RADIO
Welcome to the Week 4 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin for the 2024 NFL season, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this fourth main slate of the 2024 campaign, I'm glad to report that value-salary players are abundant on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash-game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players who are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Sam Darnold, MIN at GB | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $24
Darnold quickly shook off any injury concerns after getting an MRI on his left knee following the Week 3 win over the Texans, as he was able to practice without restrictions this week. The early-season star put together another stellar performance against Houston, recording four touchdown passes on his way to his second straight 20+ fantasy-point tally. Darnold has looked like a completely different player than the much-maligned signal-caller he profiled as over his first few seasons, and his salaries remain extremely reasonable heading into Sunday's divisional clash.
The Packers have allowed 16.3 DK/15.6 FD and Yahoo points per game to quarterbacks thus far, along with 222.7 passing yards per game and 10.6 yards per completion. Darnold will have the benefit of getting Jordan Addison back on the field, as the second-year wideout has been fully cleared from his ankle injury. With Addison set to draw attention from Justin Jefferson while also serving as a very capable option in his own right, Darnold's prospects of paying off what are still very reasonable investments are bright.
Andy Dalton, CAR vs. CIN | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $22
Dalton came through handsomely as a value suggestion in Week 3, amassing 319 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Raiders in a performance reminiscent of his one spot start last season, when he compiled 361 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks. The Red Rifle certainly still has plenty left in the tank, and he encouragingly showed immediate chemistry with No. 1 receiver Diontae Johnson, who we'd recommended as a stacking partner.
The veteran signal-caller now gets his fourth career shot at the team that drafted him back in 2011 after going 2-1 against Cincy thus far. The Bengals' defense was just exploited by rookie Jayden Daniels and has some suspect numbers even when factoring in the Bengals faced the Patriots in Week 1, as they're allowing an AFC-high 75.0 percent completion rate and are ranked No. 26 in Pass Defense DVOA as well. Cincinnati will also have to respect the Panthers' running game, considering Chuba Hubbard is coming off having amassed 169 total yards against the Raiders.
ANDY DALTON IS SLINGING IT
pic.twitter.com/Vt9vxuv7eT— PFF (@PFF) September 22, 2024
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Caleb Williams, CHI vs. LAR | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $22
- Trevor Lawrence, JAC at HOU | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $26
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at ARI | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $27
Robinson has already gotten his season off to a solid start, and he now is set to take the field in what lines up as a favorable matchup without top complementary back Austin Ekeler, who'll sit out with a concussion. Robinson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry overall, although he's sandwiched two sub-4.0 yards-per-carry performances around a 17-133 rushing line against the Giants in Week 2. However, the third-year back is going to be in store for a particularly robust role in Week 4 with Ekeler absent, which should even afford Robinson more pass-catching opportunities.
The Cardinals have allowed 25.7 DK/22.7 FD and Yahoo points per game to RBs, along with three total TDs to the position in three games. Arizona is also yielded 123.3 rushing yards per game and has surrendered and average of four receptions per contest to RBs. Robinson could be set to log virtually every carry that Daniels doesn't take from the QB position, and he'll be entering the game with a 75.6 percent positive run rate thus far on his 45 carries to date. It's also worth noting the Cards have given up seven red-zone touchdowns, including four on the ground, while Robinson already has 11 red-zone touches.
Zack Moss, CIN at CAR | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $21
The Bengals may be surprisingly 0-3, but Moss has already proven himself to be a good fit with Zac Taylor's offense and is enjoying the voluminous dual role he was ticketed for entering the season. The veteran back has logged rising touch counts of 11 // 13 // 17 over his first three games in a Cincinnati uniform, and he's coming off season highs in rushing yards (58), receptions (five) and receiving yards (39) in the narrow Week 3 loss to the Commanders.
The Panthers are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (151.3) and 4.7 yards per carry, along with 28.5 DK/25.5 FD and Yahoo points per game to running backs. Carolina has already allowed four rushing TDs (and one receiving) to RBs, along with an average of four catches per contest to the position, giving Moss, who continues to serve as the clear lead back over Chase Brown, multiple paths to fantasy production.
Zack Moss
•12 carries
•6 Targets
•All goal line workIt seems to be Moss’s backfield to lose
High End RB2 ROSpic.twitter.com/2qLm0xv613
— Nick Guglielmo (@NextLvl_Fantasy) September 24, 2024
ALSO CONSIDER:
- J.K. Dobbins, LAC vs. KC | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $28
- Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. CIN | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $26
DraftKings/Yahoo Special:
- Jordan Mason, SF vs. NE | DK: $6,700, Yahoo: $27
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
DJ Moore, CHI vs. LAR | DK: $6,700, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $25
Moore's salaries essentially remained unchanged from Week 3, when, as one of our value options, he generated 15.2 DK/11.2 FD and Yahoo points on an 8-78 line on 10 targets against the Colts. Rookie first overall pick Caleb Williams appeared to make some significant strides in his second NFL game, and the duo now faces a Rams team that has proven highly vulnerable in every facet of defensive play over the first three weeks.
