RADIO
"It was so close!" A phrase well-known to sports fans and the fantasy community. It means the inches between a run becoming touchdown or a fumble. It’s the penalty that undoes a game-breaking throw or tackle. It is the 0.01 points that separate your fantasy team from victory or defeat. Sometimes, the close misses impact us more than the big hits.
IDP leagues saw several fine examples of “So close” last week. Perhaps the best example is Jared Verse, who dominated the Bears but collected just 3.5 fantasy points. In the span of five plays, Verse had two sacks stolen by penalties and another by a great Caleb Williams play. Verse wasn’t the only victim in that game either, as Brisker missed a second INT by a single foot.
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Another fine but very different example of IDP managers getting "so close" is Kyle Hamilton. In Baltimore's battle with Buffalo, Hamilton made a clear tackle behind the line of scrimmage. NFL.com even labeled the video a " Tackle for a Loss." The box score never credited Hamilton with that TFL, though. It’s something that cost yours truly a very close matchup.
Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Damar Hamlin, DB, Buffalo Bills
Hamlin is the 85th most rostered DB in fantasy, but he has managed 100% of Buffalo's defensive snaps in three of four games. He's also 26th in fantasy points per game this season despite being available in 98% of IDP leagues.
The best part about Hamlin is the matchup he has this week. The Texans are running the most offensive plays in the NFL this season and attempting the third most passes per game. That spells a plus matchup for the Bills’ safety, who has collected 81% of his fantasy points this season in two contests against pass-oriented offenses.
Stream: Brian Burns, DL/LB, New York Giants
Burns has had a slow start to his career in New York, averaging just the 20th most fantasy points per game through four weeks. When most people drafted him to be a top-ten option or a DL1, the numbers he has put up so far are disappointing. That’s likely why he was only started in 24% of IDP leagues last weekend.
Fortunately, the Florida State alum has a plus matchup on tap this week. The Seahawks are PFF's fifth-lowest graded pass-blocking unit this season. Worse, they are giving up 9.5 quarterback pressures per game… off the edge alone! Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux are both starts, even in shallow leagues where people can afford to sit them.
Fade: Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars
Hines-Allen barely cracks our top ten defensive linemen rankings this week, and that’s largely thanks to the fact he has the physical talent to thwart a bad matchup and subvert expectations if healthy. Those with plenty of depth on their DL or who want to fade him this week have good reason to do so, though.
Dawkins w a snatch trap on Josh Hines-Allen. Notice the little hop back to create the space for Hines-Allen to fall into.
And then lay on him bc you canpic.twitter.com/DiWs2Q9Ttv
— Chris (Low Ceilings) l Cover 1 🏈 (@LowBuffa) September 27, 2024
For starters, there is no guarantee the “questionable” Hines-Allen plays this week. He did not practice on Wednesday, but coaches still give him a chance to play. However, even if he does play, the Colts are not an ideal matchup… which we have told you when discussing other defensive linemen facing them in previous weeks.
Indianapolis is currently averaging the third-fewest pass plays per game this season. Even with Joe Flacco under center for nearly all of the snaps in Week 4, they still only attempted 30 passes. That would be good for 21st in the NFL per game. Worse, the Colts have allowed just nine pressures off the edge all season. That's bad news for Hines-Allen.
Fade: Trevon Diggs, DB, Dallas Cowboys
The Steelers have a clear #1 receiver for Diggs to shadow in George Pickens. Unfortunately, that may not spell much in the way of fantasy points for Diggs, save a few tackles.
In four games, Justin Fields has thrown one interception. Among quarterbacks with at least 90 pass attempts, Fields has the second-fewest turnover-worthy throws. Pittsburgh also remains a low-volume passing attack, ranking 23rd in pass attempts per game. None of these stats are good for Diggs, who relies primarily on INTs for fantasy production.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Preston Smith, DL, Green Bay Packers
There are currently 82 defensive linemen starting over Smith in IDP leagues this week. While some of that is because many people haven't set their lineups for the coming week, Smith is also the 87th most rostered DL in fantasy. That means that he is readily available in most leagues.
