RADIO
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Presidents Cup
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Presidents Cup
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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Field
Field Size: 24
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 11
Last Five Winners of the Presidents Cup
| 2022 | USA Win | 17.5 to 12.5 |
| 2019 | USA Win | 16 to 14 |
| 2017 | USA Win | 19 to 11 |
| 2015 | USA Win | 15.5 to 14.5 |
| 2013 | USA Win | 18.5 to 15.5 |
Expected Cut-Line At The Presidents Cup
| 2023 | |
| 2022 | |
| 2021 | |
| 2020 | |
| 2019 |
Team Event - No Cut
Royal Montreal Golf Club
7,279 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bent/Poa
I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Royal Montreal | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 283 | |
| Driving Accuracy | 61% | |
| GIR Percentage | 65% | |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
You are going to notice this consistent trend of the International squad not being able to keep up with the USA on the high-end marks. However, I thought they held their own very well in a lot of these categories because of the depth they had on the team.
Strokes Gained: Weighted Tee-To-Green (10%)
Strokes Gained: Weighted Tee-To-Green With Bentgrass Rough (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Bent/Poa (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Long Par 70s (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Fairway + ATG Bunker Play (10%)
What The Numbers Mean?
When I ran a projected model of all players out of the 30 points available, here is how the results were simulated:
All Players Counting (No Optimal Consideration Of Teams) - USA 17.1 to International 12.9
High-End Options Only (Best Consideration Of Teams) - USA 18.42 to International 11.58
As expected, the USA's advantage was most pronounced due to its strength at the top. We see that with the strong tandems of Scheffler/Burns and Cantlay/Schauffele leading the way as the two units that will be used heavily over the opening three days.
While I believe those factors could potentially turn this into a runaway, the International side kept an expected range of losing by 4.2 to 6.84 points for the week. I get that it isn't exactly a winning combination, but potential suboptimal builds from the USA team and home-field advantage for the International side should play a small factor in keeping these teams in more of a battle than expected.
Bets OR DFS Plays That It Favors?
When trying to figure out DFS plays or wagers, I much prefer backing some of the International players since their squad has more unknown variables than what we will get out of the USA.
Scheffler/ Burns
Schauffele/Cantlay
Morikawa/someone
We are going to see those combinations rolled out repeatedly over the opening three days. Markets such as 'Top USA Scorer' will leave much to be desired since names like Russell Henley might not be able to get in enough matches to truly be competitive in any situation that doesn't result in full-blown anarchy within the squad.
I will be looking to fade some of the high-end International names like Tom Kim (slightly below neutral on Sungjae Im, too), but the value starts to pop over and over again when diving into Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners, Jason Day, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Byeong Hun An.
That doesn't mean every single one of those names will find success, but 1. you will get leverage and value in DFS and 2. the potential to land a surprise 'Top International Scorer' if anyone shows form early.
We don't know exact pairings yet for Thursday, but Hun An and Conners are two names I am backing at 9 and 16 to be 'Top International Scorer' once we get confirmation that they are going to be active on Thursday.
| Bet | Risk | Odds | Win |
| Corey Conners Top International | 9 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| Byeong Hun Top International | 16 | 0.12 | 1.92 |
Model Ranks
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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