RADIO
We have our busiest Saturday since Week 3 with 48 games today. Most teams are in conference play now and most have had their bye. This is where the grind starts to hit.
I finished 25-27 last week but still won nine betting points. After a disastrous Week 6, that's exactly what I needed. Let's try and do better this week. I'm still off to a good start so far. I am 183-161 picking every game this year. Let's keep it going!
These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bet more than you can afford. This is supposed to be for fun and excitement.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 8 (10/19/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(6) Miami (FL) (-4.5) at Louisville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping for an overreaction line and I didn't get it. This line is up five points in most places already (4.5 is fairly hard to find). That half doesn't matter much to me.
Haters are going to say that Miami should have lost both of the last two games. Cal is better than we thought and Virginia Tech is finally realizing it is a good team. I wanted a lower spread, but I still think Miami wins, more than likely by a touchdown. Give me the Canes.
Virginia at (10) Clemson (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Virginia isn't going to win this game, but the Hoos are playing well over the last month or so. Give me Virginia. I think it slows Clemson down a bit.
Nebraska at (16) Indiana (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was expecting more here but didn't get it because of Indiana's soft schedule. Nebraska is 4-1-1 against the spread this year because of its defense. I don't think this line is out of hand, but Indiana isn't going to wipe the field with the Huskers, either. Give me Nebraska. Say 28-24 or so.
Auburn at (19) Missouri (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has plunged six points and I don't see a good reason why. Give me Missouri. I feel a lot better about it now than I did on Monday with the spread at -10 in most spots.
Auburn at #19 Missouri by the numbers pic.twitter.com/nFmBy4oBoL
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) October 16, 2024
East Carolina at (23) Army (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I learned my lesson last week. Give me Army.
Wisconsin (-7.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Northwestern defense struggled last week and Tawee Walker is a difference-maker for the Badgers. Give me Bucky.
UCLA at Rutgers (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was ready to push in on UCLA in its next game, but this is a tough one. It's a 9 a.m. Pacific time kickoff in Piscataway. That's a tough ask for a West Coast team. I'll take Rutgers, but I'm probably leaving this alone.
Wake Forest at Connecticut (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UConn destroyed a pretty good Buffalo team a couple of weeks ago. You know ... the week that Wake lost to Louisiana. Give me UConn. Wake doesn't have anyone who can cover Skyler Bell.
Arizona State at Cincinnati (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cam Skattebo was able to run all over a solid Utah defense. I like the Fun Devils outright.
Louisiana (-4.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was hoping CCU would be favored in this one so I could hammer the Cajuns. That's not happening. I'm still taking the Cajuns but lowering the bet.
South Carolina at Oklahoma (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Deion Burks has been upgraded to questionable for the Sooners, but Jayden Gibson, Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson, and Andrel Anthony all remain out. It may not matter. We can't run and can't stretch the field. Give me South Carolina.
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Central beat San Diego State and almost beat Ohio. What has Eastern Michigan done besides lose me points? Give me the Chips.
Tulsa at Temple (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like the half, but I don't trust Tulsa at all. Give me Temple at home.
(7) Alabama (-3.5) at (11) Tennessee
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alabama feels too one-dimensional to win this game in Knoxville. I'll say the goalposts find the Tennessee River again.
(12) Notre Dame (-10.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. The Irish are playing well right now and maybe the Wreck is getting a little too much credit for wins over Florida State and North Carolina. Give me the Irish.
(24) Michigan (-3.5) at (22) Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I love the Wolverines being favored in Champaign, especially since I think Illinois is at least equal to Michigan right now. Michigan's offense can't move the ball well enough to keep up. Give me the Illini straight up.
Reasons you should hammer Illinois ML this Saturday:
- Sold out stadium
- Michigan took a step back
- 100 year Memorial Stadium rededication game
- these sick ass throwback unis (pictured below)
- immediate bowl eligibility pic.twitter.com/Vx3k5R1p8D— I-L-Lunatic (@itsjustgaret) October 16, 2024
Charlotte at (25) Navy (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Charlotte lost to North Carolina by 18 points. Navy beat Memphis. This feels easy.
North Carolina State at California (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was hoping it would be within a touchdown, but maybe I should be happy it's still in single digits. I'm taking Cal. The Pack are cooked.
Houston vs. Kansas (-5.5) at Kansas City, MO
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't think it has been said enough that Kansas is struggling because it doesn't have a home. The Booth did need renovations and the team within said stadium seemed worthy of it. The Jayhawks aren't playing like it this year because they won't play a true home game in 2024.
I kind of think this feels high. Kansas is capable of winning this game, but I can't count on it right now. There's no way I'm touching this. Give me Kansas, I guess...
Hawaii at Washington State (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This still isn't too high to scare me off. Give me the Cougs.
Texas State (-9.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No matter what I pick, it's going to be wrong anyway. I'm cursed picking the Monarchs. Texas State is the better team. I have to go with the Bobcats.
Ohio at Miami (OH) (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This promises to be another fun installment of the Battle of the Bricks. The 100th meeting is going to be a wild one with the game that Parker Navarro had last week. The Redhawks haven't won in Oxford since 2018. I like Ohio here.
Kent State at Bowling Green (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know that I trust the Bowling Green defense to cover this. It barely beat Fordham by this. Give me Kent. It is not going to win outright, but it'll stay within 14-17 points.
Western Michigan (-1.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't buy it. The Buffalo defense is playing well and the offense is good enough. I'll take the Bulls.
Toledo at Northern Illinois (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Toledo was blanked in the first half by Buffalo last week and NIU locked down Harold Fannin Jr., one of the best players in the MAC last week. I think we can trust the Huskies at home.
