The Cut List - Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 7

Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make better, more informed decisions. That’s crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early in the season can be demoralizing. However, the only thing worse than making a mistake is not being able to admit we made one in the first place.

Don’t be afraid to make bold decisions, but be careful not to be too reactionary. Bad weeks are going to happen. Sometimes, opportunity doesn’t always translate into box-score success. The flip side of that is true, too. Sometimes, the box score can look amazing despite poor utilization. This article will help you determine who to send packing and how to value players whose value is falling.

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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Cut for Week 7

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – 97.3% Rostered

Is Mahomes truly cuttable? He has yet to score 17 points in a game this season. He has scored under 13.5 points in three out of five games this season. Bo Nix, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr are averaging more PPG than Mahomes.

Mahomes PPG average is closer to Deshaun Watson than to C.J. Stroud, QB14 on the season. Since Week 8 of last season, 14 games, Mahomes has scored 18 or more points in just one contest. Is it challenging to cut someone of Mahomes' stature? Of course.

Since the beginning of the 2023 season, top-10 fantasy finishes:

🐐 Patrick Mahomes- 5 in 21 starts
👴 Joe Flacco- 5 in 7 starts
😎 Kirk Cousins- 7 in 13 start

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) October 11, 2024

How much longer are fantasy managers supposed to ignore what we've now seen for almost one year's worth of time? Does Mahomes still have a ceiling? There's no denying his greatness on Sunday, but there are now questions regarding his fantasy football greatness.

Cutting Mahomes may not be an option if you play in a league where every team is rostering two quarterbacks, but Mahomes is far from a set-it-and-forget-it quarterback. If his name were anything other than Mahomes, cutting him would have happened after Rashee Rice was lost for the season.

Other Players to Cut:

• Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets - 54.0% Rostered
• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers - 36.3% Rostered
• DeShaun Watson, Cleveland Browns - 20.5% Rostered

Fantasy Football Running Backs to Cut for Week 7

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns – 77.9% Rostered

Ford's inclusion on the cut list may seem a bit bold, but several things have been working against him recently. Superstar Nick Chubb is expected to return to action in Week 7, complicating Ford's role and workload. Fantasy managers should expect Chubb to operate as Cleveland's early-down grinder and goal-line back. To make matters even worse, Ford was hurt in Week 6 and did not return to the game.

Kevin Stefanski said RB Jerome Ford will be week to week due to his hamstring injury.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 14, 2024

Now that Ford is expected to miss at least 1-2 weeks, it'll be difficult for fantasy managers to hold onto him. Even without Chubb being active, Ford is very hit-or-miss for fantasy managers with a low ceiling. He's scored double-digit points in half-PPR, scoring just two out of six weeks.

Even before Week 6, Ford was averaging just 9.9 half-PPR PPG. That was enough to give him flex appeal, but since Chubb will be active upon Ford's return, it'll be difficult for Ford to maintain that level of fantasy value moving forward.

The Cleveland offense has been one of, if not the worst, in the NFL. With the team's already limited scoring opportunities, Chubb's return will further lessen the chances that Ford will find the end zone. There's a chance that Chubb is far from his former self, which could allow Ford to stay involved.

Ford isn't a "have to" cut, but he's someone you can cut. If you want to wait and see how this backfield plays out with Chubb's return, that's understandable, however it's hard to envision Ford maintaining fantasy relevance.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans – 66.0% Rostered

Fantasy managers expected Spears to have some standalone value despite the team's signing of Tony Pollard. Based on how the coaching staff talked about these two backs, it appeared throughout the preseason that this would be some committee. Through the team's first four weeks of the season, Spears had handled only 27 carries compared to Tony Pollard's 61.

Pollard had also out-targeted Spears, 16 to 12. Pollard had significantly out-snapped Spears. Pollard also received more carries, ran more routes, earned more targets, and was used as the team's primary goal-line back.

Spears hasn't been a part of a running back committee so much but instead is Pollard's backup running back. Spears had weeks of 5.2, 4.1, 8.1, and 10.9 half-PPR points through the season's first four weeks. In his lone double-digit scoring game, Spears found the end zone.

With Pollard playing as well as he is, Spears holds very little standalone weekly value. His value, after Week 6, has only decreased. That's because Spears hurt his hamstring.

