RB Strength of Schedule Analysis - Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups (2024)

Last week, I dove deep into the WR strength of schedule for fantasy football and the wide receiver position. This week, I’ll go through the same process with fantasy RBs. The fantasy RB position has been volatile (to say the least) so far in 2024, with some big names going down with injuries, some big names about to make their season debuts, and, most recently, forgotten RBs like Sean Tucker bursting onto the fantasy scene.

The fantasy strength of schedule has been near and dear to my heart ever since I joined the fantasy football industry back in 2020. It is something I always gravitated toward before I started producing content, loving to see that green color font for my skill players’ opponents (depending on the platform). I have brightened the shade of green color a bit in the charts I produce, but it’s meant to produce the same response and reaction.

Psychologically, for me, that bright green color can add an extra layer of confidence and excitement for the upcoming fantasy weekend. And while the results will never match the pre-game excitement 100% of the time, I play fantasy football to have fun, and the lead-up to the games each week is just as (and sometimes more) fun than the actual games for me.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

 

Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SOS) Process

In this article, I will present the strength of the schedule for the fantasy RB position, with a focus on the immediate future (Weeks 7-10). You may have read my preseason article series for RotoBaller, where I covered projected fantasy strength of schedule for the skill positions. The criteria I use before the season starts differs from what I will be using for this strength of schedule now that we are six weeks in.

A player’s opponent's strength should not be the sole reason you choose to start or sit that player in a given week. But it should be a piece of the decision-making process. It can be a good tiebreaker if you are deciding between two players.

By looking at current and future matchup difficulties and breaking the season down into different time frames (e.g., “Next four Games”, “Stretch Run,” and Fantasy Playoffs), you can strategize for potential trade attempts.

If a player has a difficult stretch of games in the next month, followed by a much more favorable schedule after that, you might be able to catch a manager in a panic after their player understandably underperforms against tough opponents and make a move right before their schedule opens up. And vice versa.

To that end, along with the “Next four Games” zoomed-in view, a new addition to this year’s article will be the inclusion of a closer look at the “Stretch Run” matchups (Week 11-14), rather than just being displayed in the full-season color-coded chart.

I’ll start by providing some insight into my process and what data I use to project opponent strength and strength of schedule. Then, we’ll look closer at the different scheduled time frames.

Rather than simply looking at raw fantasy points allowed, I use an opponent-adjusted system that compares those raw fantasy points allowed to what the opponent typically scores.

For example, if Team A gives up 25 fantasy points to the Ravens’ RB group and Team B gives up the same number of points to the Raiders’ RB group, raw fantasy points allowed would show Team A and B being the same matchup difficulty versus RBs. Using “Points Over Average (POA)” paints a more accurate picture.

Through six weeks, the Ravens’ RBs (mostly Derrick Henry) have averaged 29.4 points per game, and the Raiders have averaged 19.2 points per game. Using the POA allowed, Team A held the Ravens 4.4 points under their average (a POA allowed of -4.4), while Team B allowed the Raiders to score 5.8 points above their average (a POA allowed of +5.8).

Through this lens, these two teams are far from an equal matchup difficulty. This turns raw fantasy points allowed to an “opponent-adjusted” fantasy points allowed.

The other angle I am adding to the equation is recency. A team’s season-long average points allowed can look different than over a more recent stretch of games. Defenses improve or regress for a variety of reasons. Players get injured or return from injury, coaches adjust their schemes and game plans (on both sides of the ball), and, more qualitatively, players and teams “figure it out.”

Neither season-long nor recent data sets are definitive, but it’s important to look at both when trying to increase the probability of making the right future decisions.

The following are the data sets I use in my process for determining opponent strength versus fantasy RBs (PPR format):

1. Raw fantasy points allowed to RBs per game.
2. POA allowed to RBs per game; season-long.
3. POA allowed to RBs per game over the last three games.
4. Rushing yards allowed to the RB position per game.

In my weekly data compiling and fantasy SOS process, I also break down the RB position further into matchup strength versus RB fantasy points from receiving only (PFR) and points from rushing only (PFRu). I will be addressing the SOS for this RB breakdown in a separate article.

