RADIO
This week we have a familiar course and setting as TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada, is once again set to host the Shriners Open. We are fortunate to have seen several renditions of this event during the Fall swing and I believe it gives us a proper layout and strategy for finding the players that are best suited for success in the Las Vegas desert.
This is one of the rare courses that really prioritizes precision and accuracy over pure power. The architectural intricacies make it very difficult to access certain pin locations and funnel points on the greens if you are not in the fairway, and the penalty for a big miss is often times a drop from the rocks. We have Tom Kim returning to TPC Summerlin this week, headlining the field as back-to-back champion in search of making it three wins in a row at Summerlin!
As always, my primary goal with this article is to give you a place to start your research and preparation for the upcoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most here. Without further ado, Here are my top 10 players for the Shriners Open
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No. 10 - Matt McCarty
If you thought that Matt McCarty came out of nowhere to win the first-ever Black Desert Championship last week, then you haven't been paying much attention to the Korn Ferry Tour this summer because this guy has been a machine. He just posted his fourth professional win since July, three of which came on the Korn Ferry Tour and the Black Desert Championship win was just his third career PGA Tour start.
We still don't have quite enough strokes gained data to project the best possible course fits for McCarthy, but last week should be a pretty good indication that he is well suited for success once again in the desert this week. We will have to wait and see if there will be a hangover from last week's victory, but the Scottsdale, Arizona native is primed to quickly accrue a ton of success on the big stage.
297 yards to 3 feet 😤@MattMcCarty21 sticks it on the drivable par-4 14th @BDChampionship. pic.twitter.com/ZggL7fBHmn
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 13, 2024
No. 9 - Kurt Kitayama
The former UNLV Runnin' Rebel Kurt Kitayama is ready for a home game this week as he still makes his primary residence in Las Vegas. He's coming off a T25 finish last week at the Black Desert Championship last week but the end result doesn't tell the entire story for the week that Kitayama has.
He gained an outrageous +10.5 on approach for the week with his irons. If he had not lost nearly eight strokes putting, he would have been right at the top of the leaderboard with a great opportunity to get the win last Sunday. He has not historically played well at the Shriners, but there is no doubt that he's one of the best players in the field from tee to green and could be a Vegas force to be reckoned with at Summerlin if his irons stay red hot.
No. 8 - Adam Hadwin
There is arguably no player in the field besides last year's Champion Tom Kim who has had more consistent success at TPC Summerlin than Adam Hadwin. He's posted four top-10 finishes at this event since 2019, including last year's solo second place. It should be no surprise that he easily ranked 2nd in the field in terms of strokes gained total at TPC Summerlin.
Hadwin isn't necessarily known for his driving accuracy, but he always seems to find the fairway often TPC Summerlin. This is clearly one of the stops on the PGA Tour schedule where he feels most comfortable and I feel OK about ignoring some of the recent form based on his history at this event. At some point, I'm sure this will end in a missed cut at high ownership, but I'm going to need to see it to believe it.
No. 7 - Stephan Jaeger
If it hadn't been for a couple of fortunate bounces off the rocks on Sunday for McCarty, then Stephan Jeager could have found himself picking up his second PGA Tour trophy in the last six months. He ended up finishing in solo 2nd place, continuing to build on his impressive end-of-season run where Jeager has been putting the lights out lately.
He also had a great week with his irons in Utah, which is a huge step in the right direction as he had been struggling for quite some time at giving himself opportunities to cash in with his approach play. This marks Jeagers third consecutive week teeing it up, and I expect he's bringing a boatload of confidence to Las Vegas this week given his recent form and results.
Going low in the desert 🌵
Stephan Jaeger leads by one @BDChampionship. pic.twitter.com/7jYmbRSwXL
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 12, 2024
No. 6. Keith Mitchell
He's been the best player from tee to green in the entire field lately, and the margin between him and 2nd place is not particularly close. Of course, I'm referring to the enigma that is Keith Mitchell, who despite having the most dialed-in form of any player in the field, can't seem to capitalize and get himself across the finish line with a victory.