Smith has a premium matchup this week against a Rams pass-blocking unit that is one of the worst in the NFL, even after Rob Havenstein's return. The Rams have surrendered 23 quarterback pressures from the left edge while playing four different left tackles in four games. Smith has lined up over that edge 69% of the time this year.
Stream: Beanie Bishop, DB, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you're hurting for defensive backs in a deeper league, you could do worse than Bishop. He is playing a majority of Pittsburgh's defensive snaps despite some pre-season speculation he was in Mike Tomlin's doghouse.
Sack 10: Beanie Bishop and Cam Heyward https://t.co/LokZ5zucC6 pic.twitter.com/R5mmNhxv4p
— Mr Unlimmmited (@chris_ferland) September 30, 2024
Bishop spends 93.7% of his defensive snaps in the box or in the nickel. That could spell positive fantasy results against a Cowboys team that deploys CeeDee Lamb in the slot 55% of the time. Do not be surprised if Bishop spends plenty of time on Lamb and Jake Ferguson, who are the unquestioned top two targets for Dallas.
Fade: Derek Stingley Jr., DB, Houston Texans
Stingley is a ballhawk you can stream in shallow leagues against elite receivers. He is also a staple starter in many deeper formats. Regardless of where or how you use Stingley, except for the deepest of IDP leagues, you have to worry about his volume this week.
The Bills are attempting the fourth-fewest pass attempts per game in the NFL. Despite going down big early against the Ravens in Week 4, they stuck to that game script. While behind by a big margin, the Bills only attempted 31 passes, which would be good for 20th most in the NFL on a per-game basis.
To make matters worse, the Bills have no clear target hog for Stingley to shadow. The closest thing to that is Khalil Shakir, who is averaging just 4.8 targets per game. Shakir also spends 73.1% of his time in the slot, where Stingley rarely goes. The LSU alum has just four snaps inside all season.
Fade: Sam Hubbard, DL, Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are yet another low-volume offense this season, averaging just 27 pass attempts per game. Lamar Jackson is also historically stingy with sacks, averaging just 2.12 per start over the past six seasons. That rate is even lower this year, with the MVP taking just one sack per contest.
Worse, the Ravens have only allowed 14 total quarterback pressures off the edge this season. That’s bad news for the Bengals’ edge rushers. Of the members of that unit, Hubbard is particularly concerning.
The Ohio State alum has historically been overvalued by IDP managers and rankers alike, something I’ve addressed for years. This year, he is averaging a mere 2.6 Standard IDP points per game, ranking 133rd amongst fantasy DLs, yet he’s the 45th most rostered DL in fantasy. An underperforming player in a bad matchup is the definition of a fade.
Defenders Worth Stashing
Derick Hall, DL, Seattle Seahawks
Hall is available in 97.9% of IDP leagues and is the 80th most rostered DL. This is despite the fact he has at least one sack in three of four contests this season.
Speed to power and then length to make the play
Thing of beauty pic.twitter.com/ePqg2yGD2A— Big Game Bengal (@BengalYouTube) October 1, 2024
While his advanced metrics don’t jump off the chart, the Auburn alum’s usage is increasing. He also has a positive role on an underrated defense. There is potential for Hall to finish as a DL3 by the end of the year.
Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers
Cooper hasn’t played more than 33% of the Packers’ defensive snaps yet, which is why there are 86 linebackers rostered in more leagues than he is. Cooper has made several big plays, though. His profile at Texas A&M was that of a starting linebacker who could be effective as a pass rusher, in coverage, and against the run.
This rookie is worth stashing in all dynasty leagues and most leagues with a deep bench and multiple IDP Flex spots.
Talanoa Hufanga, DB, San Francisco 49ers
Hufanga developed a new injury during practice last week, leaving him out of Week 4. However, we committed to listing him in this space until his roster rate dramatically improves. The rationale and basis for that commitment has not changed.
The USC product is currently the 79th most rostered DB in fantasy and is available in 96.7% of IDP leagues. He remains a big play threat with the ability to play in the box and deep. He has a history of producing quality fantasy stats when healthy, too. That’s too good of a profile to be so undervalued.
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