RADIO
It's hard to believe that the 2024 fantasy baseball season is in the rearview mirror and we now have to look ahead to 2025.
Those who play dynasty leagues always have some eye on the future, but now 2025 is the sole focus. As I've said several times before, there's never a bad time to make moves to improve your team(s) for the upcoming season and beyond. Part of that is identifying player values that are shifting positively or negatively and making the determination of whether to buy, sell, hold, or avoid.
That's what this series over the next several weeks is going to focus on. I'm going position by position, discussing players whose values are rising or falling right now and what we should be doing with them. Leading off this series is the catcher position, which has more intrigue now than it did a few seasons ago.
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Catcher Risers and Fallers for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball
Logan O'Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
At this point, maybe it's time to stop expecting a high AVG and/or OBP from Logan O'Hoppe after being impactful in those categories in the minors. But even without a higher AVG/OBP, O'Hoppe still has the profile of an annual top-10 fantasy catcher, and his perceived value has taken a hit with how poorly he performed down the stretch in 2024.
After being one of the top fantasy catchers during the first half of the season, O'Hoppe found himself dropped in some fantasy leagues in mid to late August, given how poorly he was playing.
And while the second-half numbers overall look downright dreadful, it was really just a terrible August when O'Hoppe slashed .099/.163/.176 with a whopping 44.9% strikeout rate. In September. O'Hoppe rebounded with a .266/.338/.453 slash line.
The strikeout rate will probably always be on the higher end, but O'Hoppe has shown that he can keep it in check more often than not while providing impactful power.
O'Hoppe recorded a 12% barrel rate, 90.4 mph AVG EV, and 46.3% hard-hit rate, marking the second straight season he's been above 12%, 90 mph, and 46%, respectively. He also hit plenty of flyballs and line drives and finished with an elite 42.9% Sweet-Spot rate.
Given his quality of contact and batted ball data, O'Hoppe should be a lock for at least 20 home runs annually and could easily get into the 25-30 range in 2025 and beyond. While his strikeout and contact rates aren't the greatest, O'Hoppe was 77.3% in zone and 66.4% overall, which aren't detrimental. Maybe he's not the .276 hitter we saw in the first half, but an AVG around .250 is certainly possible.
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
It's time to give "Big Dumper" his due. Outside of having one of the best nicknames in the game, Cal Raleigh has become one of the most consistent power sources in the game.
After cranking 34 home runs with 100 RBI in 2024, Raleigh's 91 home runs over the last three seasons are 18 more than any other catcher has during this span. He also ranks fourth in runs, tied for second in RBI, 4th in SLG, and first in ISO.
Cal Raleigh launches his 31st home run of the season to double the @Mariners lead 💪 pic.twitter.com/uSPdNjANPY
— MLB (@MLB) September 22, 2024
When it comes to Raleigh, I understand the hesitancy from most centers around the lower batting AVG. Raleigh hit .232 in 2023, .220 in 2024, and is just a .218 career hitter over his four Major League seasons.
But having one hitter on your team in the .220-.230 range isn't going to kill your overall team AVG, and Raleigh provides more positive value with his power and run production than he provides negative value with his AVG.
Speaking of that power, Raleigh has cemented his status as one of the best power bats in the game, and not just at the catcher position. In 2024, Raleigh posted a 15.4% barrel rate, 91 mph AVG EV, and 48.1% hard-hit rate while being tied for 12th in home runs.
And over the last three seasons, Raleigh is tied for 15th in home runs. At this point, there's zero reason to have him outside any top-5 rank at the catcher position. Raleigh's stock is rising, and I'm buying.
Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets
Given his former top prospect status, Francisco Alvarez's name carries plenty of weight and hype at the catcher position. But after a lackluster 2024 season and terrible showing in the second half, his stock is definitely trending in the wrong way entering 2025.
Overall, Alvarez slashed .237/.307/.403 with 11 home runs in 343 plate appearances in 2024 and slashed .187/.257/.337 in 183 second-half plate appearances.
At this point, is his best-case outcome Cal Raleigh? Sure, that's in the realm of possibilities, but Alvarez isn't quite on the same level as Raleigh for power. Alvarez even saw his power metrics drop in 2024, going from a 12.8% barrel rate, 90.1 mph AVG EV, and 45.1% hard-hit rate in 2023 to a 6.7% barrel rate, 88.8 mph AVG EV, and 42% hard-hit rate in 2024.
However, while his Quality of Contact metrics ticked down, Alvarez increased his zone contact rate and overall contact rate by 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. At this point, I'm projecting Alvarez as a .240/20 type with the upside for more.
If his perceived value has fallen enough in your leagues, I'm not opposed to buying low. But at the same time, I'm probably lower than most on Alvarez and don't see him as a future top-5 catcher for fantasy.
Dalton Rushing, Los Angeles Dodgers
While Dalton Rushing transitioned to the outfield late in the season in Triple-A, he was still seeing starts at catcher and might be able to play enough behind the plate as Will Smith's backup to retain eligibility moving forward.
And if he does, Rushing could become a Top-10 fantasy catcher who plays primarily in the outfield and racks up more plate appearances than most catcher-eligible hitters. That's a beautiful thing for fantasy baseball.
DALTON RUSHING CALLS GAME WITH A WALK-OFF HOME RUN pic.twitter.com/MDlUNHKmEy
— Tulsa Drillers (@TulsaDrillers) August 2, 2024
In 114 games between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Rushing slashed .271/.385/.512 with 21 doubles and 26 home runs. Rushing showed a nice blend of contact and power with a 76.3% contact rate, 90.8 mph AVG EV, 40.6% hard-hit rate, and a 10.4% barrel rate while maintaining his strong approach at the plate as well.
If he's able to secure regular playing time in 2025, Rushing could become a Top-10 fantasy catcher immediately. His stock is definitely on the rise heading into the offseason.
Ethan Salas, San Diego Padres
Around this time last year, I was blue in the face proclaiming that Ethan Salas was criminally overrated and over-ranked in fantasy-focused prospect rankings. That wasn't me denying that he was a talented young catching prospect, but he was pushed to elite ranks, partially due to the Padres pushing him to Double-A as a 17-year-old. But even I wasn't expecting Salas' offensive performance to be this bad this season.
In 469 plate appearances in Hi-A, Salas slashed .206/.288/.311, and his .599 OPS was the 6th worst mark out of the 386 minor leaguers that had at least 450 plate appearances this season. And rightfully so, Salas' prospect ranks plummeted. I have him in the 150 range right now.
I'm not ruling out Salas being a Major League catcher or one with a bright future, but as of now, he's done nothing to show that he's going to be an impact fantasy bat, so I can't put him inside my Top 100 for now.
But should you buy low? That answer is hard to answer as the perceived value for Salas is still all over the place right now. If the price tag is still in the top-100 range, I'd hold off. But if you can get him for a top-150 or lower price tag, I wouldn't be opposed.
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