#Titans coach Brian Callahan tells reporters that RB Tyjae Spears is considered week-to-week with a hamstring injury, likely meaning he’ll miss time.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 14, 2024

With Spears now expected to miss 1-2 weeks, Spears can safely be cut. Now, he shouldn't be viewed as anything more than Pollard's handcuff. That's quite the decline in fantasy value from where he was valued throughout the preseason. There was a belief that Spears could overtake Pollard, but at this point, that is very far-fetched.

Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts – 47.8% Rostered

Jonathan Taylor has missed the past two weeks, which gave Sermon two starts as Indy's primary running back. In Week 5, he scored 15.3 half-PPR points but was pretty inefficient. He finished with just 38 yards on ten carries but luckily found the end zone for fantasy managers.

He also caught six of his six targets for 25 targets, further increasing his point total. This past weekend, Sermon was, once again, very inefficient with his touches. He had 18 carries for 29 yards.

This time, however, he didn't score a touchdown or have any catches (or targets, for that matter) to help inflate his fantasy point total. Without that, he finished with just 2.9 half-PPR points. Taylor is expected to return this week, which would decimate Sermon's fantasy value. He goes back to being nothing more than a handcuff and, based on his two-week audition, a lackluster one.

Other Players to Cut:

• Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders – 52.2% Rostered
• Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys – 42.4% Rostered

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Cut for Week 7

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans – 81.8% Rostered

Ridley has just 14 receiving yards in his last three games. Over that period, Ridley has 14 targets, two receptions, 14 yards, zero touchdowns, and 4.3 half-PPR points. You're likely wondering how it could be that bad. Ridley's skill and fantasy value dating back to the preseason was overrated, and Will Levis is "that" bad.

Just 47.4% of Ridley's targets have been deemed catchable. There's no way any receiver can be successful with that kind of quarterback play.

To make matters worse, how Ridley is deployed shouldn't give fantasy managers much hope. His average depth of target is 19.5 yards, which is the second-highest among qualifying receivers. Targets this far down the field have a smaller chance of being caught. It's even smaller when the guy throwing them is Levis.

Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns – 52.4% Rostered

For reasons unknown, the Browns appear fully committed to Watson. Considering the amount of money they still owe him, the front office likely has difficulty admitting defeat. However, the evidence is clear.

#Browns have had a soft schedule so far - DAL, JAX, NYG, LV, WAS, PHI. Deshaun Watson ranks dead last in:

* Passing success rate
* Yards per attempt
* QBR
* Sacks taken

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 14, 2024

With just how poorly Watson plays, the entire Browns' passing offense takes a massive hit.

Until they make a quarterback change, which doesn't seem to be coming anytime soon, the only player who can be started with some semblance of confidence is tight end David Njoku. Amari Cooper is a boom-or-bust player whose peripherals look strong, but the production has been dragged down by a quarterback who can't play the quarterback role.

Other Players to Cut:

• Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers – 60.5% Rostered
• Mike Williams, New York Jets – 33.0% Rostered

Fantasy Football Tight Ends to Cut for Week 7

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens – 59.1% Rostered

Likely had 12 targets, nine receptions, 111 yards, and one touchdown in Week 1. He scored 21.6 half-PPR points. Since then, Likely has 13 targets, nine receptions, 96 yards, and two touchdowns. He's scored below four half-PPR points in four of his last five games. He scored 14.8 half-PPR points in Week 5 but finished with just three receptions and 13 yards. He just happened to fall into the end zone twice.

Likely has run a route on just 55.0% of Baltimore's dropbacks. This ranks 25th among tight ends. He's 17th in targets and target share among tight ends. From Weeks 2-6, Likely is averaging 4.7 expected half-PPR PPG. This ranks 31st among tight ends during this time. There are better options on the waiver wire.

Uh-Oh...

Devin Singletary, New York Giants – 78.5% Rostered

Singletary hasn't done anything wrong. It's not his fault he finds himself in the "uh-oh..." category. This has more to do with how well Tyrone Tracy Jr. has played in his two-game absence.

Before his injury, Singletary was operating as a bell-cow running back. He handled most of the team's backfield snaps, routes, and touches before his injury. After Tracy played the way he did, it'll be interesting to see what the split looks like once he returns.

