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It's that time of week again when we examine the matchups at the running back position to help us set our weekly lineups.
It's hard to believe that we are entering Week 6 of the NFL season, a week in which Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones, and De'Von Achane are all on their bye weeks as the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings take a break from the grind.
Let's keep the introduction short as we have plenty to cover in this week's RotoBaller starts and sits at the running back position for Week 6.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Week 6 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
We were led to believe that Breece Hall would be a must-start option every week. That has yet to be the case in 2024. Last week, he was on my must-sit list, which proved correct after he ran for just 23 yards on nine attempts in London against the Minnesota Vikings and has just 27 total rushing yards in the last two weeks.
Last week, Garrett Wilson finally seemed to get back on track. He was the primary option in this Jets offense, seeing 22 targets and a 42% target share in London.
Now, you have to figure that the Jets will want to get their Pro Bowl back on track this week, especially in a matchup that has favored running backs all season. Buffalo has allowed 855 total yards and six touchdowns to opposing backs this season, leading to a league-high 34.3 fantasy points per game against.
This coming Monday on prime time, all eyes will be on Hall, who was averaging nearly 97 yards per game over the first three weeks before everything went south these past two contests.
With the frequency in which the Bills have allowed backs to contribute in the passing game, this is the area I expect the Jets to attack. In Weeks 1 and 2, Hall saw a 20.7% and 27.6% target share, respectively, followed by 14.7%, 12.2%, and finally 7.8% the following three weeks.
If the Texans' Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale can combine for 72 yards on the ground and 62 receiving yards (134 total yards) along with a touchdown, then Hall should be on a trajectory to regain elite running back status this week.
Bijan Robinson - RB, Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Like Hall, you would think we could leave Bijan Robinson as a start every week at running back. However, that has been far from a given thus far this season. So far this season, Robinson leads the Falcons with 285 rushing yards (17th in the NFL). With all due respect, Tyler Allgeier has looked the part of lead back, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Rubbing salt in the wounds of Robinson managers through five weeks is the fact that if you drafted "the other" B. Robinson in the first round of fantasy drafts back in August, you would have been better off (Bijan Robinson has 67.6 PPR fantasy points; Brian Robinson Jr. has 77.3 PPR fantasy points).
If you accidentally drafted Brian Robinson Jr. In the 1st round of fantasy drafts, congratulations, that was the right pick.
— Matt Donnelly (@MattDonnellyFF) October 2, 2024
Robinson has been fine this season. He's currently the RB18 this season, averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game, and he faces a Panthers team allowing 31.5 fantasy points per outing. His lack of fantasy production can be summed up by his lone rushing score, which shouldn't be a problem this week, considering Carolina allows two touchdowns per game to opposing backs.
Sometimes, all we need is a little patience.
Josh Jacobs - RB, Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
I still do not know how I feel about Josh Jacobs. In a great matchup last week against the Los Angeles Rams, a team allowing a league-high 621 rushing yards to backs this season, Jacobs would finish with just 73 yards on 19 attempts and his first touchdown as a Packer.
Bounces off the D and runs it in! @iAM_JoshJacobs gets the job done 😤
📺: #GBvsLAR on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/OynAN3bYDW— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Only five teams allowed more fantasy points per game against than the Rams, who averaged 26.3. This week's opponent isn't among those five teams, but the Arizona Cardinals aren't far behind, sitting eighth in fantasy points allowed (25.18).
Only the Rams have surrendered more than the 612 rushing yards the Cardinals have yielded thus far this season. Arizona has been guilty of allowing 749 yards and six touchdowns to backs in five contests.
Head coach Matt LaFleur seems to hate having workhorse backs, but in Week 5, Jacobs led the way with a 76% rush share, which could mean more significant days are ahead. Or perhaps LaFleur is trolling us all again, which it feels he has done much of the season. Jacobs is the current RB24, averaging 11.9 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Proceed with caution.