 

2024 Rest-of-Season Fantasy Strength of Schedule

I generated tables showing each team’s rest of season (ROS) schedule (Week 7-17), with each weekly opponent, color-coded based on that opponent’s rank (1-32) versus the fantasy RB position. Lower numbers ranked red indicate more difficult fantasy matchups.

Higher number ranks with a green color represent easier matchups. I update these each week. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the ROS schedule for RBs is included at the end of the article.

This schedule heat map is provided in two formats. One shows each team’s opponents’ team abbreviation. The other shows the actual rank (1-32).

Also included are each team’s ROS and fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17) SOS score (average of opponent ranks in those time frames).

 

2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule Time Frames

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, I define each as follows:

• Next 4: Weeks 6-9
• Stretch Run: Weeks 10-14
• Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, I define each as follows:

• Next 4: Weeks 7-10
• Stretch Run: Weeks 11-14
• Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In this article, I will be looking at each time frame, and the teams with the Top 10 most favorable fantasy matchups for RBs during those spans according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

For these time frame breakdowns, I also added the current primary RB for each team, as well as each of those RB’s PPR PPG and weighted opportunity share. Standard opportunity share looks at an individual RB’s number of opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) as a percentage of the team’s total opportunities.

Each opportunity type is assigned an equal value of one (e.g., one rush attempt and one target equals two opportunities).

“Weighted” opportunity is a metric created by Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. They incorporated red zone opportunities into the equation as opportunities within the opponent’s 20-yard line are more valuable than non-red zone opportunities. Weighted opportunities are assigned different values in and outside of the red zone.

The biggest edge in fantasy football is knowing which stats matter and which are noise.

For RBs, volume is almost EVERYTHING. But I don't mean snaps, carries, or touches.

Every carry and target in and out of the Red Zone holds different value.

Weighted Opportunity rules all. pic.twitter.com/1zZml1sF20

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 7, 2024

 

Fantasy Football - Next 4 Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s RB schedule over the next four games (Week 7-10). This is just a condensed version of the color-coded charts shown for the ROS schedule (with players added in) and is sorted by the SOS score in the right-hand column from highest (easier) to lowest (harder).

Coming off of their Week 6 bye, the Dolphins sit atop the favorable RB schedule list over the next month. They are the only team with four “plus” matchups (opponents ranked 16^th or worse versus RBs) and no bye.

They start with a bang against the 28^th-ranked Colts (fifth-easiest matchup), a team with a +2.5 POA allowed to RBs on the season and +6.7 POA allowed over the last three games.

The Miami RB pecking order is difficult to decipher, with Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright combining for 32 rush attempts in Week 5. But De'Von Achane, who has dealt with injuries, is back to full practice participant, and I expect him to go off against the Colts.

Next up is D'Andre Swift and the Bears, with the second-most favorable next-four RB schedule. Chicago does have a bye in Week 6 but then faces the 19^th-ranked Commanders, 22^nd-ranked Cardinals, and 29^th-ranked Patriots in their next three.

Swift has put his early season inefficiency and disappointment in the rearview mirror as of late. Swift scored fewer than 13 PPR fantasy points in the first two weeks. Over his last three games, he is averaging 23.8 PPG.

D’Andre Swift’s ranks amongst RBs over the last 3 weeks:

Fantasy Points: 71.4 (2nd)
Rushing Yards: 257 (4th)
Rushing TD: 3 (3rd)
Receiving Yards: 147 (1st)
Scrimmage Yards: 404 (2nd) pic.twitter.com/uLkVMk8ajj

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 14, 2024

The third-easiest RB schedule over the next four belongs to the Bills, although that commences in Week 7 with a brutal matchup against the sixth-ranked Titans. And that one tough matchup is the only reason Buffalo is not at the top of this list.

In Weeks 8, 9, and 10, a hopefully healthy James Cook and the Bills’ RBs face the Seahawks (25^th), Dolphins (30^th), and Colts (28^th), a three-game stretch that is unmatched in this time frame.

Seattle checks in with the fourth-most favorable next four RB schedule according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed process. Like the Bills, the Seahawks begin with a difficult matchup with the ninth-ranked Falcons. They have a Week 10 bye, so it is not the ideal schedule structure for this stretch. But, sandwiched between the Falcons and their bye, Seattle faces the Bills (31^st) and Rams (24^th).

