RADIO
The first two events of October have come and gone, and with them, we've crowned two maiden victors at golf's highest level. The first, Kevin Yu, has been a long-time breakout candidate on the lips of many golf touts, and last week, Matt McCarty continued what is one of the hottest runs going in the sport: logging his first PGA Tour win and fourth win as a professional in a span of just three months. For us at Flag Hunting, it's been a frustrating run of collapses and poor putt luck (although I suppose that's what you sign up for when you bet Lucas Glover).
However, as we depart the Red Rocks of Utah for Sin City, we reach a venue that has been a long-time tonic for our early season troubles at FHP. Between Sungjae in 2021, and Tom Kim back-to-back years in 2022-23, we've managed to hit three consecutive outrights in the Las Vegas Desert. The tournament itself has also been known to produce some wild theatrics of its own: from a walk-off hole-in-one, to an epic final-hole collapse by one of its most accomplished champions, and win number 1 of 82 for the most electrifying athlete we've seen in the modern age. If history is any indicator, TPC Summerlin is the perfect spot to keep up the breakneck pace we've started on this fall.
This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here's everything you need to know about TPC Summerlin and the 2024 Shriners Children's Hospital Open!
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The Golf Course
TPC Summerlin - Par 71; 7,255 yards
Past Champions:
- 2023: Tom Kim (-20) over Adam Hadwin
- 2022: Tom Kim (-24) over Patrick Cantlay & Matthew NeSmith
- 2021: Sungjae Im (-24) over Matthew Wolff
- 2020: Martin Laird (-23) over Matthew Wolff & Austin Cook (playoff)
- 2019: Kevin Na (-23) ove Patrick Cantlay (playoff)
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21) over Patrick Cantlay
Playing at over 3,000 feet of elevation as a 7,200 yard golf course, TPC Summerlin is very much in line with the general ethos we've discussed through the first month of the Swing Season: birdie opportunities aplenty, wedge chances on virtually every hole, and a ton of money to be won and lost on the greens from inside of 15 feet.
I'll go more in detail about the metrics I'll be using to decipher this week's top names, but no 2024 Shriners handicap should be released without first discussing the potential pitfalls the weather will be throwing at the 132 players in Las Vegas.
Unlike the usual dome-like conditions we see out of this tournament on a routine basis, this year's iteration of the Shriners Children's Open is forecasted to be among the most wind-affected events we've had of the entire 2024 season. As of Tuesday evening, sustained winds as high as 26 mph (with gusts reaching 35-40) are expected all the way from Thursday afternoon through the early morning hours of Saturday.
Temperatures also project to dip into the 50s for much of Friday/Saturday as well, further adding to the subprime scoring narratives. The Vegas Strip has taken note of this: with many "winning score" lines currently being set in the mid-teens despite the winner of this event reaching the (-20) threshold every year since 2018.
Now, it'd be one thing if this weather projected to effect the entire field equally, but as is often the case with windswept golf tournaments, this week's forecast appears to favor one side of the tee sheet clearly over the other. In fact, when you pull up the early morning coverage on Thursday, you probably won't notice anything different about this years Shriners rendition compared to one's in the past. Thursday morning forecasts are as benign as you could possibly hope for: 70 degrees, sunny, and wind "gusts" clocking in at a meager 5 mph.
Once the clock turns into the PM hours, however, gusts project to surge into the 25-30 mph range, which could surely wreak havoc on any players who aren't in complete control of their games. And unfortunately for the Thursday PM wave, things are only projected to get worse as they tee it up for their second round Friday morning. According to Windfinder's latest predictions, 8 am starters could see sustained winds clocking in at upwards of 30 mph, with gusts reaching into the 50s.
These forecasts paint the picture of perhaps the most lopsided wave advantage we've seen in some time on the PGA Tour, and in my estimation, eliminates half the field from any consideration in the outright market -- at least while prices remain unadjusted. In full disclosure, every outright bet I intend to make this week are on players in the advantageous wave (Thursday AM/Friday PM), and while I don't for one second expect this weather to put TPC Summerlin in the class of a Muirfield Village or Bay Hill in terms of difficulty, but the projected conditions do call for an adjustment to my overall handicap -- and the general profile I'll be leaning on.