Week 6 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
Brian Robinson Jr. is making his second appearance on the "sit" list in as many weeks. I had him as a sit last week, and the reasoning was sound. Cleveland was a tough matchup for opposing backs. However, despite just 2.6 yards per carry on seven rushing attempts, Robinson managed to hit paydirt … twice.
This week, the Commanders and Robinson face a Ravens defense that ranks in the top five in fantasy regarding running back futility. During the season, Baltimore is allowing just 18.04 fantasy points per game and has yielded 240 yards rushing to backs, which is the third-fewest.
After watching Robinson play last week, if you were looking at the sidelines, you would see that he was clearly in pain. Do not be surprised if the Commanders use much of the week to rest Robinson's knee to have him as healthy as possible for this one.
Baltimore allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game and the second-most passing yards, so you can look at this game script as one that would favor Austin Ekeler more than Robinson.
Robinson ranks inside the top 10 in yards after contact (third), yards after contact per attempt (second), elusive rating (fifth), and rushing yards (10th). As good as he has been, it may not be enough this week.
Most underrated RB in the NFL right now:
Brian Robinson Jr.
- 10th in rushing yards
- 3rd in yards after contact
- 2nd in yards after contact per attempt
- 4th in breakaway run percentage
- Tied 4th with most runs over 15+ yards
- 5th in elusive ratingHaving a breakout year. pic.twitter.com/lFihaFZzph
— Joel Moran (@joelvmoran) October 1, 2024
Travis Etienne - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (London)
Could there be a change of guard in Duval County?
For the second straight week, Tank Bigsby outcarried Travis Etienne Jr., 13 to six, not to mention outgained him by 84 yards on the ground. Bigsby rushed for 90 yards against the Colts in a contest in which Etienne finished with 50 yards.
Now, Etienne did have seven targets and a 20.6% target share, so in PPR, Etienne still carries some value. However, Etienne managers should be concerned by the fact that since Week 3, Bigsby has received each carry inside the 5-yard line, and the former Auburn Tiger led the backfield in snaps for the first time last week.
On tap this weekend is the Chicago Bears, a defense that has been allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game this season to the running back position, 24.06.
Against the Carolina Panthers last week, the Bears allowed Chuba Hubbard to average 7.5 yards per carry on his way to 97 yards and a score in a contest in which the Panthers had to abandon the run game earlier than they would have hoped.
Who am I to argue with the numbers? This season, Bigsby ranks first in rushing yards over expectation and yards per carry thanks to his 50% success rate on the ground. I'm certainly not going to take head coach Doug Pederson's word for it.
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on whether Tank Bigsby will replace Travis Etienne atop the depth chart:
“No, not at all. Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game, that’s just the way games go.”
Pederson has a 35% reliability rating on depth chart coachspeak pic.twitter.com/GALzbYRd4C
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 6, 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
My opinion on this may change if Texans Pro Bowl pass-catcher Nico Collins misses this week's contest with that hamstring injury that forced him out early last week. On Monday afternoon, Collins' designation had gone from day-to-day to week-to-week.
New England does not have the horses to compete with the Texans offensively. If Houston gets out ahead of the Patriots early, this one could be over before it starts. Against the fifth-softest fantasy defense against the position, a "benched" Stevenson finished with 89 rushing yards on 12 carries.
Houston has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, surrendering just 18.44 per contest, a far cry from the 27.8 that the Dolphins had been allowing.
Keep an eye on those injury reports this week. Stevenson reportedly suffered a knee injury toward the end of the game in that loss to the Dolphins. Postgame, Stevenson said that he didn't expect the injury to be an issue going forward.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, from post-game, on this play: “I just felt a helmet right into my calf. I just had to make sure I was good. And I was. I felt all right to get back out there … and I think I’m good [moving forward].” pic.twitter.com/F0uCNgdc3Q
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) October 7, 2024
If head coach Jerod Mayo says Stevenson is back as the lead, that's when I will officially know to fade him this week. Thanks to fantasy football, I have trust issues, and Mayo compounded those trust issues last week.
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