Number five on the Next four list is Kyren Williams and the Rams. The Rams’ one tough matchup comes in Week 8 versus the second-ranked Vikings, but looking at their three-game set outside of that, only the Bills have a better trio of games.

Los Angeles gets the Raiders in Week 6 (26^th), the Seahawks in Week 9 (25^th), and the Dolphins in Week 10 (30^th). Having already had his bye week, Williams is a locked-and-loaded, set-it-and-forget-it RB1 moving forward.

Good matchups for a few of the NFL’s workhorse RBs:

Kyren Williams:
-Highest carry share in the league at 76.6% of LAR carries
-Facing a LV defense that ranks:
-24th in Rush YPG allowed
-29th in Rush YPC allowed

Chuba Hubbard:
-Game script could certainly affect Chubba’s carry… pic.twitter.com/2T7eDCI7HD

— Sporting Intelligence (@SportIntellgnce) October 16, 2024

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable Next four RB schedules are listed below:

• Sixth: Falcons
  • Week 7: Seahawks (25^th)
  • Week 8: Buccaneers (8^th)
  • Week 9: Cowboys (21^st)
  • Week 10: Saints (27^th)
• Seventh: Vikings
  • Week 7: Lions (Fourth)
  • Week 8: Rams (24^th)
  • Week 9: Colts (28^th)
  • Week 10: Jaguars (23^rd)
• Eighth: Titans
  • Week 7: Bills (31^st)
  • Week 8: Lions (Fourth)
  • Week 9: Patriots (29^th)
  • Week 10: Chargers (11^th)
• Ninth: Giants
  • Week 7: Eagles (13^th)
  • Week 8: Steelers (10^th)
  • Week 9: Commanders (19^th)
  • Week 10: Panthers (32^nd)
• 10^th: Eagles
  • Week 7: Giants (Seventh)
  • Week 8: Bengals (20^th)
  • Week 9: Jaguars (23^rd)
  • Week 10: Cowboys (21^st)

 

Fantasy Football Stretch Run Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s RB schedule for the regular season Stretch Run (Week 11-14).

Breece Hall finally looked like himself again in Week 6, with 23 touches for 169 total yards, including five catches. That’s more like it after an inexplicably dismal Week 4 and 5. With the addition of Davante Adams to the WR room and Nathaniel Hackett no longer calling the offensive plays, the arrow is pointing up for the entire Jets’ offense.

Breece Hall in first game under interim HC Jeff Ulbrich and OC Todd Downing:

86% snap rate (season high)
76% route rate (season high)
18 carries (season high)
113 rushing yards (season high)

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 15, 2024

This, combined with their Stretch Run RB schedule, could have Hall winning managers their weeks at a crucial time during the fantasy season. The Jets do have their bye in Week 12, but their three-game stretch outside of the bye is in the realm of favorability on par with the Bills and Rams in the next four span. The Jets face the Colts (28^th), Seahawks (25^th), and Dolphins (30^th)

The Patriots have the second-best Stretch Run RB schedule with their toughest opponent before their Week 10 bye, ranking 24^th versus RBs (Rams).

As of this writing, I do not know if Rhamondre Stevenson will play in Week 7 or what the RB usage is going to look like in New England moving forward. I do know that, even after only one game, the Patriots offense looks more competent with rookie Drake Maye under center, which bodes well for the run game.

The Chiefs move from the middle of the pack in the next four (with tough matchups against the 49ers, Buccaneers, and Broncos in that span) to arguably the best RB schedule during the Stretch Run (since they do not have a bye).

After a messy few weeks of fantasy analysts trying to figure out the Chiefs’ backfield value following the leg injury to Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt has settled in as the RB to roster in Kansas City. Since taking his first snap in Week 4, Hunt’s RB Opportunity Share in Weeks 4 and 5 were 63% and 80%.

"It would not shock me at all if ROS Kareem Hunt was a top six fantasy football running back."

-@dynastyprice pic.twitter.com/XlRhXZYIwc

— Dynasty Nerds (@DynastyNerds) October 10, 2024

The term “bell cow” has faded from the fantasy football nomenclature over the years, but an 80% RB Opportunity Share is bell cow usage. However, Pacheco’s timetable for return from his broken leg may have him back in the proverbial saddle by the Stretch Run. Whoever the RB is, he’ll get three top-5 most favorable RB matchups in those four games.