Let's start with driving: which in normal years is as heavily skewed towards driving accuracy as any event on Tour. With its aforementioned elevation and the generally firmer conditions of desert golf, TPC Summerlin routinely ranks inside the top five in average driving distance on Tour. It's relatively wide fairways (~35 yards on average), and lack of real rough penalty (0.31 strokes), makes it very difficult for elite drivers to separate themselves from the pack, and through the years, we've seen a collection of mediocre drivers of the ball perform well around Summerlin's benign layout.
Kevin Na won here in 2020 whilst losing 0.8 strokes off of the tee. J.T. Poston and Eric Cole each came within two shots of last years title with negative Strokes Gained: OTT ratings, and in 2021, four of the top 10 and nine of the top 20 on the final leaderboard rated out below field average in Total Driving.
I wouldn't necessarily say this weather front will completely turn the tables on our traditional dismissal of driving metrics around TPC Summerlin, but I do find myself more receptive than ever to a particular style of driver than I would be in most Shriners iterations. As cold/windy temps will likely have the most impact on distance, only a select subset of players capable of hitting the ball far enough to supersede the weather. I believe a very compelling case can be made for bombers this week -- particularly if they've proven unsusceptible to the big miss. Like last week, TPC Summerlin will not hesitate to bite back if your ball finds its way into the native desert area.
As I alluded to in the driving section, the most tangible effect of this forecasted weather will be in how far the ball travels in the air. As such, I do see a potential adjustment needed in our projected proximity ranges. Typically, TPC Summerlin ranks among the heaviest wedge courses on the PGA Tour (>42% of approach shots coming from inside of 150 yards). This week, I could easily see that number dipping down below 40% -- a number more in-line with the Tour average.
I'm therefore much more enticed by a general view on approach play this week, as the difference between short, middle, and long-irons will be much less pronounced than in past Shriners iterations. I'll still be using wedge play as a key metric, but 150-200 yard approach splits will also be included in my proximity modeling.
No matter how you divvy up the different allocations in your modeling, however, approach play should still remain king at TPC Summerlin. Top five finishers have gained an average of 37.5% of their total strokes for the week with their iron play (4.32/11.58), and none of the last four champions in Vegas have finished worse than seventh in their respective fields on approach.
As we move into the short game, I'd once again be ready to spin my typical yarn besmirching around the green play and propping up putting in a trademarked race to 20-under par. However, one thing that does become interesting in this week's handicap is TPC Summerlin's surprisingly difficult greenside surrounds.
In fact, since 2015, only Augusta National, TPC River Highlands, and Muirfield Village have ranked as more difficult annual Tour stops to gain strokes around the greens. The scrambling percentage here sits well below Tour average (55.8%), despite having some of the easiest greens to putt on inside of 15 feet, and as Viktor Hovland (lost 8.9 strokes ARG in 2022), or Emiliano Grillo (lost 7.2 combined strokes ARG in back-to-back starts from 2021-22), could tell you, these chipping areas can wreak absolute havoc on an under-developed short game.
These impediments only serve to throw more gasoline on the fire for those projected to see the worst of the wind on Thursday PM/Friday AM, as I'd expect the historic GIR % of 73.3% to take a nosedive in those conditions. For the week as a whole, however, I do think it's worth adding chipping/short game metrics into your modeling for the first time all fall.
The greens themselves at TPC Summerlin don't inspire the same level of fear as the surrounding chipping areas, actually ranking as the eighth-easiest set of green complexes to gain strokes putting. However, their straightforwardness should not undermine the historic importance of a hot putter in winning the Shriners title.
Top five finishers here have gained just under 35% of their total strokes on the greens, and four of the last five Champions in Summerlin have attained that title on the back of a top-seven putting performance in the field (each gaining a minimum of 5.5 strokes in the process).
The most similar greens agronomically to what players will face this week are actually those of last week's Black Desert Resort Championship (as most other desert courses we visit earlier in the season feature over-seeded strains of Bermudagrass as opposed to bent). I do believe there's an angle to be found in players that were particularly comfortable with the flat stick a week ago, but on the other hand, I don't see these greens being nearly nuanced enough to preclude a putter in lesser form from figuring things out.
As is usually the case in my betting process, I'd much prefer to isolate players with the ball-striking ceilings necessary to give them multiple outs to contend this week as opposed to them needing to rely strictly on an outlier putting week.
