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The NFL season has been wild through three weeks but we're back with more NFL DFS in Week 4. Let us dive into the data and get a head start on researching for this week's slate.
This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 29. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 4 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 4, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 4: Main Slate Only
- Cardinals - 27
- Bengals - 26.5
- 49ers/Texans - 25
- Eagles - 23.5
- Chiefs- 23.25
2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Saints - 34.3
- Bills - 32.5
- Vikings- 28
- Cardinals- 27.3
- Cowboys - 25.7
2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Steelers- 8.7
- Vikings - 10
- Chargers - 11
- Seattle - 14.3
- Saints - 14.7
The Arizona Cardinals are once again near the top for implied team totals. They lead the way this week with 27 points total versus the Washington Commanders. It'll be another shoot-out opportunity for Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Cincinnati Bengals are back to full health with Tee Higgins. The offense seemed to run smoother with the full group back. The ownership here on a Bengals stack will be interesting to see as they face the Carolina Panthers.
Marvin Harrison, Jr. Good extension and catch.
It's specific target trajectories where the hands get wonky. This is very good. pic.twitter.com/fTXSdv8XPo
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 24, 2024
Week 4 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the small sample size that we have so far for the 2024 season.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- San Francisco (2) vs. New England (28)
- Philadelphia (5) vs. Tampa Bay (25)
- Houston (7) vs. Jacksonville (29)
- Kansas City (11) vs. L.A. Chargers (9)
- Minnesota (13) vs. Green Bay (22)
The San Francisco 49ers (once again) have a matchup where they can bounce back. The question is: will they? The injuries continue to pile up with Brock Purdy being day-to-day with back soreness. If Purdy isn't starting, it's probably best to avoid the 49ers altogether.
Philadelphia continues to battle themselves but somehow managed to be 2-1. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a tough loss to the Denver Broncos. Jalen Hurts will need to improve his play as he'll most likely only have Saquon Barkley.
Rashee Rice is a bonafide #1 WR.
11 catches on 13 targets 113 yards 1 TD
pic.twitter.com/C5gKKc1JRb— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) September 23, 2024
For Kansas City, while they are facing a tough Los Angeles Chargers defense, they are the Chiefs. You should be looking to stack Patrick Mahomes with Rashee Rice as the two seem like they can't be stopped.
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Philadelphia (3) vs. Tampa Bay (25)
- Washington (5) vs. Arizona (19)
- New Orleans (6) vs. Atlanta (27)
- Arizona (9) vs. Washington (17)
- Pittsburgh (12) vs. Indianapolis (31)
Starting with the Philadelphia Eagles against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This matchup comes in at the perfect time as the Eagles' receiving core is banged up. Saquon Barkley will be chalk but chalk that you shouldn't avoid.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' offense has been running smoothly through the first three weeks. Najee Harris should lead the way against the Indianapolis Colts. Their defense continues to struggle against the run and allows 179 rushing yards per game.
You can look at both sides for the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals game. James Conner will continue to hold the lion's share of snaps. Brian Robinson Jr. should be relied on more heavily as Austin Ekeler exited the Monday Night Football game against the Cincinnati Bengals with a concussion.
2023 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Washington (Murray), L.A. Rams (Williams), Houston (Lawrence), Tampa Bay (Hurts), Kansas City (Herbert/Heinicke)
RB - Las Vegas (Ford), Tampa Bay (Barkley), Carolina (Moss/Brown), L.A. Rams (Swift), Chicago (Williams)
WR - Washington (Marvin Harrison Jr.), L.A. Rams (Moore), Indianapolis (Pickens), New England (Aiyuk), Philadelphia (Evans/Godwin)
TE - Kansas City (Hurst), Carolina (Gesicki), New Orleans (Johnson), Green Bay (Mundt), Indianapolis (Freiermuth)
DEF - CIN (CAR), CLE (LV), CHI (LAR), NE (SF), LV (CLE)
The Arizona Cardinals stack will lead the way heading into Week 4. They hold the top spot for implied team totals and good spots for Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. A top stack to eye for Sunday.
It looks like the Chicago Bears have found some momentum for their offense as they did look better in Week 3. A stack of Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift, and DJ Moore could bring low ownership. Many aren't sold on them just yet, making them a sneaky stack.
Week 4 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- George Pickens ($6.1K vs. $5.7K)
- Jerome Ford ($6.4K vs. $5.7K)
- Chuba Hubbard ($6.5K vs. $5.7K)
- DJ Moore ($6.5K vs. $6.7K)
- Brock Bowers ($6.5K vs. $5.6K)
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- Caleb Williams ($5.6K vs. $7.1K)
- Najee Harris ($5.6K vs. $6.6K)
- Brandon Aiyuk ($6.4K vs. $7.6K)
- Rome Odunze ($5.2K vs. $6.4K)
- Kyle Pitts ($4.8K vs. $5.9K)
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Williams - Moore ($12.3K, $13.6K)
- Daniels - McLaurin ($12.3K, $14.7K)
- Rodgers - Wilson ($13.1K, $15K)
- Fields - Pickens ($11.2K, $12.9K)
- Watson - Cooper ($11.7K, $13.3K)
- Carr - Shaheed ($11.4K, $13.7K)
Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)
- Jayden Daniels ($6.5K, $8.2K)
- Caleb Williams ($5.6K, $7.1K)
- Bo Nix ($5.1K, $4.9K, $6.6k)
- Carson Steele ($5.5K, $5.8K)
- Braelon Allen ($5.4K, $6.2K)
- Bucky Irving ($5.3K, $6K)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7.5K, $8.2K)
- Xavier Worthy ($5.7K, $6.2K)
- Brian Thomas Jr. ($5.4K, $5.8K)
- Rome Odunze ($5.2K, $6.4K)
- Xavier Legette ($4.8K, $5.2K)
- Ladd McConkey ($4.8K, $5.7K)
- Brock Bowers ($5.6K, $6.5K)
Alright, that's it for Week 4 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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