I wasn't too surprised that he missed the cut at the Black Desert Championship last week after his heartbreaking three-putt to end the Sanderson Farms Championship. That said, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he jumps right back in the saddle this week and continues to flush it. There is no doubt that his stats are elite, but do you believe he can actually come through and win despite the recent scar tissue is the question?
No. 5 - Seamus Power
Seamus Power surging back into proper form is something I have been seeing in the data tables and after his third consecutive top-11 finish last week, he looks primed to get himself back into contention this week in Las Vegas where he makes his home. Power has been really good with his all-around game, but just flashed his best week since last summer with his irons in Utah.
I think he has the ability to win this tournament, but I naturally seem to breeze right past him on the oddsboard when I see him listed in the 30/1 range. It's worth noting that he did miss the cut at this tournament in 2022 when he last played and Power was super popular in DFS that week because of his regional ties. From a betting perspective, I can't get there, but you certainly can't ignore the recent trending form.
No. 4 - Tom Hoge
As a general rule of thumb, if a golf course has a much higher percentage of shots coming from within 150 yards on approach than a normal PGA Tour event, then you should probably consider backing Tom Hoge to win the said event. He nearly did just that in 2022 at TPC Summerlin and he ranks top 10 in the field in strokes gained total at this course since 2018.
Hoge is coming off a solid T7 at the Procore Championship in his first event played this Fall, but has taken the last month off. It's no surprise that he chose to return this week at a golf course that perfectly suits his game of hitting fairways and sticking wedges close. Hoge carries a good bit of win equity into this event and he's the caliber of player that I would imagine is a pretty safe play in DFS and in matchup betting.
No. 3 - Davis Thompson
I wrote up Davis Thompson a number of times this past summer, and I'm on record that I think he has breakthrough superstar potential in 2025. His ability to hit the driver long and straight, but also combine that with an incredible short game is what often has him in contention to win tournaments against the best of fields.
Thompson has played this tournament in each of the last two seasons and has managed to gain nearly 10 strokes total over those starts. He's -27 at TPC Summerlin since 2022 and we know that if he can bring a net positive putting performance to Las Vegas this week, Thompson has as good of a chance as anybody to notch another PGA Tour win. This guy is a stud.
25 year old Davis Thompson shoots rounds of 63, 67, 62 and 64 for a TWENTY EIGHT UNDER total to win his first ever PGA Tour event in just his 63rd start. The winner also qualifies him for The Open Championship at Royal Troon and the 2025 Masters 🙌
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) July 7, 2024
No. 2 - Taylor Pendrith
I know that some people were hard on Pendrith after his performance at the Presidents Cup, but I was actually quite impressed with how he played given the circumstances. I really believe this guy is a winner. He has all the tools. Pendrith possesses effortless power and was one of the most improved putters on the entire PGA Tour last year.
Pendrith finished in the tie for third place at the Shrines Open in 2023, and I think he can beat that mark in 2024. He's extremely underrated as a wedge player and actually ranks better stat-wise than Tom Hoge from inside of 150 yards over the last 30 rounds played. It's easy to take Tom Kim to win again this week, but the next guy in line for me is definitely Taylor Pendrith!
No. 1 - Tom Kim
The Presidents Cup once again reminded us what a true present we have in getting to watch Tom Kim have fun and play professional golf. He's one of the most likable stars we have seen on the PGA Tour in quite some time, and we know he has the game to back it up. His ability to consistently groove his driver down the middle of the fairway and hit close approach shots is what separates him from most of the competition.
We also have seen what a good putter Kim is under pressure, which is so important when you are searching for picks in the outright betting markets. He's won this tournament in back-to-back seasons and is here once again to defend his crown in Las Vegas. Kim was a clear-cut number one player in the power rankings this week! No brainer.
Tom Kim is the headliner for next week’s Shriners Children’s Open, where the 22-year-old will be trying for a three-peat at TPC Summerlin.https://t.co/h0sTx9hREu
— Las Vegas Review-Journal (@reviewjournal) October 13, 2024
Enjoy the Shriners Open and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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