UAB at South Florida (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Golesh indicated Byrum Brown will be another late-week decision. Said he's practicing, but added, "It's hard if he's not totally healthy for him to be able to do what he does." #USF
— Joey Knight (@TBTimes_Bulls) October 15, 2024
This doesn't sound promising, so I'm leaving it alone. There are enough other things to bet on. Give me USF just in case Brown plays.
Florida Atlantic at UTSA (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is more than a little surprising to me, especially after the way Cam Fancher played last week. Give me the Owls.
Rice at Tulane (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high, especially with a guy like E.J. Warner on the short side of this spread. I'll take Rice.
USC (-7.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Terrapins looked 50 shades of awful last week. Give me the Trojans.
Colorado at Arizona (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tetairoa McMillan will be able to get behind this defense, but the Colorado offense is going to be trouble for the Wildcats as well. Give me the Ralphies, but I'm not touching this.
Baylor at Texas Tech (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I expected this and I still think it's too low. I'm good with Tech for anything under 10.
New Mexico (-1.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I can't believe that I'm saying this, but Spencer Petras is going to have a monster day. I'll take the Aggies at home.
Wyoming at San Jose State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Can I trust this awful defense to cover this kind of spread? Probably not. Give me Wyoming, but I don't trust it.
James Madison (-9.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Eagles pushed Boise, beat Nevada, beat Georgia State (who beat Vanderbilt), and stormed back to beat Marshall. I don't think they get covered at home. Give me GSU.
(14) Texas A&M (-17.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
? Mississippi State football lost to No. 5 Georgia, but as a whole, given everything, the team looked... dare we say it... good
True freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. passed 20/37 for 306 yards and 3 TD, earning Co-SEC Freshman of the Week honors
Next: No. 14 Texas A&M pic.twitter.com/KcCIrOdrUf
— David Edelstein ? (@davidzedelstein) October 16, 2024
Michael Van Buren Jr. held his own against Georgia in Athens. This is too many. I like the Aggies to win, but it might be tougher than they expect.
(8) LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened at -9. Now, it shares my sentiments exactly. This is going to be a tough one in Fayetteville for LSU, but I still think the Tigers take a close one.
Ball State at Vanderbilt (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Okay ... so ... Vandy isn't a team that gets into a position where it is blowing someone out. The Alcorn State game isn't much of a barometer. Will it still rest starters? How will it respond? There's no way I'm touching this line. I don't suggest you do, either. I'll take Vandy, but only because I've picked every game for 10 years.
Arkansas State (-6.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I believe it. The Eagles are seriously bad. Give me the Red Wolves.
(5) Georgia at (1) Texas (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It’s funny how the more research I do and film I watch for big games, the more confident I feel about Texas. Happened for both Michigan and Oklahoma as weeks progressed.
It’s happening again for the Georgia game.
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_OTF) October 17, 2024
I completely agree. It feels like Georgia is starting to slip and Texas is not. I still like the Longhorns here. I would bet more if the spread were still around three points.
Central Florida at (9) Iowa State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
UCF doesn't have a quarterback. Iowa State has everything. Cyclones win BIG!
(17) Kansas State (-2.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
A couple of observations here. Everyone is still acting like K-State getting demolished in Provo is a bad thing and unfairly holding it against the team. Recent spreads have reflected this. The other three conference wins for the Wildcats are against teams better than the Mountaineers. I still like K-State.
Iowa (-5.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Iowa has scored 40 points in a game twice this season. It might make it three here. The Hawkeyes should win by at least double this.
North Texas at Memphis (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
North Texas is going to score some points, but it has been giving up a lot more. The trend continues...
Kentucky (-1.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Thank you, Gator Nation ? pic.twitter.com/8pKEbwaos6
— Graham Mertz (@GrahamMertz5) October 14, 2024
This is unfortunate for Mertz as he was having arguably his best college game against Tennessee before he went down. DJ Lagway didn't play poorly, but he did have moments where he didn't make the right decision.
Facing another opportunistic defense in Kentucky this week is going to make things as difficult as possible for Lagway. This is a game that Billy Napier desperately needs. Part of me feels like Florida steps up for the coach and fallen quarterback. Part of me knows that Kentucky is the better team. Give me the Wildcats, but I'm leaving this alone.
(21) SMU (-16.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Cardinal have played one good game all season. This won't be the second. Give me SMU.
Colorado State (-6.5) at Air Force
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
An underrated rivalry waged on I-25 in Colorado. I'm here for it. Give me the Rams.
UNLV (-6.5) at Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Beavers just lost to Nevada. I'll say UNLV wins this and the Fremont Cannon game is off the chain this year!
TCU at Utah (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Utah QB Cameron Rising is out indefinitely and Utah will reportedly consider a redshirt for his 8th year
Issac Wilson will be the starter going forward pic.twitter.com/nJUTbJwFuq
— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) October 14, 2024
Honestly, this is what needed to be done. Cameron Rising will have a life after football and it certainly won't have much to do with football. His teammates can move forward this year knowing that Isaac Wilson is the guy. It also gives Rising one last shot at football if he wants to take it.
This kind of closure is what Utah never really got in 2023. I think it ultimately helps the team. I'll take the Utes.
I chickened out with only two max bets this week as well. I didn't see as many spots as I liked. I have six four-point bets, which is a little down from last week. My six minimum bets are the same. Most of the extra picks this week landed on the two-line with 28 games there. That's one of my highest in history. I have 17 three-point bets even though I have been missing lots of those.
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