RADIO
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Sanderson Farms
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Sanderson Farms
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
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You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Field
Field Size: 132
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0
Last Five Winners of the Presidents Cup
| 2023 | Luke List | -18 |
| 2022 | Mackenzie Hughes | -17 |
| 2021 | Sam Burns | -22 |
| 2020 | Sergio Garcia | -19 |
| 2019 | Sebastian Munoz | -18 |
Expected Cut-Line At The Sanderson
| 2023 | -5 |
| 2022 | -4 |
| 2021 | -2 |
| 2020 | -2 |
| 2019 | 0 |
Country Club of Jackson
7,461 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bermuda
I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | CC Of Jackson | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 285 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 53% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 69% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 62% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.52 | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
Strokes Gained: Weighted Tee-To-Green - Recent (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Short Iron + Fast Bermuda Putting (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Weighted Driving (10%)
Prox 0-150 (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
![](data:image/svg+xml,<svg%20xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"%20viewBox="0%200%201918%201068"></svg>)
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Mac Meissner | 50 |
| Chan Kim | 40 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 120 |
| Andrew Novak | 60 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 150 |
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 65 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
These watered-down contests are always challenging because they have a vastly different top-of-the-board than we are accustomed to when Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Xander Schauffele are in an event.
All three players are acceptable to consider, although there likely isn't a massive gap between these options and the names marginally beneath them on the slate.
That take doesn't do much to push anyone in any direction, but I do believe this is one of those situations where ownership will play a vital part in the discussion. Unfortunately, that is not an answer we have at this moment.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
I am indifferent to the $10,000 section without ownership because my model found names like J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, and Patrick Fishburn to be borderline equivalent to the top of the slate.
All three are currently in my player pool.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I placed pre-tournament outright tickets on both Chan Kim and Mac Meissner.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
When you dive into the data, you might find that Michael Thorbjornsen's metrics have been extremely boom-or-bust between starts. Heavy gains with the driver and irons quickly have been erased when the course isn't geared toward his game. That is something that we saw in an even more condensed situation at the Procore Championship to start the season after Thorbjornsen worked himself into the top 15 heading into Sunday before firing a six-over round to plummet down the leaderboard.
The downside is a missed cut after a helter-skelter start to his career, but if you tell me that this watered-down contest allows a minimal missed fairway penalty (the same answer we saw during his second place at the John Deere Classic), I will bite when it is accompanied by an increase in Expected Proximity.
$6,000 Options to Consider
Very similar to the sentiment I said about Michael Thorbjornsen, Ryo Hisastsune has a high ceiling if you are looking to throw a dart in the $6,000 range.
Hisatsune's talent is better than this section, and it doesn't hurt matters that my model ranked him inside the top five for 'Easy Scoring.'
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - All similar
$9,000+ - J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin and Patrick Fishburn
$8,000+ - Mac Meissner, Chan Kim
$7,000+ - Michael Thorbjornsen
$6,000+ - Ryo Hisatsune
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
