RADIO
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson, after an offseason of tremendous hype and praise for his talents, rose to become a universal late first-round pick in fantasy drafts this season and his ADP settled around the 1-2 turn in drafts. He was expected to lead a revamped Jets passing attack with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers at the helm and put up some big numbers.
Yet that hasn't even come close to happening. Wilson had three semi-serviceable games in Weeks 1-3 before regressing in a big way against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. Wilson was targeted eight times but brought in just five passes for 41 yards after being shadowed by cornerback Patrick Surtain II and hasn't even approached justifying his fantasy draft capital.
Wilson is shaping up to be one of the biggest busts of the 2024 fantasy season. First and second-round picks are supposed to be set-and-forget players with consistent week-winning upside who put up monster stats, but Wilson has less than 11 PPR fantasy points per game. What's wrong with Garrett Wilson? Can he turn it around?
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Problem One: The Schedule
The Jets have faced extremely tough defenses over the first four weeks, especially for opposing No. 1 receivers like Wilson. Their first four opponents, the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, San Francisco 49ers, and Denver Broncos rank 20th, 16th, 4th, and 3rd in least fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.
Surtain vs Garrett Wilson in the slot
He respects the outside release but so easily can Surtain slam the door shut pic.twitter.com/XQNF8ti3EY
— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) September 30, 2024
The Broncos in particular have cornerback Patrick Surtain II, one of the best cover corners in the NFL, who followed Wilson around in Week 4 and made life hard for him. In Week 1, CB Christian Gonzalez, who was stellar as a rookie before going down for the season with an injury, provided stiff resistance to Wilson's efforts as well.
Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez, in 8 games, locked up with these elite WRs:
Ja'Marr Chase
Tyreek Hill
AJ Brown
DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
Garrett Wilson x2
DK Metcalf
Brandon AiyukCoverage Stats:
22 catches allowed
184 recieving yards
1 TD allowed
1 INT
3 PBUTop 5 CB👑 pic.twitter.com/JllmIjrzoW
— El Capitãn (@DomGonzo12) September 30, 2024
It hasn't been a fun time for Wilson. The good news is... there isn't good news. The Jets will face the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England Patriots in their next three games. That's a gauntlet for Wilson, who will square off with Christian Benford, Joey Porter Jr., and Gonzo again.
Per PFF, Christian Benford has been targeted 14 times. He's given up 5 catches for 27 yards.
THIS SEASON
He also has an INT and opposing QBs have a 14.6 rating targeting him through four games.
Ridiculous
— Patrick Moran (Talking Buffalo) (@PatrickMoranTB) September 30, 2024
The Steelers rank 8th and the Bills rank 2nd in least PPR fantasy points allowed to receivers. Wilson will face off against elite CB talent that has shut down the likes of Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. Wilson's season isn't about to get easier.
Christian Benford is an insane CB#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/XZVGG02Un2
— Buffalo Bills Backers Italy (@BillsItaly) September 27, 2024
Problem Two: The Jets Offense
The Jets' offense ranks just outside the top ten in total yards per game and is 21st in points per game. It hasn't looked very good so far this season. Despite overhauling the offensive line with signings of excellent linemen, Rodgers being healthy, and a WR room viewed as being very good, the Jets have been mediocre.
The #Jets have a million problems on offense right now, and Aaron Rodgers had his share of misses on Sunday, but damn can this man still make some special throws.
As long as he's slinging it like this, they have a chance to get this thing fixed pic.twitter.com/ihXBNCEnct
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 30, 2024
Rodgers has shown that he's still an elite talent, so the problems extend beyond him. Jets offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett has been criticized heavily for his terrible offenses. He's been clowned by his fanbase during games for some of his gaffes.
Broncos Country counting down the play clock for Nathaniel Hackett pic.twitter.com/Ubhlh09a8O https://t.co/qaR7MR4RI8
— Kevin (@SleepyKev5) May 27, 2024
Hilariously, Broncos fans had been counting down the play clock for Hackett to avoid the horrendous delay-of-game penalties. The incident that caused this was a horrendous sequence of Hackett's doing in his previous failed tenure as a head coach.
