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Hello Rotoballers! The NHL season is in full swing, and we have another action-packed Saturday slate.
In this piece, I will discuss my favorite forward lines to target, defensemen, and goalies in tonight's action. Be sure to keep updated with any injury notes on our newsfeed before setting your lineup.
If you have any questions about further strategy and managing the slate, feel free to chat with me on X @ASmith_FS. All player salaries will be listed as ($DK/FD)
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Forward Lines To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Carolina Hurricanes L1 - Andrei Svechnikov ($5,400/6,700) - Sebastian Aho ($6,600/7,800) - Seth Jarvis ($5,100/6,600)
Opponent - St. Louis Blues
My top line to target is the first line in Carolina. This line has enjoyed a fantastic start to the campaign, boasting an impressive 72.7% xGoals and 6.77 xGoals per 60 minutes, according to MoneyPuck.
They are facing a St. Louis Blues team that has been sloppy in the defensive zone. Their 11.44 Expected Goals Against is the tenth-worst mark in the league on MoneyPuck.
St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington has not been able to compensate for the defensive mistakes, as he has posted an underwhelming 3.02 GAA and .895 SV% across his first three starts.
Even though the Hurricanes are coming into St. Louis from a back-to-back in Pittsburgh the night before, they have a favorable matchup.
New York Islanders L1 - Anthony Duclair ($4,100/5,900) - Bo Horvat ($6,000/7,200) - Mathew Barzal ($5,600/7,400)
Opponent- Montreal Canadiens
Another top line to target is the New York Islanders facing the Montreal Canadiens. Montreal has a young team, evident in their hefty 14.45 Expected Goals Against in 5 on 5 situations, which is the worst in the league, according to MoneyPuck, through their first four games.
Horvat, Barzal, and Duclair have all found the back of the net at least once through their first four games of the campaign and have held a strong 65.1% xGoals during this span.
Montreal will probably send out Sam Montembeault, who has been exceptional in starting the campaign, posting a .932 SV% in his first four starts. However, given how poorly the Montreal defense has performed, the Islanders should be able to take advantage and could be one of the best “cheaper” top lines on the slate.
Boston Bruins L1 - Pavel Zacha ($4,700/5,300) - Elias Lindholm ($6,500/6,600) - David Pastrnak ($9,300/8,700)
Opponent - Utah Hockey Club
While this line may not boast the most impressive underlying metrics as the previously mentioned options do, it has one of the best scorers in the league, David Pastrnak, who has enjoyed an excellent start.
Pastrnak has found the back of the net four times in his first five games and Elias Lindholm has tallied five points during this span.
David Pastrnak now with four goals in five games. pic.twitter.com/pOT7D6pkDQ
— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) October 17, 2024
On Saturday evening, they face the Utah Hockey Club, who hold the seventh-highest 11.46 Expected Goals Against on MoneyPuck in 5-on-5 play.
In addition, when shorthanded, Utah has the worst Expected Goals Against, 4.23, while Boston has the fourth-highest Expected Goals For total on the power play.
This line could get on the scoresheet both in 5-on-5 and in 5-on-4 situations.
Chicago Blackhawks L1 - Nick Foligno ($3,700/4,600) - Connor Bedard ($8,000/8,300) - Teuvo Teravainen ($5,200/6,300)
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Conner Bedard headlines my final top line and will face the Buffalo Sabres.
The Sabres have struggled in even-strength play, holding the sixth-highest 11.88 Expected Goals Against and fifth-highest 3.58 Expected Goals Against when shorthanded.
This Chicago unit has posted an excellent 60.5% xGoals in even-strength play. In addition, all three of these forwards are also deployed on the top power-play line.
Lastly, Buffalo starter Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has an underwhelming -1.8 Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck, which does not bode well given the poor Buffalo defense and scoring ability on this top line with Bedard at the helm.
Other Top Lines To Target (Cash/GPP):
- TOR L1
- NYR L2
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Defensemen To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Shayne Gostisbehere - Carolina Hurricanes ($4,000/5,600)
Opponent - St. Louis Blues
According to MoneyPuck, the Carolina Hurricanes currently boast the best 62.14% xGoals when on the man advantage through their first two games.