Shriners Open Betting Card
Seamus Power (33-1)
𝙄𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙨 from perfection 🎯
Seamus Power gets an eagle and birdie on his last two holes to move inside the projected cutline. pic.twitter.com/4M3HtywulE
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 12, 2024
Despite coming in as one of the preeminent favorites at last week's Black Desert Championship, Seamus Power's 11th-place result may come as a bit of a surprise to much of the general public. He never threatened to cash a ticket for his outright backers, but rounds of 64, 68, 65 over his final three days in Utah speaks to a player on the rise, and one very capable of racking up the birdies necessary to capture a Swing Season contest.
Power's solid result continues a run of three straight PGA Tour results of 11th or better (dating back to the opening leg of the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs), as well as a stretch of seven top 30 finishes in nine worldwide starts since July's U.S. Open.
By the numbers, Seamus has attained these results on the back of an all-around attack. He ranks inside the top 25 in three of the four strokes gained categories over his last 36 rounds (APP, ARG, Putting), and profiles as a top 30 driver of the ball when isolating for accuracy.
The Irishman is no stranger to conquests on shorter golf courses (and weaker fields), as his two PGA wins to date have come at Keene Trace and Port Royal Golf Club, and top-five performances in Sea Island, Bermuda, and Punta Cana speak to a player who won't be deterred by sustained winds. Coming in at 33-1, off of the third-best approach week of his season (+5.9), and a much-coveted Thursday AM tee time, Power profiles as a perfect "bounce-back" candidate after being one of last week's most popular selections.
Eric Cole (40-1)
Eric Cole nearly aces the 17th, making birdie to go 18-under atop the @ShrinersOpen leaderboard. 👏
📺: @peacock & @NBCSports app | via @PGATOURpic.twitter.com/AP2LNlDuet
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 15, 2023
Speaking of a player flying high off of a recent approach performance, you won't find many players on any week feeling as good as Eric Cole must feel with his iron play. Cole's breakout 2023 campaign already established him as one of the best up-and-coming iron players on Tour, but at no point last season was he able to do what he did in Jackson two weeks ago.
In a 16th-place result at the Sanderson Farms, Cole gained an incredible TEN strokes to the field on approach: a mark that bested the week's second-best iron player (Gary Woodland), by 2.5 shots and bested Cole's previous best approach week (2023 Fortinet), by 3.8 strokes.
It will be difficult to replicate this sort of ball-striking performance, but Cole did show 12 months ago that he's capable of pacing a field from tee-to-green at TPC Summerlin -- gaining 11.3 strokes from tee-to-green and 6.0 on approach in a third-place finish.
Had he not lost over a stroke on the greens 12 months ago, we could very well be talking about Eric Cole as a PGA Tour winner. I think the pieces are still very much in place a year later, and this 40-1 price tag doesn't nearly encapsulate the upside of a player who's logged five top-20 results in his last nine starts.
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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Ben Griffin (50-1)
🚨👀⛳️ #59 WATCH — Ben Griffin will need to go -2 over his final two holes to shoot 59. He’s currently -10 on the day. pic.twitter.com/rlZMAs4U23
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) July 7, 2024
Anytime the argument can be made for a profile that forgoes off-the-tee reliability for elite Driving/Putting upside (a profile used by both J.T. Poston and Eric Cole in contending efforts last year), you can find me looking in the direction of Ben Griffin. He, like Power, will make the short trip from Utah on the back of an unassuming 11th-place finish at the Black Desert Championship, recording the third-best approach week of his season (+5.2), in the process.
Maybe more notably, Griffin also happened to gain strokes off of the tee for the first time since July's Scottish Open on a golf course with a similar combination of forgiving landing areas and perilous propositions to those who stray off of the beaten path. Although he came up as a bit of a Bermudagrass specialist, Griffin recorded the two best putting weeks of his entire season on bentgrass courses (TPC Deere Run & Hamilton GC), and ranks as the third-best iron player in this field over his last 36 rounds.
I know any mention of a Ben Griffin outright will receive scoffs from segments of the golf betting public, but my numbers continue to point to him as one of the premier breakout candidates in this Swing Season roster. Given his favorable draw on the tee sheet and a profile that has proven time and time again to be built for success in Summerlin, there's no way he should be priced at the 50-1s currently available on market.
