrics above. Additionally, they're running 64 plays per game, which ranks ninth. Meaning, we get more opportunities for fantasy points.

They'll ride the momentum from their statement win into their home matchup against the Titans. The only risk here is that it gets out of hand early, capping the upside of their offensive weapons. Nevertheless, they should score a ton of points.

The obvious: Amon-Ra St. Brown was the WR1 on the week with his best outing of the season. Jahmyr Gibbs capitalized on David Montgomery sitting out for a drive to get checked for a knee injury. While his ceiling would rise tremendously without Montgomery, it's still fantastic when both are active. Gibbs has also seen more receiving work since their bye week with target shares of 19% in Week 6 and 16% in Week 7.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Sam LaPorta drops into this category after another subpar day. Too many receivers can make plays in this offense, including Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, and Tim Patrick. Unlike Gibbs, LaPorta has had four games this year with a sub-10% target share. Fortunately, Williams is suspended two games for violating the NFL's Performance Enhancing Drug Policy, which should help concentrate the volume.

Player No. 2 - Jared Goff is better at home and the matchup is great because Tennessee is known for their run defense. The only downside is that the touchdowns could come from their rushing attack, but Goff is a top 12 signal-caller.

Offense No. 2 - Buffalo Bills

The first game of the Amari Cooper era was a success. Buffalo started slowly but gave their fans plenty to cheer about as the game progressed. They hammered the aforementioned Titans en route to another easy victory. It's been all or nothing this season with big wins and bad losses.

Despite the inconsistency, they rank fifth in points per game with 28.43, fourth in offensive touchdowns with 3.29, and 18th in offensive yards with 321.

They get a road date with Seattle, whose defense has been questionable, especially against quality opponents. They gave up 42 points to the Lions and 36 to the 49ers. Plus, their offense can keep pace, forcing the Bills to stay aggressive. This one has an over/under of 47, which is in the top five this week.

The obvious: Josh Allen has three dud performances this season, which is unusual. However, when things click, he's a top three quarterback. James Cook took us on a rollercoaster Sunday with a positive start, finding the end zone, before disappearing in the second half. He failed to see a target for the first time all season, but his 70.6% running back rush share was higher than his season-long average.

Cook also conceded 13 snaps to Ray Davis but did out-touch him six to one in the first half. For now, he remains a must-start.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Amari Cooper was eased into the offense, running just 12 routes. It's no surprise given it was debut. It's a positive sign that he was targeted five times, catching four balls for 66 yards and a score. He'll move into the top 24 this week.

Player No. 2 - Dalton Kincaid continues to struggle with limited volume in this spread offense. He hit a season-high in receiving yards with 52, but that might be more of an indictment of his production than anything. That said, he's still among the top 12 tight ends because he has a role in a high-quality offense.

Player No. 3 - While the addition of Cooper is probably bad news for Kincaid, it may benefit Keon Coleman because there's now a true No. 1 receiver. Not only did he take advantage of his opportunities against the Titans, but he had more of them, earning seven targets. He makes splash plays on contested catches, warranting consideration as a flex option.

Offense No. 3 - Seattle Seahawks

The Falcons failed to deliver in what was projected to be a shootout. As a result, the Seahawks cruised to an easy win while relying heavily on their rushing attack. The offense has looked good most weeks except for their losses to the 49ers and Giants.

They're averaging 25.71 points per game (8th), 2.57 offensive touchdowns (12th), and 368.29 yards (8th) on 64.42 plays per game (8th). They're a top-10 offense that we want to target, especially against beatable defenses.

They're the other half of the Buffalo game. The Bills are an above-average defense that is tougher against the pass than the run, which plays into Seattle's strength.

The obvious: Kenneth Walker III gets the juicy matchup we referenced above after another impressive performance. He's also been excellent as a receiver. With DK Metcalf likely to miss Week 8, there aren't any other locks.

UPDATE: As anticipated, Metcalf is expected to miss their Week 8 contest against the Bills. It's a boost for the three pass-catchers below.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Tyler Lockett moves up the depth chart if Metcalf misses. He's been the second-best wideout over the past few weeks. During that stretch, he's racked up 12 receptions for 185 yards and a score, which puts him in contention as a top 36 wide receiver.

Player No. 2 - The other wideout that should see more work is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who started hot but has since flamed out. He's difficult to trust but has a higher ceiling than Lockett as a boom-bust flex option.

Player No. 3 - Noah Fant has progressively carved out a role in the offense. His target share has risen to 12.5% in Week 7 and 14.3% in Week 8. He's definitely on the streaming radar.

Offense No. 4 - Baltimore Ravens

We highlighted the Bengals against the Browns last week knowing that Joe Burrow had never won in Cleveland against them and that their defense still has some talented pieces. Unfortunately, that didn't work out to the extent we hoped. However, we won't be dissuaded from trying again because this time it's the Ravens who travel there this week.

Baltimore crushed the Buccaneers for three and a half quarters before allowing multiple touchdowns late in the game. They've been demolishing teams since inexplicably losing to the Raiders in Week 2. They're leading the league in points per game with 31.14 points per game and offensive yards with 461.43 per week. They're also second in offensive touchdowns with 3.57.

The obvious: Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are a nightmare for defensive coordinators. They lead the NFL in several categories at their respective positions, including touchdowns. Anyone with either of these two in their lineup is living the dream.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Mark Andrews had a throwback performance on Monday with two trips to the end zone. He only had four targets, so the usage remains an issue, but at least there's some upside. He's among the top 12 tight ends.

Player No. 2 - Zay Flowers or Rashod Bateman. It's tough to envision both these receivers hitting, but one can certainly succeed. Flowers has yet to practice, so we'll need to monitor his ankle injury. If he suits up, then he's the preferred option. However, if he's out or seems limited, then taking the shot on Bateman is worthwhile.

UPDATE: After missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, Flowers returned to practice on Friday and is now expected to suit up. It lowers the appeal for Bateman, who drops to a risky flex with Flowers active.

Offense No. 5 - Miami Dolphins

It's been a long road for Dolphins fans and fantasy managers alike. Tua Tagovailoa suffered a scary concussion in Week 2 against the Bills, sidelining him indefinitely. Fortunately for him, the team, and us fantasy folks, he has been activated from Injured Reserve and is on track to suit up in Week 8. It's great news, particularly when so many other players are hurt.

Utilizing their seven weeks of data is unfair because they relied on players like Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle at quarterback. We'll use their Week 1 data against the Jaguars where they scored 20 points and two offensive touchdowns while generating 400 yards of offense on 65 plays. That was also before Jacksonville collapsed. The one takeaway we can use is their play rate of 65.5 plays per week.

We know what this offense is capable of when firing on all cylinders, so as long as Tagovailoa is back, it's full steam ahead. Furthermore, hosting the Cardinals is a friendly matchup to kick things off.

The obvious: As usual, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane are all locked in because we know that any of them can win you your week.

UPDATE: Hill was a surprise DNP on Friday, but is expected to suit up on Sunday, which is important for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. Even at less than one-hundred percent, he's a top-12 wideout.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Tua Tagovailoa tends to be a matchup-based streaming quarterback with tremendous upside. Arizona is the fifth-best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks and allows the most passing yards per attempt at 7.9. While the concussion risk will always be there, he's in the mix this week.

Player No. 2 - Raheem Mostert has averaged over four yards per carry since returning from injury despite the terrible offensive environment. Based on Week 1 usage, Mostert is playing second fiddle to Achane, but he's a potential flex option with a nose for the end zone.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 8. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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