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We finally had our first 2-0 week of the season in Week 6. The Lions did their part against the fraudulent Cowboys, and the Packers took care of business at home against the Cardinals. Feels good to be back in the win column.
Week 7 offers us another opportunity to keep the good vibes going. We’re targeting a couple of home favorites to get the job done. Let’s keep the momentum rolling for another week.
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Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Detroit Lions
Minnesota is coming off its bye while Detroit is fresh off a huge victory on the road over the Dallas Cowboys. While the Lions picked up the win, they suffered a huge loss when star pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a serious injury. He will miss the rest of the season.
#Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson did, in fact, suffer a season-ending fractured tibia. He'll undergo additional tests to confirm the full severity, but his season is over. pic.twitter.com/bucs1Zntud
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) October 14, 2024
No Hutchinson will be an issue in this game. Detroit’s secondary has had problems again this year, and if the pass rush isn’t getting home, it will leave Sam Darnold plenty of time to find Justin Jefferson and the other Minnesota pass-catchers.
The Vikings defense has been their true calling card this year as they rank first in defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Much is made about Detroit’s run defense, but fun fact: Minnesota ranks better in defensive rush DVOA and rushing yards allowed per game.
Expect Detroit to have trouble consistently moving the ball on the ground, and that could make the Lions offense one-dimensional. Jared Goff famously struggles when under siege. This aggressive Brian Flores defense is likely to force a few errant throws, and Minnesota will need to capitalize on these opportunities.
This is a good spot to fade the Lions after a huge win in a revenge game last week. I expect Minnesota to remain undefeated and improve to 6-0.
An aside: This line has been moving in favor of the Lions throughout the week. I am of the opinion this is incorrect as I believe the loss of Hutchinson will have a major impact on this game. I’m putting in my pick for this article at the current price but will wait to make my wager closer to game time as I think we might get an even better price then. Keep an eye on this line over the weekend and be ready to pounce.
Pick: Vikings Moneyline (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .625 Units to Win .5 Units
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
The Packers sit at 4-2 and are riding a two-game winning streak. They welcome a Texans team that is on a three-game winning streak of their own. Green Bay holds a substantial edge offensively as it currently sits fifth in offensive DVOA, compared to Houston at 17th.
Green Bay also ranks seventh in PFF’s defensive pass coverage grade, and Houston could feel the loss of Nico Collins in this matchup. The Packers run defense has also been much better this year. It ranks 13th in defensive rushing DVOA and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game. Jordan Love has had a very up-and-down year. If he limits mistakes, then the Packers should prevail in this battle of young up-and-coming quarterbacks.
Green Bay has one of the best home-field advantages in the league. Expect that to come into play in this game. The Packers are the play.
Pick: Packers -2.5 (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .575 Units to Win .5 Units
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