Austin Eckroat (75-1)
Leader by 3.
Austin Eckroat extends his lead @The_Cognizant with a birdie on No. 16. pic.twitter.com/gVj5caCSJo
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 4, 2024
His 2024 campaign may have come to a screeching halt with a nearly dead-last, 46th-place result at the BMW Championship, but at 75-1, I feel books have gone a bridge too far in accessing Austin Eckroat's chances this week.
After all, the mere fact that Eckroat was invited into the Tour's penultimate event of its playoffs is a distinction that only eight other players in this field can claim, and before those four days in Colorado, Eckroat would have been considered one of the more in-form commodities at the back of that week's betting board.
His two prior starts in Greensboro and Memphis netted finishes of sixth and 18th for the Oklahoma State alum -- adding to an impressive calendar year as a whole that included his first Tour win, his first Major Championship top 20 (PGA), and a six-month ball-striking run that placed him among some of the finest players in the sport from a strokes gained perspective (Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, etc.).
With company like that, it should come as no surprise that Eckroat is one of the preeminent players in this week's field when it comes to total driving/approach play. He's one of just three players in this field to rank inside of the top 20 in SG: OTT, Fairways Gained, and Good Drive %, and sits behind only Doug Ghim and Kevin Yu when it comes to gaining strokes on approach from 150-200 yards.
Unlike those notable flushers, however, Eckroat has shown a proclivity to gain strokes in bunches on the greens. The season-long stats do admittedly leave a bit to be desired, but on five separate occasions in 2024, Eckroat has managed to gain at least 3.5 strokes on the greens. That kind of volatility is exactly what I'm looking for in an outright proposition -- especially when the ball-striking baselines are so ingrained.
In-Tournament Strategy
With these four names on the card, we're still left with ~40% of our weekly budget to use on in-tournament additions. This section will outline a few names to monitor in the live markets, as well as a few potential angles to use when assessing player viability over the course of the week.
- In general, the swing season isn’t known for placing a great number of impediments in front of the world’s best, and TPC Summerlin is no different in that regard. 14 of the 18 holes here have conceded birdies at a >15% clip, and only six holes on property have historically played over par. Of those six, only the 3rd, 8th, and 17th holes are ones I'd classify as "Bogey Avoidance Opportunities," where par would cut the average field by at least a tenth of a stroke.
- The 492-yard 3rd is far and away the most daunting: conceding a birdie or better just 11.4% of the time whilst carrying a 27.3% bogey or worse rate. It's one of the few holes on property where I'd expect players to have to hit a green in regulation with a long iron, and with a scoring average of 4.21, the 3rd is certainly a nice hole to have in your back pocket when monitoring potential live-adds.
- Breaking down the two nines individually, it's clear that the abundance of scoring opportunities at TPC Summerlin are present on its back nine. Two of the three Par 5's here (each carrying a BoB rate >40%), are on the inward half, as well as the drivable Par 4 15th that plays to a 3.6 scoring average and concedes a birdie or better at a whopping 45% rate. The back nine also features just one of the four toughest holes on the course (17), while the front nine includes four of the six toughest; including the aforementioned 3rd and 8th that play to a cumulative scoring average of 0.34 strokes over par.
- As such, I'd be very weary at buying high on players starting on the inward half of the golf course (10-18), as once they make the turn onto the 1st hole, they aren't likely to see a clear-cut birdie hole until the final hole of the front side (Par 5 9th). Instead, I'd be focusing a lot more of my attention on players starting on the more difficult side. The two nines play nearly a shot apart relative to par (-0.34 vs -1.33), so if you can find a player making the turn onto the back-nine at (-1) or (-2), they could provide a decent value proposition versus some of the hotter starters working their way from 10-18.
With this said, here are a few Thursday AM starters that my numbers liked, and could present a value opportunity in Round 1:
- Charley Hoffman (10:17 am)
- Rico Hoey (10:17 am)
- Taylor Pendrith (10:28 am)*
- Lee Hodges (10:39 am)
- Jhonattan Vegas (10:39 am)*
- J.T. Poston (10:39 am)*
- Daniel Berger (10:50 am)
(*) indicates a player going off of the back-nine
Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!
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