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Fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. Jorden Hill lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
Now that four weeks of football are in the books, we finally have a large enough sample to have an idea of what each team will look like for the rest of the season. The same goes for fantasy teams: you should now have a pretty good understanding of your roster's strengths and weaknesses. The key to getting trades done, however, is knowing the strengths and weaknesses of the rest of your league. Selling high on a wide receiver, for example, could be a great idea, but it's not likely to work if you send an offer to a team that's loaded at the position.
To recap what happened last week, let's start with the good. I suggested trading for Jayden Reed after consecutive quiet outings, which might be the best recommendation I make this year. Reed popped off for seven receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown, and he's unlikely to slow down anytime soon given the Packers' juicy upcoming schedule. I also proposed trading away Garrett Wilson, who couldn't do much of anything against Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos. My advice to sell Zach Charbonnet came before the announcement of Kenneth Walker III's return, so hopefully you were able to capitalize on his run as the starter early in the week. Trading for Najee Harris ahead of a matchup with the Colts should have worked, but it turned out to be a clear miss on my part. Harris should continue to see a heavy workload, though, and has a chance to be more efficient this week against a Cowboys defense that has struggled against the run.
All in all, I'm pleased with what we saw in Week 4 and hope that the trades I advocated for continue to yield positive results. Let's keep the momentum going in Week 5, starting with two players to target in negotiations.
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Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Through four weeks, this is the worst season for fantasy tight ends in over a decade, and it's not even particularly close. Over the first four weeks of the 2014-2015 campaign, the TE12 averaged 8.6 half-PPR fantasy points per contest. This year, a tight end averaging 8.6 half-PPR fantasy points would be the TE3.
The actual fantasy TE3 right now is rookie Brock Bowers. He's scoring just 8.3 points per week but underlying metrics indicate he could be a rare difference-maker at the position.
Players averaging 5+ yards of separation this season
☠️ Brock Bowers
End of list.
h/t @NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/9tT86lRaM2
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) October 2, 2024
Bowers' rookie season got off to a scorching start. He turned 17 targets into 15 receptions and 156 yards over the first two weeks, leading tight ends in all three statistical categories. The 21-year-old failed to make the same impact in Weeks 3 and 4.
Bowers' three receptions for 41 yards against the Panthers in Week 3 were disappointing, but he still ended up as the TE15 on the week. Although his 2-for-19 showing last week was worse, I think giving him a pass against the Cleveland Browns is fair.
The Browns have surrendered the 12th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends so far this season, but with tight-end scoring at an all-time low, this doesn't paint the entire picture. Cleveland was the second-strongest defense against tight ends last year and the sixth-strongest one in 2022. This was an extremely difficult challenge for Bowers to overcome in his third game as a pro.
On Sunday, Bowers will face the Denver Broncos, who allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends last season. So far this year, they've surrendered the seventh-most catches to the position. The Raiders will likely be without star receiver Davante Adams this week, and with his trade request on Tuesday, Bowers may never compete with Adams for opportunities again.
The 2024 first-round selection has a very promising upcoming schedule and should operate as the top pass-catching option in Las Vegas for the foreseeable future. Bowers won't come cheap, but following two down games, you should be able to acquire him more easily than you could have after Week 2.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Much like Bowers, Rhamondre Stevenson came out swinging to start the season before turning in back-to-back underwhelming performances. Unlike Bowers, Stevenson has given fantasy managers a legitimate reason to panic.
Rhamondre Stevenson has already fumbled four times this season. No other RB has put the ball on the ground more than twice.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 1, 2024
Four fumbles in four games is bad for fantasy, but it's even worse for the Patriots. This is a 1-3 team scoring the second-fewest points in the NFL, so every turnover is devastating.
Stevenson will get another chance, though. Head coach Jerod Mayo could have benched him immediately after the fumble on New England's second possession of last week's loss, but he didn't. The Patriots believe in Stevenson, as evidenced by the four-year, $36 million contract extension they gave him this past offseason.
Taking the fumbles out of the equation, Stevenson has impressed on the ground. His 151 yards after contact are sixth-most amongst running backs, as are his five broken tackles. He's also proven to be a talented receiver throughout his career, making him a dynamic weapon on a team that is otherwise lacking in offensive firepower.
