RADIO
The only constant thing in the NBA is change, which applies to every team and player. Predicting how certain things will change is hugely important to help identify players who won't produce the level of play suggested by their ADPs. ADP is probably the most important tool that people use on draft day.
Whether or not people notice it, it has a big influence on how people draft. Players who fall a few spots are seen as good values while drafting someone whose ADP is even a round or two below their draft spot is seen as a reach. Some players may seem like good values or just great overall picks, but they have big bust potential for a variety of reasons.
S From situation to injury issues to age and more, there are a ton of reasons why players can bust. If you don't try to identify busts, you may be stuck with one of them. So who are five players that could fail to live up to their ADPs this season?
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Anthony Davis - PF/C
The first round of fantasy drafts has the biggest potential for busts. Because players drafted that highly have such high ceilings, a disappointing season has the biggest chance of sinking your fantasy team. Los Angeles Lakers center Anthony Davis is projected to be a first-rounder, with an ADP of No. 8.
The surest way a star player can fail to live up to expectations is through injuries. Davis is now 31 years old, and while he enjoyed a healthy 76 games played in 2023, that hadn't been the case for the previous half-decade. He averaged under 50 games played per season in the five seasons previous to 2023-2024.
Last season seems like an aberration in that context. And a player who is a near-universal first-rounder needs to play for a lot more than 50 games to return value. The players around Davis who have a much better history of staying healthy seem like far safer bets to pick so early in the draft. Davis' injury history is insanely long.
Kawhi Leonard - SF/PF
Los Angeles Clippers small forward Kawhi Leonard makes this list for some of the same reasons as Davis, with a few wrinkles. Like Davis, Leonard has a long history of injuries, but it seems like he in particular is constantly hurt. Leonard was part of a load-management regime that led to new NBA rules regarding player participation.
“Teams don’t really practice, you know we’re not getting up and down….they think by giving us time off it’s helped managing our bodies but it’s really making us weaker as players.
- Paul George is saying Load Management is hurting players more than it’s helping pic.twitter.com/pYbXVi9TPZ
— Dime Dropper (@DimeDropperPod) March 2, 2023
He's on the wrong side of 30, and the injury issues aren't going to magically evaporate. Like Davis, he could have a miracle mostly healthy season, but betting on that by taking him isn't the best idea. In many leagues, big-name value players like Leonard are taken significantly before their ADPs, but even at his ADP of 38, it's risky to take him.
Many players tend to get drafted as if they'll have mostly healthy seasons, so it's a better value proposition to take players who have been healthy consistently over the past few seasons than someone who's as injury-prone as Leonard.
Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson had a ridiculous season last year, no doubt. But his past production is likely unsustainable, and it isn't even because he's not good or had a fluky season. The Knicks added a ton of talent this offseason, trading for both shooting guard Mikal Bridges and center Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Knicks' trade for Karl-Anthony Towns is now official pic.twitter.com/jV2DB0nFqx
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) October 2, 2024
The scoring workload for the Knicks will be much more distributed this season. Last year, power forward Julius Randle missed much of the season due to injury, and Brunson had to carry the team on his back. He should have less burden this year. That doesn't mean he's not still a great player, but just that he won't be asked to put forth ridiculous efforts.
The Knicks should be a much more balanced offense, which isn't great for fantasy. Brunson was the 10th leading scorer last season and has an ADP of 16, and with two new stars on his team, there's no way he'll be asked to shoot as much this season. While it makes sense to draft players based on skill, opportunity should be considered, too.
Joel Embiid - C
You may be starting to notice a pattern here. Philadelphia 76ers star center Joel Embiid is utterly dominant when he's on the court. When he's on isn't as often as it could be, and is alarmingly low on average throughout his career for someone with an ADP of 6. It's difficult to win consistently when your first-round draft pick is injured.
Embiid played 39 games in the 2023-2024 season, yet he's being drafted like he'll have a mostly healthy season. His history with injuries is incredibly problematic, and at an ADP of 6th overall, he's a huge risk. The 76ers also picked up star forward Paul George, a prolific scorer, who can carry the load when Embiid is out. Tyrese Maxe's presence won't help, either.
I just said this was Embiid's mindset in my last video 🤷
Been fading Embiid hard for this season of NBA fantasy when it comes to NBA Best Ball and SoRare NBA https://t.co/4tIqoU3Yv0 pic.twitter.com/Vck6JHIOQP
— Jeb (Steven Adam's Stunt Double) (@ActuallyJebBush) September 30, 2024
NBA teams care about winning basketball games, making the playoffs, and bringing the healthiest possible team into the postseason. Embiid at 30 should be load-managed and not made to play through injury if they want to achieve that goal. Picking him in the first round doesn't make much sense in fantasy.
Tyrese Maxey - PG
Yet another 76er makes this list, for somewhat but not entirely related reasons. In the case that his teammate Embiid does stay healthy for a good chunk of the season, the presence of Embiid and George will undoubtedly mean Maxey sees fewer overall opportunities to score fantasy points.
Maxey is a star talent, but his ADP sits at 24, and he's coming off a season where Embiid played 31 fewer games than he did. Games with George and Embiid will hurt Maxey's usage rate, and it's unlikely to reach the 27.3% it was last season. Should both of them play exactly 39 games together and miss the rest also together, the third-year pro's ADP becomes more reasonable.
You're probably better off drafting players that dominate their teams' fantasy scoring opportunities more like Sacramento Kings points guard De'Aaron Fox, who sits just three spots higher.
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