Please watch this entire sequence. Nate Hackett has officially lost it. Denver went from 3rd and inches, a TE rush attempt, a long FG attempt, and then a punt. Lord pic.twitter.com/3Eugrn7sHG
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 18, 2022
Was Hackett not hired based on his pedigree but as a nepotism baby that Rodgers wanted as his offensive coordinator? It's possible. He's had a bad enough track record that it's important to question it when there are much more promising coaches to hire.
Problem Three: Garrett Wilson Himself
The simple fact is that Garrett Wilson was drafted with the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft, is regularly hyped by fantasy analysts and the media as a sure-fire WR1, and has yet to show anything on the field that would justify any of that. At some point, players have to produce to justify their hype.
Wilson fits into a class of players including Falcons wide receiver Drake London. They are considered elite prospects coming out of college, have tantalizing physical tools, and are viewed as guaranteed WR1's in the NFL, but once they make it to the league, they underperform, and excuse after excuse is made to explain their lack of performance.
Garrett Wilson very kindly hands the ball to the Broncos.
Such a nice guy
— Savage (@SavageSports_) September 29, 2024
There's no doubt that Garrett is a talented player. The problem is when he starts being ranked above players who have shown that they can succeed in the NFL, independent of their situation. The elite players find a way, whether they have good or bad QB play, are on a well-run offense, etc.
Garrett Wilson just completed his rookie season with 83 receptions for 1100 plus yards with crumbs at quarteback
Superstar
pic.twitter.com/fQwBuJ4TFP— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) January 8, 2023
Fantasy managers should think critically before drafts about why players with much worse career production and no top-15 fantasy seasons are ranked ahead of proven studs. Receivers like Texans WR Nico Collins, 49ers WR Deebo Samuel Sr., and Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf were all significantly below Wilson in ADP.
Nico Collins 2023-24 Season Highlights
The Texans got their WR1. pic.twitter.com/DmI5Yhy7jd
— Jacob (@Stroud4MVP) February 1, 2024
Collins had a monster season in 2023, but the arrival of WR Stefon Diggs was seen as a huge negative and something that would tank Collins' value in fantasy. That hasn't happened. Instead, Collins is currently the overall WR2 in PPR scoring formats. There was plenty of evidence Collins was fantastic. He was a sure-fire stud.
Players like Collins suggest it's a better strategy to draft players highly who don't need excuses made for them anymore. Collins had a shaky first two years but broke out in a big way in 2023 after the arrival of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Players who have yet to break out being drafted in the later rounds make sense. Spending a first-round pick on Wilson was a highly speculative decision.
Need so much more from Garrett Wilson.
Fumbles, dropped catches, and running the wrong route.
Sorry, I’ll be honest with you
— Luke Grant (@LukeGrant7) September 29, 2024
Wilson had WR21 and WR33 overall finishes in full PPR in his two seasons in the NFL. Based purely on that, drafting him early wasn't a good idea. There's just too much we don't know about him, and we're relying on analysts and experts swearing he's elite without him having shown it to us first. That's what you should expect out of later-round picks in fantasy drafts, not your early ones.
How Do I Avoid Drafting Players Like Garrett in the Future?
Through four games in 2024, the top ten PPR-scoring wide receivers are Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Jauan Jennings, Stefon Diggs, Ja'Marr Chase, Rashee Rice and CeeDee Lamb. Nabers and Jennings are surprised, but 80% of these players have shown us excellent production in the past.
Collins, Jefferson, Godwin, Diggs, Chase, and Lamb have had monster fantasy seasons in past years. Reed and Rice broke out in a big way in the second half of 2023. Nabers and Jennings were harder to predict, and it's yet to be seen if Jennings' production holds. But for the most part, drafting known producers has been better.
You can get a big advantage in fantasy football if you're able to identify players who outperform their ADPs by a big margin, but drafting speculatively in the early rounds can lead to huge, missed opportunities. Sometimes the boring picks are the better ones, and that's okay to say.
Can Wilson turn it around? There's always that hope, but right now, things don't look so good on that front.
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