Much of this is credited to their power play quarterback, Shayne Gostisbehere. “The Ghost” has seen over 70% of the possible ice time on the power-play and is not afraid to shoot the puck, as he averages 11.18 shots per goal per 60 minutes.
In even strength, he has shown similar tendencies with an impressive 15.14 shots on goal per 60 minutes.
While his sample size this season is very small, his willingness to shoot and see top special teams' movements should put him in a good position for a favorable matchup.
Dougie Hamilton - New Jersey Devils ($6,400/6,300)
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Dougie Hamilton has filled the box score quite effectively through his first seven games this season. During this span, he has tallied at least three shots in every game but one, registered three or more blocks in three, and had at least over two minutes of power-play time in every game.
Even though he has tallied only one point, given his underlying metrics, he is due for massive regression, given his willingness to shoot the puck and play top power-play minutes.
Hamilton has seen over 70.9% of possible ice time on the power-play and averaged 10.85 shots per goal per 60 minutes while on the man advantage.
In addition, the New Jersey power play has been generating high-quality chances as they hold the second-highest 4.37 Expected Goals mark.
Better days are ahead for Hamilton, and facing projected starter Logan Thompson, who holds a pedestrian 0.6 Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck, suggests it could start this evening.
Brock Faber - Minnesota Wild ($4,800/5,600)
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
My final top defenseman to target is Brock Faber of the Minnesota Wild. Faber has seen top minutes this season and has generated an impressive 3.17 x Goals Per 60 Minutes with his linemate Jacob Middleton.
Faber also tallied an assist in two out of his first four games and saw more than three minutes of power-play time in three.
Hartsy didn't waste any time 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/31ZFj0MwmU
— Minnesota Wild (@mnwild) October 15, 2024
His offensive ability in all situations makes him a high-upside play, especially facing the Columbus Blue Jackets and projected starter Elvis Merzlikins, who has a rough -3.6 Goals Saved Above Expected in his first two starts.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Rasmus Dahlin - Buffalo Sabres ($6,000/6,700)
- Noah Dobson - New York Islanders ($5,800/6,300)
- Charlie McAvoy - Boston Bruins ($6,100/6,900)
Goalies To Target - NHL DFS Picks
Filip Gustavsson - Minnesota Wild ($8,300/8,200)
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
The 26-year-old has gotten off to a solid start to the season, holding a 1.66 GAA and .948 SV% with a 2-1 record. Gustavsson also found the back of the net on October 15 against the St. Louis Blues after stopping 27 of the 28 shots he faced.
FILIP GUSTAVSSON HAS SCORED A GOAL. WE REPEAT...
FILIP GUSTAVSSON HAS SCORED A GOAL 🗣️🗣️🗣️ pic.twitter.com/w9DY7XBYVw
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 16, 2024
Under the hood, he has made 3.5 Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck, the sixth-highest in the sport.
Facing the Blue Jackets, who have generated the fourth-lowest Expected Goals In total, makes him a safe play with immense upside not only for a win but also an excellent outing.
Kevin Lankinen - Vancouver Canucks ($7,800/7,800)
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
The 29-year-old has looked sharp in his first two starts, posting a .932 SV%, a 1.89 GAA, and 0.8 Goals Saved Above Expected.
He will face the Philadelphia Flyers, who have generated a mere 1.76 Expected Goals Per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 play, the second-lowest mark in the sport. They have not fared much better on the power play, with a 3.92 Expected Goals Per 60, the 11th-lowest mark.
Vancouver has been very sound defensively, boasting an impressive 2.28 Expected Goals Against Per 60, which should play well against the Flyers.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Igor Shesterkin - New York Rangers ($7,400/$7,400)
- Jacob Markstrom - New Jersey Devils ($8,400/8,300)
NHL DFS Value Line Stacks of the Day
- NYI L3
- CHI L2
- CAR L3
- NYR L3
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
