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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 6 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 6.
This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal will be not to repeat offenses on a week-to-week basis, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that bye weeks are upon us with the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings off in Week 6, reducing the amount of offenses we can highlight.
The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Let’s dig in!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Last Week's Offenses Recap
Week 5 was booming with high-scoring games and big fantasy performances and kicked off with the best Thursday Night Football matchup we've seen in a long time. That one featured two teams hitting 30 or more points. They ended up as two of nine squads to do that, including the Baltimore Ravens who went over 40. Passing was also up with eight signal-callers throwing for at least 300 yards and five tossing at least three touchdowns. Hopefully, that trend continues.
- Baltimore Ravens - 41 points scored (1st)
- Cincinnati Bengals - 38 points scored (2nd)
- Chicago Bears - 36 points scored (tied for 4th)
- Green Bay Packers - 24 points scored (tied for 10th)
- Minnesota Vikings - 23 points scored (tied for 12th)
It was another fantastic week for targeting offenses. We identified the top two offenses on back-to-back weeks, nailing Baltimore and Cincy. Add in the Bears, who finished fourth, and it was about as good as it gets. The Packers and Vikings were both in the top 12 as well. There were a season-high six defensive or special teams touchdowns last week, and for the first time, one of the teams we selected had one, which was the Vikings. Let's keep that momentum rolling in Week 6.
Week 6 Offenses to Target
- Detroit Lions
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
- Washington Commanders
- Atlanta Falcons
Data Tables
Data Table No. 1 - Location
| Location | Average Points Scored |
| Home | 21.88 |
| Road | 20.47 |
Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)
| Offensive Plays Per Game | Average Points Scored |
| Above Average (above 65.0) | 21.42 |
| Average (61.0-65.0) | 20.70 |
| Below Average (under 61.0) | 21.34 |
Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game
| Offensive Touchdowns Per Game | Average Points Scored |
| Above Average (over 2.4) | 27.18 |
| Average (2.2-2.4) | 20.36 |
| Below Average (under 2.2) | 17.88 |
Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game
| Offensive Yards Per Game | Average Points Scored |
| Above Average (over 350) | 26.77 |
| Average (320-250) | 22.96 |
| Below Average (under 320) | 17.34 |
Data Takeaways
As our data set grows, we're seeing some definitive trends. For example, the points scored by the home team have steadily risen since Week 2, which aligns with what we saw by the end of the season last year. We've also seen other subcategories like the "below average" offensive yards per game, the "below average" plays per game, and the "above average" offensive touchdowns per game all remain within a point of their Week 1 output.
Speaking of the "above average" offensive touchdowns per game category, it is the highest number for the fourth straight week at 27.18. However, the "above average" offensive yards per game is not far behind at 26.77, and the gap between the "below average" and "above average" in those metrics is similar. Much like last week, the "average" category is higher in the offensive yards per game metric, so we'll keep targeting teams that fit those parameters.
The plays metric forms a U-shape, whereby the "average" category is a bit lower while the other two are almost identical. The takeaway here is probably to target teams running a lot of plays like we would have in the past but also to incorporate winning teams with a lower play volume because they score early and pound the rock late.
On a positive note, we did see play volume and passing bounce back in Week 5. 14 (50%) of the 28 teams in action ran 65 (above average) or more plays with an overall average of 66.65. Furthermore, only five teams finished with more running plays than passing with the the Bears as the highest at 56%. It's reason for optimism.
Week 6 Offenses and Players to Target
Offense No. 1 - Detroit Lions
Detroit is one of four squads returning from their bye week. While it's always beneficial to have time for players to rest, they probably would've preferred to play last week and keep the momentum they ended with in Week 4 after hanging 42 points on the Seahawks. Nevertheless, they're back at near full health, ready to roll.
Through five weeks, they sit seventh in points per game at 26, fourth in offensive touchdowns per week with 3.25, third in offensive yards with 397, and fourth in plays with 65.5. They're a top-5 offense that we love to target, especially when their opponent can find the end zone too.