Los Angeles checks in yielding an NFL-high 425.7 total yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. Through the air, the Rams have surrendered 248.7 passing yards per game at an NFL-high 13.1 yards per completion, along with a 72.2 percent completion rate. L.A. has also allowed seven passing touchdowns along with the third-most DK points (44.9) and second-most FD/Yahoo points (36.4) per contest to wide receivers, strengthening Moore's case further.
DJ Moore's juke gets 3 Texans to have the same animation pic.twitter.com/zsQBgeXkdP
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 17, 2024
Tee Higgins, CIN at CAR | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $27
Higgins made his long-awaited season debut in Week 3 after overcoming his hamstring injury, and although the results weren't spectacular by any stretch, the veteran receiver did make it out of the game unscathed and was able to play on 54 of the Bengals' 60 snaps. Higgins walked away with a 3-39 line on a solid six targets, certainly a good break-the-ice game that could leave him poised for much better production in a Week 4 matchup against the Panthers defense.
Carolina has given up 34.1 DK/28.3 FD and Yahoo points per game to wide receivers, along with five touchdowns to the position. The Panthers are also surrendering a robust 10.1 yards per completion, along with five red-zone receiving TDs; in turn, Higgins already saw two red-zone targets in his season debut and double-digit looks in that part of the field in all four previous seasons.
Christian Kirk, JAC at HOU | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $19
Kirk was able to put a nightmarish first two weeks of the season behind him in Week 3, tallying 15.9 DK/11.9 FD and Yahoo points in the loss to the Bills. Kirk caught just two passes on seven targets over his first two games, but he boasted an 80.0 percent catch rate on his 10 looks from Trevor Lawrence versus Buffalo and parlayed that into 79 yards.
Jacksonville is desperate at 0-3, and a matchup that they'll enter knowing they'll need to be ultra-aggressive in could be just the recipe for another step forward for Kirk. The Texans just gave up four passing TDs to the Vikings in Week 3, and Houston has also conceded a healthy 14.9 yards per reception and four touchdowns to wide receivers specifically. If Kirk continues to draw anywhere near as much of Lawrence's attention -- which would appear to be highly probable, given the circumstances and expected game environment -- he could enjoy more success against DeMeco Ryans' defense after posting a combined 8-133-1 line in two games versus Houston in 2023.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jauan Jennings, SF vs. NE | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
- Jahan Dotson, PHI at TB | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $10
- Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. NO | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $15
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Zach Ertz, WAS at ARI | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $10
There understandably wasn't much hype surrounding Ertz entering the season, considering his age, spot on a team with a rookie starting QB, and the fact he was coming off a serious injury. However, the veteran has proven more than serviceable with a 12-128 line on 13 targets through the first three games.
He now returns to his most recent home field before this season, State Farm Stadium, to tangle against his old Cardinals squad while sporting very appealing salaries. Arizona has been good against tight ends thus far, but Ertz has a career-high 8.9-yard aDOT (average depth of target) and career-best 92.3 percent catch rate in the first three games of the season.
TE Zach Ertz, also returns to Arizona on Sunday -- he had a season-high 5 catches last week.
Had 130 catches for 1,167 yards & 8 TDs in 28 games (2021-23) with #AZCardinals.
Has 4 receiving TDs in 5 career games vs. Arizona, per @NFL345 pic.twitter.com/zuOH7GPIpL— Chris Russell AKA the 🐓🐓! (@Russellmania621) September 26, 2024
Mike Gesicki, CIN at CAR | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $11
Gesicki is now much closer to the pass-catching threat he proved to be during his pre-Mike McDaniel days with the Dolphins, as he's posted a 14-156 line on 18 targets over his first three games as a Bengal. The veteran tight end has 11 of those receptions, 138 of those yards and 14 of those targets in the last pair of contests, and he still logged five looks from Joe Burrow in Week 3 despite the debut of Higgins.
Gesicki is now in a favorable spot against the Panthers, which are already giving up an NFC-high 15.2 DK/12.7 FD and Yahoo points per game to the position. Carolina is yielding a 71.4 percent completion rate overall, and Gesicki is being targeted on a solid 31.6 percent of his routes while posting a career-high 77.8 percent catch rate.
DraftKings/Yahoo Special:
- Dallas Goedert, PHI at TB | DK: $5,100, Yahoo: $17
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