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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an interesting matchup between AFC contenders as the new-look New York Jets (2-4) head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (4-2). Things have been shaken up quite a bit before this matchup as it will be Russell Wilson under center for the Steelers in this one, while newly acquired Davante Adams will suit up and make his debut for the Jets. Let's see how this one shakes out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Garrett Wilson - WR, $13,800 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 66 targets, 41 receptions, 399 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -33.4%
I'll lead things off on this slate with Jets receiver Garrett Wilson. A report came out Saturday evening that teams were inquiring about Wilson's availability following New York's acquisition of Davante Adams. I can't imagine that the Jets are willing to move Wilson, and frankly, I believe that adding Adams will help Wilson from a production standpoint.
From a matchup standpoint, having Adams on the field could open up Wilson all over the field. For tonight, my model projects Wilson to catch 5.69 of his 7.88 targets for 63.69 yards and 0.42 touchdowns.
Najee Harris - RB, $13,500 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 96 rushing attempts, 376 rushing yards, 19 targets, 14 receptions, 135 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -2.59%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Steelers running back Najee Harris next. Harris has, by far, the best matchup in the Steelers' offense tonight. The Jets struggle against the run game, ranking 25th in defensive rushing DVOA. Not only that, but the Jets tend to struggle the most in the power run game, which aligns nicely with Harris's running style.
Tonight, my model projects Harris to run for 57.56 yards on just about 14 attempts, adding 2.34 receptions and 14.99 receiving yards. He projects to just 0.31 touchdowns, but I think he's finding the end zone in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: Davante Adams, George Pickens, Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
George Pickens - WR, $8,400 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 44 targets, 26 receptions, 363 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -5.4%
There's a lot of controversy surrounding the Pittsburgh quarterback situation, with Mike Tomlin deciding to start Russell Wilson over Justin Fields despite the latter going 4-2 in his first six starts with the team.
It's a decision that doesn't necessarily make sense to me, but I think it's a perfect opportunity to potentially take advantage of a prime positive regression spot from George Pickens. My model projects Pickens to haul in 5.84 of his 8.18 targets for 77.71 yards and 0.31 touchdowns.
Davante Adams - WR, $10,000 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 27 targets, 18 receptions, 209 receiving yards, one touchdown
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 11.7%
I went back and forth on whether I would write up Davante Adams or not for this slate, and it appears I've made my decision. Adams hasn't suited up since Week 3 for Las Vegas, but now, like Pickens, he's in a potential breakout spot.
Despite the Jets' struggles in the passing game this season, Adams is undoubtedly getting an upgrade at the quarterback position, as well as the familiarity and comfortability he has with Aaron Rodgers. My model projects Adams to catch 5.35 of 8.26 targets for 61.39 yards and 0.35 touchdowns.
DAVANTE ADAMS WALKS IN ON AARON RODGERS ON THE PAT MCAFEE SHOW ‼️ pic.twitter.com/uwC8P3Kodn
— Kyle (@ImKyleMangum) October 15, 2024
Other Flex Options: Aaron Rodgers, Pat Freiermuth, Breece Hall, Russell Wilson
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Boswell - K, $5,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 16/17 field goals made/attempted, 10/10 extra points made/attempted.
Is Chris Boswell the most valuable player on this Steelers team? I think there's a question to be had! All jokes aside, besides T.J. Watt, Boswell has been among the most important reasons the Steelers have gotten off to their 4-2 start.
I do think the addition of Russell Wilson to this Steelers' offense could make a positive difference in their red zone offense, I still have to imagine that the Jets can hunker down on their side of the field, allowing Boswell to knock through a handful of 40+ yard field goals.
Tyler Conklin - TE, $4,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 30 targets, 19 receptions, 191 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 10.9%
I'll wrap things up with Jets tight end Tyler Conklin. Conklin will inevitably slide down the totem pole in terms of target share with the addition of Davante Adams. Despite that impending regression, I still like Conklin to play a big part in the New York offense in this one.
The Jets offensive line may struggle to keep T.J. Watt and that Steelers front at bay, but I expect Conklin to proverbially "feast" in the short passing areas, particularly with screens and flat route targets. My model projects Conklin to bring in 2.81 receptions on 3.42 targets for 27.42 yards and 0.24 touchdowns.
Other Value Options: Braelon Allen, Jaylen Warren, Jets D/ST
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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