Cue the Cowboys, who are coming off a gritty road win against the Steelers. Typically, we'd rather the Lions at Ford Field, but there's a strong chance they'd decimate Dallas at home. So it's for the best that they travel to Arlington. Dak Prescott and Co. aren't too far behind, averaging 23.4 points per game, setting up a potential shootout. The Vegas betting market is of the same thought with a 52-point over/under, the highest of the week.
The obvious: After a scare in Week 1, Amon-Ra St. Brown has proven to fantasy managers he's exactly who they hoped he'd be. He scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks and racked up 11 grabs for 119 yards the week before. Jahmyr Gibbs has been incredibly consistent, scoring in all four contests, but is still due for a ceiling game, which could come against Dallas. Sam LaPorta had his best outing in Week 4, so he'll look to build on that performance.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - David Montgomery may very well belong in the first category. He's been right there with Gibbs as a superb tailback. He's a must-start.
Player No. 2 - Jameson Williams has one bust game, which is bound to happen as the No. 2 wideout in a run-centric offense. He's shown the same home-run hitting ability as last season while adding more volume and consistency, making him a great top-30 receiver.
Player No. 3 - You would assume that when all the pieces around him are successful, Jared Goff will be too. However, it doesn't always work out that way because they're so apt to run the ball in the red zone, particularly near the goal line. That said, he's still a quality streamer that can blow up in a situation like this.
Offense No. 2 - Philadelphia Eagles
Unlike the Lions, the Eagles desperately needed their bye week. They were without A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson in Week 4, and it was ugly. Fortunately, all three returned to practice on Wednesday and should be back out there in Week 6.
Philly's offense is tough to evaluate over the course of the year because of all the injuries. The only time they had everyone mentioned healthy was in Week 1 against Green Bay when they scored 34 points on 74 offensive plays while generating 410 offensive yards and four offensive touchdowns. Those are elite numbers, despite being a one-game sample.
Again we find ourselves selecting a road team, but their opponent is the more important factor because they get the hapless Browns. Cleveland is a complete mess with an unsolvable quarterback conundrum. Their defense is the best part of their team, but their offense is so inept that the defense repeatedly finds themselves in poor spots and eventually wears down. It figures to be a nice bounce-back opportunity for Philly.
The obvious: Jalen Hurts committing eight turnovers has contributed to their 2-2 record, but for fantasy purposes, he's been good most weeks with one great game. You can expect another one of those in Week 6. Saquon Barkley has been a machine, especially with the duo of receivers missing time. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are immediately back in your lineup, especially with bye weeks in full swing.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Dallas Goedert had two fabulous outings as the TE1 and TE7 in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively. With everyone back, his production will take a hit, but it's difficult to find a reliable tight end, so he's still a top-12 option.
Offense No. 3 - San Francisco 49ers
Speaking of disappointing records, the 49ers are sitting at 2-3 after blowing a lead against Arizona on Sunday. They've looked mortal this season and struggled to close out leads. Something that was a staple of this offense in previous years.
Their offensive output has still been decent, ranking 10th in points per game with 25.2, fifth in plays per game at 65, and second in offensive yards at 407.4. Where they've underwhelmed is with offensive touchdowns, averaging only two per contest. They're historically a franchise that scores 30 points regularly, so this version of them is somewhat unprecedented.
The solution may be a date with their division rivals, the Seahawks. They're the ones we mentioned Detroit scoring 42 on in Week 4. They also allowed Daniel Jones and the Giants to win 29-20 in Seattle last week. It's a get-right spot for San Francisco, whose Super Bowl hopes would take a real hit with another loss, creating a sense of urgency.