Remember what I said about Kyren Williams? Well, he stays in the good graces of the schedule gods during the Stretch Run, with matchups against the Patriots (29^th), Eagles (13^th), Saints (27^th), and Bills (31^st).

It is hard to know if we will ever see Christian McCaffrey during the 2024 season. Those who hit the jackpot in drafting Jordan Mason for free may want McCaffrey to just heal up for 2025. Regardless, the 49ers face the fourth-most favorable Stretch Run RB schedule.

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable Stretch Run schedules are listed below:

• Sixth: Buccaneers
  • Week 11: BYE
  • Week 12: Giants (Seventh)
  • Week 13: Panthers (32^nd)
  • Week 14: Raiders (26^th)
• Seventh: Dolphins
  • Week 11: Raiders (26^th)
  • Week 12: Patriots (29^th)
  • Week 13: Packers (16^th)
  • Week 14: Jets (14^th)
• Eighth: Lions
  • Week 11: Jaguars (23^rd)
  • Week 12: Colts (28^th)
  • Week 13: Bears (15^th)
  • Week 14: Packers (16^th)
• Ninth: Eagles
  • Week 11: Commanders (19^th)
  • Week 12: Rams (24^th)
  • Week 13: Ravens (Third)
  • Week 14: Panthers (32^nd)
• 10^th: Seahawks
  • Week 11: 49ers (18^th)
  • Week 12: Cardinals (22^nd)
  • Week 13: Jets (14^th)
  • Week 14: Cardinals (22^nd)

 

Fantasy Football Playoffs Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s RB schedule for the Fantasy Playoffs (Week 15-17).

Five teams with a Top 10 Stretch Run RB schedule remain in the Top 10 during the Fantasy Playoffs: Jets (Second), Lions (Fourth), Patriots (Fifth), Buccaneers (Sixth), and 49ers (10^th).

The Cardinals, a team just outside of the ten-most favorable RB schedules during the Stretch Run, vaults to the top of the list during the Fantasy Playoffs. Whether James Conner maintains his stranglehold on Arizona’s backfield or rookie Trey Benson becomes more involved as the season progresses, Arizona faces the Patriots (29^th), Panthers (32^nd), and Rams (24^th) in Weeks 15-17.

The Titans rejoin the party during the Fantasy Playoffs, with the third-most favorable RB schedule during that span. Tony Pollard looks like the primary RB in Tennessee thus far, and I do not see that changing later in the season.

#TitanUp RB Tony Pollard quietly has 4 finishes of rb15 or better in 5 games..

Currently 12th in EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATING🧨🧨 with 10 explosive plays thru 5 games, & facing a Buffalo team giving up 21.6ppg to rbs..

Is Pollard a MUST START this week? 🤔

pic.twitter.com/BLUKLGn6d7

— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) October 16, 2024

Pollard is coming off one of his better games of the season, as he turned 17 carries into 93 yards and a score, finishing as the PPR RB15 for Week 6. During the Fantasy Playoffs, the Titans get the Bengals (20^th), Colts (28^th), and Jaguars (23^rd) to close out the fantasy season.

The remaining top-10 favorable Fantasy Playoffs schedules are listed below:

• Seventh: Saints
  • Week 15: Commanders (19^th)
  • Week 16: Packers (16^th)
  • Week 17: Raiders (26^th)
• Eighth: Broncos
  • Week 15: Colts (28^th)
  • Week 16: Chargers (11^th)
  • Week 17: Bengals (20^th)
• Ninth: Raiders
  • Week 15: Falcons (Ninth)
  • Week 16: Jaguars (23^rd)
  • Week 17: Saints (27^th)
• 10^th: 49ers
  • Week 15: Rams (24^th)
  • Week 16: Dolphins (30^th)
  • Week 17: Lions (Fourth)

Before I go, I will leave you with the ROS heat map schedules for each team for the RB position (Week 7-17), ordered from best to worst SOS scores. Good luck during the rest of the 2024 fantasy football season!

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. I will be compiling data every week all season long and updating the fantasy strength of the schedule each week.

I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

 

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