RADIO
Week 3 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the third week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?
Every week, I'll be looking at five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.
Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 3. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
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- Tight end fantasy football rankings
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Andy Dalton - QB, Carolina Panthers
Week 3 stats: 26-for-37, 319 yards, three touchdown passes - overall QB8
The Panthers made the decision to bench former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, hoping that veteran Andy Dalton could infuse some life into the offense. On paper, it seemed like a flawed idea. Dalton turns 37 next month and was merely just fine in his last stint as a starter with New Orleans in 2022.
But it turned out this might have been exactly what Carolina needed.
Andy Dalton showing Bryce Young that you're supposed to throw to YOUR team instead of the other team: pic.twitter.com/teOvDjGxEs
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) September 22, 2024
In Sunday's win over the Raiders, Dalton was 26-for-37 for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Carolina had scored just 13 points entering the week but put up 36 in the victory. The Panthers have already committed to keeping Dalton as their starter.
But with Adam Thielen landing on IR this week, Dalton's supporting cast has already taken a big hit, and that makes it more unlikely that he will repeat performances like this. He's a solid option for the Panthers, but he's not throwing for 300-plus yards each week. Consider him a QB2 option in fantasy with some matchup-dependent upside.
Verdict: I think consistent QB1 play is fiction, but it's a fact that the Panthers offense looks much better with Dalton running the show
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers
Week 3 stats: 21 carries for 114 yards, five receptions for 55 yards, and a touchdown - overall RB5
Sticking in Carolina, the improvements from Dalton that helped keep the Panthers offense on the field allowed Chuba Hubbard to have his best showing of 2024.
Or maybe it was Hubbard's strong game that allowed Dalton to look like he did?
Or maybe a little of both—a kind of symbiosis?
The point is Hubbard had 21 carries for 114 yards plus five receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. He thoroughly outplayed Miles Sanders, who had seven carries for 17 yards, though Sanders salvaged his day from a fantasy angle by finding the end zone.
I still hold that once rookie Jonathon Brooks is healthy, this is his backfield, but Brooks is still recovering from a torn ACL and it could still be over a month until we see him.
For now, the fact that the Carolina has realized he should have significantly more touches than Sanders is a good sign. I don't see Hubbard getting 150-plus scrimmage yards per game, but he can be a solid fantasy RB2 with Dalton under center.
Verdict: Fiction as an RB1, Fact as someone you can actually play in fantasy now
Jauan Jennings - WR, San Francisco 49ers
Week 3 stats: 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns.
The most unlikely performance of Week 3 came from San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings. With George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. sidelined, Jennings was pressed into a larger role, and he delivered eye-popping results.
The fourth-year receiver was targeted 12 times, catching 11 of those for 175 yards and three touchdowns. He now has more yards and touchdowns than he did in all of the 2023 season.
Jauan Jennings became the only @49ers player other than Jerry Rice to have 10+ receptions and 3+ receiving TD in a single game in team history with his Week 3 performance 🙌 pic.twitter.com/S2SVuP8ghq
— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2024
I think two things can be true here. First, Jennings isn't going to have a game like this one again because games like this don't grow on trees.
Second, Jennings is a must-start option in fantasy until the 49ers get healthy. Not having Kittle, Samuel, or Christian McCaffrey really creates a hole that Jennings can take advantage of. It won't last forever—Jennings is a talented player, but he isn't the game-changer that those three are. Still, ride the hot hand until at least one, if not two, of those three injured players return.
Verdict: Fiction, but keep playing him until the 49ers get healthy.
Dallas Goedert - TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 3 stats: 10 catches for 170 yards - overall TE1
Dallas Goedert didn't get off to the best start this season, but the veteran tight end exploded for 170 yards on 10 receptions in Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints.
The Eagles currently have a banged up receiver duo, with uncertainty about the Week 4 status of both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Additionally, tight end has been a dud of a position in fantasy this season, so this performance is something to make note of.
Sure, Goedert probably won't be targeted 11 times per game or anything like that, but it's tough to find production at tight end right now. Case in point: this one game propelled Goedert to the overall TE1 spot on the season in terms of scoring leaders.
Do I expect Goedert to finish as the overall TE1? No. But he's a strong top-10 player at the position going forward.
Verdict: Fact, at least until the Eagles have their receiver duo healthy, then it's kind of a mix of Fact and Fiction
Cole Kmet - TE, Chicago Bears
Week 3 stats: 10 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown
Cole Kmet finally got going in Week 3, catching 10 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. Coming into the week, he had five catches on six targets for 31 yards.
Good eyes and timing by Caleb Williams to convert this Hank route by Cole Kmet for a 1st down pic.twitter.com/5u7Sybmv2b
— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) September 25, 2024
Kmet should be better than he was in Week 1 and Week 2, but repeating his Week 3 performance feels unlikely. A big part of that was that Caleb Williams threw 52 passes in a loss to the Colts, and I just don't see the Bears asking the rookie to throw that much most weeks.
What's more, Keenan Allen has missed the last two games. In the one game he played, Kmet was targeted just once, while Allen was targeted 11 times.
Kmet is somewhere between a low-end TE1 and high-end TE2 option going forward. He showed that he can have some big-time performances, but he still has a relatively low floor.
Verdict: More Fiction than Fact
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