The obvious: We know the deal by now with this offense. Not everyone will have a great day, but anyone could have a great day, so your best bet is to start the quartet of skill position players and hope for the best. That includes Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. It's worth noting that Aiyuk finally exploded with eight catches for 147 yards against the Cardinals.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Brock Purdy isn't a must-start every week like some of the elite signal-callers, but that list is limited to about five players at this point, so he's usually in the low-end QB1 range, maybe a streamer depending on the matchup. Seattle's defense has been torched in consecutive outings, making Purdy a strong start.
Player No. 2 - Jauan Jennings is the odd man out with all the pass-catchers back on the field. He's a boom-bust player, but the over/under is 49.5, so he's a potential flex option.
Offense No. 4 - Washington Commanders
The Commanders are 4-1 leading the NFC East division. Since their rocky start in Week 1, they've been tearing up the NFL. They've also been one of the most exciting offenses to watch, largely due to their marvelous budding superstar behind center.
The numbers are there too, including first in points per game with 31, fourth in offensive yards with 392.6, and first in offensive touchdowns at 3.4. Even their 62.8 plays per game, ranking 15th, are good enough. They've been unstoppable at every turn thus far.
Last week's matchup against Cleveland was touted as their toughest yet, and they passed with flying colors. They hammered the Browns 34-10 in a game that was never close.
They'll head to Baltimore, whose defense is another notch above. However, they're coming off a 41-38 win over the Bengals, where Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins went nuclear. This matchup has the second-highest over/under at 51.5, behind only the Lions-Cowboys one we discussed earlier, making both teams ones to target.
The obvious: The trio of Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Brian Robinson Jr. have been very productive thus far, especially the past few weeks when Daniels has been taking downfield shots. They're all in play for you.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Austin Ekeler returned from a concussion in Week 5 to total 97 scrimmage yards on eight touches. He's maintained a useable role given the way this offense involves their backfield. He didn't find the end zone, but that could change against the Ravens because it's easier to attack them through the air and he's the superior receiver.
Player No. 2 - Zach Ertz won't win you your week, but he offers a reasonably safe floor, particularly in full-PPR formats. That might be enough at the tight end position.
Offense No. 5 - Atlanta Falcons
There are several intriguing matchups to target this week, but Atlanta traveling to Carolina is too good to pass up. Things didn't look the way Falcons fans expected in Week 1, but the team has progressively morphed into a dangerous passing attack.
This was capped off with an exclamation point on Thursday against the Buccaneers. They scored 36 points and generated four offensive touchdowns and 550 offensive yards on an astounding 81 plays. It was extremely impressive, providing optimism for the key fantasy options in this offense.
We discussed Carolina's deficiencies on defense last week when we correctly recommended the Bears, who scored 36 points.
The obvious: Drake London is finally breaking out the way everyone thought he could with a quality quarterback. Kyle Pitts had his best performance, which hopefully continues in Week 6. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson was one of the few letdowns in that scorefest, which is cause for concern relative to his initial expectations, but does not remove him from being a locked-in starter.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Kirk Cousins has over a decade of evidence to prove he's a streamer with top-12 upside on any given week. However, until his outrageous stat line of 509 yards and four touchdowns, he hadn't done much for fantasy. Obviously, that kind of output is rare, but he's in the top 15 against the Panthers.
Player No. 2 - Darnell Mooney has earned the trust of Cousins becoming a focal point of the offense. He's long been a talented wideout, but this role suits him perfectly. He's among the top 36 with a safer floor than most and a relatively high ceiling.
Methodology
In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).
We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data.
Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.
Metric No. 1 - Location
NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road.
This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.
The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because they do not need to travel and they have the comfort of their normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of their stadium and the crowd support.
Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)
The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken.
This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.
We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.”
Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.
Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.
Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.
Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game
Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.
This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.
This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.
To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3.
Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.”
Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.
Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.
The expectation is that teams who score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.
Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game
In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above.
Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.
As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.
Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.”
Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place them in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.
Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.
Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is that teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.
Additional Measures
These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.
We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.
We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.
Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 6. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.
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