Tyrone Tracy Jr Week 6

- 84% snaps
- 17 carries, 50 yds, TD
- 29 routes
- 6 targets, 6 rec, 57 yds (tied for NYG lead in rec and rec yds)
- 22.7 fantasy points

Current RB5 on the week. He's not just gonna go away when Singletary returns

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 14, 2024

It's hard to imagine the team putting Tracy back into the bottle after the way he played. Singletary had averaged 12.6 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 1-3. He also averaged 14 carries per game during the first three weeks.

He was providing fantasy managers with solid RB2 production, but should Tracy cut into his workload, Singletary could drop down to being a flex player. As the season moves along, it's also possible Tracy moves ahead of Singletary.

On the Hot Seat

Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals – 85.2% Rostered

Moss's playing time and rushing share have decreased in recent weeks. Chase Brown's rushing share started at 25% in Weeks 1 and 2 before increasing to 36.8% in Week 3, 50.0% in Week 4, 57.1% in Week 5, and 62.5% this past week. Brown has been the better and more explosive player, which has led to Brown's role increasing.

Subsequently, Moss's role and fantasy value have decreased. He entered Week 6 with an ankle injury, which could have had something to do with Brown's more prominent role this past weekend.

However, it was trending that way even before the injury. Moss's ankle injury may have solidified it, but if it didn't, his third-quarter fumble certainly did. Moss fumbled on the opening drive of last night's third quarter and didn't get another touch.

Brown handled all seven running back touches the rest of the way. Brown is unlikely to become a bell-cow running back, but Moss's days as a fantasy starter look done. He'll likely get 7-10 touches a game, keeping on the RB4 radar, but his fantasy value has taken a major hit.

Hold On

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers – 97.2% Rostered

Aiyuk has been one of the biggest disappointments through the season's first six weeks. He's scored less than 7.5 half-PPR points in five of his six games. He has only eclipsed 50 receiving yards in one game this season. Based on the fantasy production and the box score, Aiyuk looks like the distant No. 3 option in the 49ers' passing attack. However, a closer look tells us we should be holding tight.

Last year, Aiyuk averaged 6.7 targets per game. Through six games this year, he's averaging 6.8 targets per game. Aiyuk's catch rate from 2020-2023 was 67.4%. His career catch rate is 66.4%. His lowest catch rate from 2020-2023 was 62.5%. Eliminating his rookie season in 2020, his lowest catch rate from 2021-2023 was 66.7%. His 2024 catch rate is just 56.1%. That isn't entirely Aiyuk's fault either.

Catchable Target Rate

2024 : 62.2%

2023: 74.3%

2022: 85.0%

2021: 82.4%

2020: 72.9%

Another clear outlier season.

— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) October 11, 2024

Aiyuk's catchable target rate is far lower this season than any other season. His lowest catchable target rate from 2020-2023 was 72.9%. He's more than ten percentage points below that this season. Assuming these numbers progress to the mean, we should also see Aiyuk's fantasy production increase.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – 73.8% Rostered

Deshaun Watson has been dreadful, downright putrid. That is keeping Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy from being startable assets. However, the bar for fantasy relevancy is much lower at tight end. At tight end, volume can still carry the day because of how dreadful and downright putrid the tight end position has been this season.

Week 6 TE Fantasy Usage
1. Evan PPRscamgram (11.2 exp half PPR)
2. George Kittle (10.6)
3. Brock Bowers (10.2)
4. David Njoku (9.7) (we're close)
5. Trey McBride (9.5)
6. Cole Kmet (8.9)
7. Cade Otton (8.7)
8. Jake Ferg Daddy (8.5)

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 14, 2024

Njoku is still returning from a high-ankle sprain, but he posted the fourth-highest expected half-PPR point totals in Week 6 among tight ends. He also had a 30.4% target share, the highest among tight ends this past week.

As he gets healthier, his production should increase. Watson will keep him from reaching his ceiling, but as long as the volume remains as strong as last week, he's worth holding onto. He's one of the few tight ends with elite target volume.

The Parameters

There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We'll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.

The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…,” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut … yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.

The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament.

These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.

One of the final categories we'll sometimes touch on is "Hold On." These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold onto them.

On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable.

These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”

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