The fourth-year pro will have a great chance to bounce back at home against the division-rival Dolphins on Sunday. Miami is surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, with two top-6 finishes allowed in four weeks.
Opposing RB1s have found the end zone a total of seven times against the Dolphins already. It's worth noting that Stevenson will face Miami again in Week 12, but in the meantime, matchups against the Jaguars, Rams, and Bears all look to be favorable.
With how starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett has fared, we should see third overall pick Drake Maye take the reins of this offense sooner rather than later, which certainly gives Stevenson a higher ceiling, and hopefully, a more stable floor. If he can be taken from a concerned manager for a low-end RB2 or middling WR2 in return, make it happen.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
The first running back taken in April's draft, Jonathon Brooks, is yet to play a snap in the NFL as he continues to recover from a torn ACL he suffered last November. The University of Texas product is nearing a return, but fantasy gamers who eagerly drafted Brooks to stash on their IR will have to keep him there for a few more weeks.
Panthers don't plan to activate Jonathon Brooks (knee) from PUP list this week. https://t.co/xiSRgOe5xI
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) September 30, 2024
Since head coach Dave Canales decided to bench former first overall pick Bryce Young and hand the keys to veteran Andy Dalton, the Panthers are 1-1, averaging 30 points per game and 406 yards of offense.
This, understandably, has led to an increase in hype for Brooks' debut. However, it's apparent that Carolina is not rushing things with its rookie back, and with how well Chuba Hubbard has been playing, why would it?
Hubbard has been the fantasy RB3 over the past two weeks. Yes, he faced two suspect run defenses in that span, but this kind of production didn't come out of nowhere. After entering last season behind Miles Sanders on the depth chart, Hubbard was the RB9 from Week 12 on. He's a solid player that the Panthers will utilize regardless of Brooks' status.
In addition, we have to consider the very real possibility that Carolina embraces a lost season and turns QB1 duties back over to Young at some point. It's already been reported that Young is eventually expected to start again. By the time Brooks is activated and ramped up to having a significant role, he could be a committee back on one of the worst offenses in the league.
There is a chance Brooks will establish himself as the clear best running back on the Panthers in 2024 but the odds are stacked against him to do so before the team's Week 11 bye. Even at 21 years old, becoming a true workhorse as a rookie who is just one year removed from an ACL tear would be a tremendous feat.
I'd be willing to capitalize on the hype for what could be to add a player who can help my team right away.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Before Week 4, the argument could be made that Michael Pittman Jr. was the single worst pick in fantasy drafts, excluding players who have missed time due to injury. Drafted as the WR21, Pittman was the WR73 over the first three weeks despite earning a team target share of just under 30%.
This past Sunday, Pittman came alive with six receptions for 113 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers as the Colts pulled off an impressive win at home. Indianapolis marched down the field and scored on each of its first two drives, which both featured deep completions from quarterback Anthony Richardson to Pittman.
The rest of Pittman's four catches came on passes thrown by Joe Flacco following a hip injury that kept Richardson out for the remainder of the contest. He has since been labeled day-to-day, leaving the door open for him to suit up in Week 5.
Although the Richardson-Pittman connection looked good for two possessions, we have three other full games this season that essentially render that connection nonexistent. This is because Richardson has been one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the league.
Anthony Richardson's Catchable Throw Rate
+ @FantasyPtsDataOn balls thrown...
1-9 yards in the air: 74.1% (worst of 37 qualifiers)
10-19 yards in the air: 38.1% (6th-worst)
20-39 yards in the air: 36.6% (3rd-worst)
40+ yards in the air: 100.0% (best)— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 1, 2024
This type of downfield accuracy bodes well for a receiver like Alec Pierce, who almost exclusively operates as a field stretcher. For Pittman, however, the 32- and 28-yard balls he came down with in Week 4 were out of the ordinary.
Last season, Pittman's most prolific, he posted an average target distance of 7.9 yards, which is right in line with what he's done throughout his career. Pittman makes his money as a dependable option within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, which is where Richardson is least effective.
If Flacco gets the nod in Week 5, Pittman should be a solid WR2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. But with Richardson expected to be available very soon, it's probably wise to strike while the iron is hot and deal him to a team that's losing a receiver to a Week 5 bye.
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